The NBA world is at a standstill for the time being, with more uncertainty than ever regarding if and when the remainder of the 2019-20 season will resume amid the coronavirus pandemic.
While NBA league owners and Adam Silver remain hopeful that the league will be able to resume at some point (even if it comes in the late summer) to complete the 2020 season, a dramatic loss in league revenue over the upcoming months is all but a certainty. While that situation won’t have any impact from a fan standpoint when play does return, there will be a trickle-down effect to the 2020-211 salary cap and how both teams and players will approach the 2020 offseason (whenever it does occur).
A reminder on where things stand for the Celtics payroll picture heading into this offseason.
Under contract for 2020-21
Kemba Walker ($34.3 million)
Gordon Hayward ($34.1 million – player option)
Jaylen Brown ($23 million)
Marcus Smart ($13.4 million)
Jayson Tatum ($9.8 million once team option is picked up in October)
Daniel Theis ($5 million – team option)
Enes Kanter ($5 million – player option)
Romeo Langford ($3.6 million)
Vincent Poirier ($2.6 million)
Grant Williams ($2.5 million)
Robert Williams ($2.0 million once team option is picked up in October)
Semi Ojeleye ($1.8 million non-guaranteed)
Carsen Edwards ($1.5 million)
Guaranteed money committed if Hayward opts out: $95.8 million to ten players
Guaranteed money committed if Hayward opts in: $129.9 million to 11 players
Guaranteed money committed if Hayward and Kanter opts in: $134.9 million to 12 players
Projected salary cap for 2020-21 as of January: $115 million
Projected luxury tax for 2020-21 as of January: $140 million
The current salary cap and luxury tax numbers are certain to go down ahead of the offseason, the question by how much. It’s far too early to tell specifics given how much of the number is dependent on final season revenue numbers but a drop in the $5-10 million dollar range down to a cap between $105-110 million range is a fair guess according to NBA cap expert Albert Nahamd.
Based on those revised numbers, let’s visit again some of the scenarios that both players and the team will have to grapple with in a changing financial environment for the league.
PLAYER OPTIONS
Gordon Hayward ($34.1 million)
BSJ reported last month that the Celtics were interested in a long-term relationship with Hayward and it’s more likely than ever now (close to 100 percent) the 30-year-old will exercise his max player option for next season. A reduced salary cap combined with a very limited list of teams with significant cap room already this summer makes the odds of Hayward turning down that type of money minuscule for the open market.
The Celtics may consider offering him a long-term deal for a smaller annual salary to help reduce what could be a hefty tax bill (more on than later) but finding middle ground there that’s appealing to both sides could be a challenge, especially if the Celtics are facing a higher squeeze over the long-term financially.
The odds were always in favor of Hayward opting in this year barring an All-Star season for the swingman. While he’s played some of the best basketball of his career in stretches this year, injury issues have prevented him from putting together a huge bounce-back campaign. A standout postseason (if there is one) may lead to a last-second change of heart but Hayward’s best financial gameplay will be to stay put in Boston for one more year.
Impact: Almost certain to opt-in
Enes Kanter ($5 million)
The big man signed a modest two-year deal with a player option last season for the room-level exception with Boston, likely largely with the intention of securing a bigger deal for himself this summer. He was well on his way to achieving that goal after playing two months of great basketball for Boston (at least offensively) after coming back from a knee injury.
That calculus changed for Kanter however following a hip injury in January. He’s been an afterthought in the rotation since then, playing under 10 minutes in six of Boston’s last 11 games before the NBA stoppage. Kanter’s inability to produce effectively on offense combined with his defensive woes gave way to increased playing time to other bigs on the bench. A clean bill of health may change that when the season resumes but Kanter’s defensive warts won’t change much at age 27.
The problem for Kanter now is that with a reduced salary cap figure that pushes many teams closer to tax territory, there may not be 5 million per year for him on the open market next season if he opts out. If Robert Williams can stay healthy alongside Daniel Theis and Grant Williams, there may not be a ton of minutes for Kanter in Boston either, putting Kanter is a tricky spot if he’s searching for opportunity. The 6-foot-10 center could bet on himself and look for a more defined role elsewhere but the free-agent market will be packed with non-shooting bigs in his mold that are becoming less valued in the NBA. The guess here? Kanter takes the guaranteed payday amid an uncertain salary climate barring a standout postseason.
Impact: Likelier to opt-in
TEAM OPTION
Daniel Theis ($5 million)
Analysis: This is a nice placeholder deal for the Celtics, who will have plenty of flexibility with the 6-foot-8 German. Theis has had a strong year and asserted himself as a main center in the rotation, making this type of salary a bargain for Boston even with the cap shrinking.
Impact: None, team was picking up anyway
DRAFT PICKS
Barring a major standings shakeup and lottery luck, the Celtics will have three first-round picks in the 2020 NBA Draft. Those selections will have a combined salary-cap hit of $7.5 million based on the 120 percent estimate of each draft salary slot (17, 24, 30). The front office had little interest in bringing aboard three new rookies to a team that already has half of its roster filled up with first or second-year players currently. However, a lowered salary cap and luxury tax threshold may make the incentive for the Celtics to dump these draft picks for future ones or consolidate them a higher priority a bigger goal.
The reason for that? The Celtics will already have $134 million committed to 12 players if Kanter/Hayward opt-in and that’s without even using the team’s taxpayer mid-level exception ($6 million). Boston ownership will be spending over two dollars for every dollar spent at that point and that’s a hefty price to pay for late first-round rookies that probably won’t be helping out the current team too much while developing at the bottom of the depth chart in 2020-21.
There will be plenty of ways for the front office to relieve this burden (draft-and-stash, trading out for future picks, trading multiple picks for one higher pick) but a far lower luxury tax threshold will create a greater sense of urgency on this front if the C’s want to add in the free-agent market as well and avoid a huge tax bill.
Impact: Celtics will be looking to trade picks on draft night
Other NBA News and Notes
—ESPN analyst Doris Burke revealed she had contracted COVID-19 on the Woj Pod but appears to be recovering well. Best wishes to one of the best color analysts in the game.
—Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell and Christian Wood have all fully recovered from coronavirus after two weeks of self-isolation. Knicks owner James Dolan became the first pro stateside owner to announce his a diagnosis.
—The Chinese Basketball Association pushed back its planned resumption of league play to May after original setting a target date of April 15. Games have been canceled in China since the outbreak began back in January.
—The postponement of the Tokyo Olympics to 2021 combined with a change to the NBA calendar in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak may halt the availability of many NBA players from taking part in the games for the first time in over 30 years.