At first blush, the idea is crazy and doesn't make a lot of sense.
Cam Newton signing with the Patriots? Watching No. 1 lined up under center — actually, mostly in the shotgun with the read-option — just doesn't feel at all natural for the franchise.
Drew Bledsoe to Tom Brady to Cam Newton, the icon wannabe? This guy?
Doesn't seem to mesh with Bill Belichick, either. Bernie Kosar and Vinny Testaverde were his starting quarterbacks with the Browns. Talk about a departure from Belichick's norm.
Before the Patriots would even consider signing Newton, who turns 31 in May, he would need to agree to the following:
- Take a cheap ($5-7 million) prove-it deal for at least one year;
- There is a competition for the job, no one is given anything, not even a former NFL MVP;
- Be willing to sit for a time to start the season if there's little training camp;
- Take a physical, possibly even a private workout;
- Complete buy-in to the team concept, and no special privileges;
- No more texting in wingdings.
https://twitter.com/RayNeutron/status/778691209120264192
I don't even know if it would get that far. Newton might balk at one or all of those conditions.
But if he's that humbled and hungry, a Patriots and Newton shotgun marriage just might work and be the team's best chance to remain a contender after Brady's departure — and some of those reasons are rooted in on-field football.
Here are the reasons it could work, and the reasons why it would be a tough fit.
THE CASE FOR NEWTON IN NEW ENGLAND
1. He can deal with the Brady shadow: Having Jarrett Stidham as the guy after Brady, entering just his second season likely with no offseason, is virtually unfair. He's in, basically, a no-win situation. I'm sure Stidham can handle it, but if the Patriots do think he has starter potential down the road (and I've been told that), it might be better to shield him from this first season and let him keep developing on a slow track.
If there's any player in the NFL prepared to deal with the spotlight and the scrutiny that will come with following No. 12, it's Newton. He's been in the spotlight since college, has been ripped to shreds in the limelight, and it really hasn't affected him all that much. Newton has always marched to beat of his own drummer, and he wouldn't spend much time thinking about Brady and being the guy that follows him. Having Newton as a lightning rod might help the entire team, let alone Stidham.
2. Newton has owned the Patriots (and Ravens, Steelers & Chiefs):
It's a small sample size at just two games, but Newton has saved his best performances for the Patriots and Belichick. We all know how Belichick can be swayed by how players perform against him — and the pre-game study that comes with playing against them. Belichick knows how much of a pain it is to defend Newton (along with similar players) and Belichick might be intrigued enough to see what it's like from the other side.
[table id=431 /]
Belichick has been a fan of Newton's in the past.
"I think he’s playing very efficiently," said Belichick in 2017. "He does a good job. He’s obviously a threat with the ball in his hands to run. He can make all the throws. He can put the ball on the sideline, he’s got a lot of zip on the ball down the field and he’s a good outside thrower, good deep-ball thrower. Whether it’s designed runs or scramble runs or loose-type plays, he’s been effective on all those. They’ve been playing from ahead a lot this year and I think that, again, for a quarterback managing the game, getting the win for the team, doing the right thing in the right situation is a lot more important than individual stats. I think he’s done a good job of that for his team, making good decisions, doing things that help the team win. He’s avoided mistakes that put the team in difficult situations so I think he’s playing very well, as is the rest of his offensive team.
"I think that a lot of the plays that Carolina runs we’ve seen from Buffalo and the Jets. They run a lot of under-center plays too, they’re not in the gun nearly as much as teams like Philadelphia and Buffalo. So, they have a good mixture in the running game and their passing game. They’re balanced. They do both out of both. They run and throw under [center] and run and throw in the gun and they have a nice mixture and a group of complementary plays running strong side and running weak side with their counter plays and things like that. They’re a well-balanced team."
In 2015, referencing the '13 game: "That last one we played against them came right down to the end, a lot of situational plays that they made, we didn’t make. You’ve got to expect those types of games every week. I mean, we’re playing against a really good team. I mean, Cam [Newton]’s one of the great players in the league."
3. Newton has owned the AFC East: Additionally, Newton has been at his best against the AFC East and North. Again, small sample sizes, but it's a good sign.
[table id=432 /]
4. Newton was really good — as in, playing the best football of his career — the last time he was healthy in 2018: I'm going to let our friends at FootballOutsiders.com take this part, because they're way smarter than I am. From their 2019 Almanac:
The easy explanation for the reversal (6-2 to 7-9 in 2018) is Cam Newton’s declining health. That Week 10 Thursday night road trip to Pittsburgh shortened Newton’s recovery period between games, vital for the quarterback as he nursed a lingering shoulder issue that had first appeared on the injury report after the Eagles game. Newton never looked the same after the blowout loss, and the powder keg offense became more of a powder puff. After four straight weeks above 29.0% DVOA, the Panthers pass offense would not reach that level once between Week 9 and Kyle Allen’s Week 17 start against the Saints backups. Newton’s arm strength, already in question after Taylor Heinicke had been put in for a Hail Mary attempt against the Ravens, became a glaring problem: his DVOA on deep passes declined precipitously, from 42.3% in Weeks 1-9 to -79.5% from Week 10 to Week 15, and he did not complete a single pass over 25 air yards in the final six games of his season (0- for-7, one interception). His overall passing DVOA declined from 13.2% in Weeks 1-9 to -18.7% in Weeks 10-15; to put that in perspective, it was almost exactly the difference in passing efficiency between Andrew Luck and Blake Bortles. Newton was finally deactivated for the final two games of the season, had shoulder surgery in January, and the team hopes to have him back at full health for 2019.
...
If they can get their quarterback healthy and keep him that way, last season provides compelling evidence that the results could be spectacular. As mentioned above, before the shoulder injury sapped him of his arm strength, Newton’s 13.2% passing DVOA would have been comfortably the best of his career. His previous best, 7.6%, was enough for him to win the league MVP as the Panthers reached the Super Bowl. The four games from Weeks 6-9, in which he averaged 51.2% DVOA, was the third-best passing stretch of Newton’s professional career, comparable to any four-game slice from that MVP campaign. (His best stretch was Weeks 11-14 of 2012, his second season, when he averaged an astounding 64.8% passing DVOA.) When Newton opined before the Week 13 disaster against Tampa Bay that he was playing the best football of his career, he was not without justification.
"I’m playing my best football of my career, because I know what I’m doing,” Newton says. “I’m not guessing. Coach [Ron Rivera] has created an environment where you’ve got a bunch of selfless, talented guys, and that’s key to winning. No matter how good you are, everybody’s working towards the greater good of the team. And for me, being the quarterback, obviously a lot more responsibility is thrust on what I’m supposed to be doing.
“But it’s not pressure, because I know what I’m supposed to be doing.”
Asked to affirm the self-assessment, that Newton is better than ever, (Ron) Rivera responds, “Without a doubt. Without a doubt.”
__________________________
As you can see, there are a lot more positives than negatives with the possibility of Newton joining the Patriots — but the negatives are potentially huge and non-starters.
But the idea is very intriguing and, given the right price, should at least be considered by the Patriots.
If the Patriots are really interested in competing at the highest levels this season, there's little doubt that an on-board Newton would give them the best chance. His appearance alone would give the offense much more room to maneuver and ability to spearhead a multi-facted running game would be a great boon to a defense that could use more time off the field, and make for a well-rounded Patriots team. Plus, Newton could be the shield to give Stidham the right atmosphere to develop — to say nothing of the Patriots striking gold with Newton and extending him in 2021 when they have $100 million in cap space.
A cheap, committed, hungry and humble Newton could be the perfect bridge (maybe more) for the Patriots.