Patriots Future: Could Bill Belichick and the Patriots largely punt on this year's draft?

Continuing our occasional series looking at what lies ahead for the Patriots in the post-Tom Brady Era.

Part I: New England has positioned itself to remake franchise in 2021 and beyond

So when going through the 2021 depth chart for the Patriots — all 30 players — one question kept coming back to me:

How are they going to fit any draft picks on this year's roster?

Let me explain why that question kept coming up — and it really didn't have anything to do with wanting to prove Tom Brady wrong, or any of that nonsense that is more sports talk radio fodder than anything else. There are a few different points to make.

The pandemic

We've already reported that NFL teams are preparing for no football-related activities until at least Aug. 1. That means no rookie minicamp, no OTAs, no hanging around and working out the facility, etc. And that's the best case. It's probably just as likely the NFL plays a half-season — or even less.

Talk about stunted growth. It would make

most players rookie seasons a waste, and you'd have to create roster space just to keep them in the program. Nevermind the teams that just won't feel comfortable picking players due to the changes in the evaluation process (lack of pro days and in-person visits).

Of course, the smart thing, if things get really bad, is for the NFL to basically create roster exemptions for up to, say five draft picks. They wouldn't count against the roster.

But if something like that doesn't happen — and it's hard to believe teams could enter the draft next month knowing that is set in stone — then you're looking at, basically, a redshirt draft class.

Nevermind the teams that just

The salary-cap situation

The Patriots currently have less than $1 million in cap space, and there's little doubt they will create more, most likely through a trade or extension of Joe Thuney, extensions for Stephon Gilmore and Dont'a Hightower, and possible post-June 1 releases of Marcus Cannon and/or Mohamed Sanu.

Still, even after they create more space, the cap is going to be a factor when it comes to the draft classes because, a) creating roster space by releasing a veteran will incur a dead-money hit (for example, Cannon would be $2.5 million; Patrick Chung $2.53 million) the Patriots really can't afford (they already have $26 million in dead cap right now), and b) the Patriots will need some cap space to sign a regular draft class.

Last year, the Patriots needed $2.7 million to sign 10 players. Right now they have 14 picks, but most of those are in the later rounds so figure the Patriots for a little less ... $2.5 million or so.

The roster

I've updated the color-coded chart (man, is there a lot of orange for players in their final years).

Here's the visual depth chart, with players who are virtual locks for the 53-man roster in bold.



Here's that list, which has 49 of 53 sports virtually locked up — and that's leaving off guys like Deatrich Wise, Derek Rivers, Korey Cunningham and Gunner Olszewski who could all make the team.

[table id=430 /]

Any quibbles with the names on the list?

That leaves, really, only four open roster spots. There's no point in drafting 10 players if you're going to have to cut most of them loose. Doesn't make much sense.

So when you put together the pandemic, the cap and the depth chart, it really seems like the Patriots appear to be headed toward quality over quantity, if not punting on this draft altogether.

Given the ample roster and cap space next year, it would make much more sense for the Patriots to grab a few targeted players this year — yes, even a big jump up for a quarterback — and then flip picks and/or players for better picks in the 2021 draft.

Right now, the glaring depth issues this draft would likely address:

Tight end (double-dip this year?)
Linebacker
Wide receiver (since it's a deep draft there)
Center
Edge
Safety
Defensive tackle

If I'm the Patriots, I might just be targeting a few choice guys at those spots, even just a few of them. Otherwise, I'm trying to position myself the best I can in the 2021 draft. If Jarrett Stidham doesn't work out, I could be using a bunch of picks for a QB. Extra draft picks would also allow me to trade for players on expiring deals next offseason.

Like we said on Thursday, 2021 seems to all be about max flexibility for the Patriots. And that appears to include the draft as well.