You know, aside from the whole suspended season, threat of no Stanley Cup and a looming expansion draft in 2021, Don Sweeney and the Bruins should be breathing a little easier when this offseason finally arrives.
I kid, I kid. After all, we don’t know exactly when we can expect a regular offseason — given that there’s a viable scenario in which NHL clubs are battling for Lord Stanley’s Cup in the mid-to-late summer or early fall.
But, when the offseason does come around (Stanley Cup or not) the Bruins are in a rather favorable position — capable of retaining most of their talent thanks to a hefty amount of dead money coming off the books, and a nice boost in the league’s salary-cap limit.
Well, at least that was the thinking a couple of weeks ago.
Earlier this month, at the conclusion of the league’s GM meetings down in Boca Raton, deputy commissioner Bill Daly said that the $81.5 million cap limit set for the 2019-20 campaign would jump to anywhere between $84 to $88.2 million for the 2020-21 season.
The final total would be calculated by just how much the NHL Players’ Association opted to inflate the upper limit, but even at the lowest estimate of $84 million, the Bruins had to feel as though they were in a good spot as far as keeping the band together for at least a couple more seasons.
But now, that salary-cap boost is far from a guarantee. Given the circumstances, keeping that ceiling at the same $81.5-million threshold might very well be the best-case scenario for the league and teams at this point — even if it creates a slew of new headaches this offseason.
Since Daly's hopeful fiscal declaration, the NHL — and most of the world — has been turned on its head by the COVID-19 pandemic, indefinitely suspending all athletic events and decimating the economy.
Given the major hit toward the service industry and other sectors — coupled with the obvious loss of revenue from the NHL's work stoppage (with a return date still uncertain) — all prior estimates in terms of a salary-cap boost might as well be thrown out the window. As such, what should be a fruitful offseason for many contenders could suddenly devolve into a nightmare scenario if that $81.5-million cap is suddenly reduced to account for the loss of profits.
Granted, the NHL's cap ceiling has yet to drop since it was first introduced following the 2004-05 lockout. Following the 2012-13 lockout season, both the NHL and the NHLPA agreed to keep the cap at the same level set during the last full season in 2011-12 ($64.5 million) for the 2013-14 campaign.
Ultimately, a flat cap of $81.5 million in 2020-21 would be a godsend over potentially dipping back down into the $70 million range again. Still, that extra $2.5-6.7 million in cap space based off Daly's initial projections would have come in handy this offseason for Boston, especially with the number of pending free agents Sweeney has to deal with — headlined by Torey Krug.
Aside from Krug and the large payday he's expected to receive this summer (or whenever the 2020 offseason begins), Zdeno Chara, Jaroslav Halak, Kevan Miller and Joakim Nordstrom will also hit the open market, while four more regulars on Boston’s NHL roster are set to enter restricted free agency in Matt Grzelcyk, Jake DeBrusk, Anders Bjork and Karson Kuhlman.
Back when we thought Boston was going to be gifted with much more financial flexibility this summer, we did our best to project which free agents Boston would retain and what their new contracts would count against the cap, at least on an annual basis:
Here's what we came up with:
Torey Krug — $7.5 million AAV
Zdeno Chara — $2 million AAV - with additional performance bonuses
Jake DeBrusk — $3.5 – 4 million AAV
Matt Grzelcyk — $2.75 million AAV
Anders Bjork — $1.5 – 2 million AAV
Karson Kuhlman — $1 - 1.2 million AAV
Elsewhere, we tabbed Kevan Miller and Joakim Nordstrom as departures, due in large part to the amount of depth present in Boston's D corps and the bottom-six unit. While Halak has been a key cog over the last two seasons, he very well could be out of Boston's reach if another club offers him starter money. As such, we figured it'd be prudent to wait and see how much cap space Boston might have available before tossing out potential numbers on Halak's new deal.
Now, let's say that this current stoppage didn't occur, and the league and NHLPA approved that whopping $88.2 million cap ceiling next season. If such was the case, the Bruins would likely be doing somersaults.
Boston is already due to free up some major cash regardless of the cap ceiling's movement. Over $3 million is set to become available when both the final years of Dennis Seidenberg’s buyout deal and Matt Beleskey’s deferred salary are cashed out for good this offseason. The departures of Miller and Nordstrom account for another $3.5 million. The Bruins will also only be on the hook for $1.5 million of David Backes’ $6-million cap hit next season — while the Nick Ritchie / Danton Heinen swap also cut another $1.3 million off of Boston's books.
(Photos of Bruins cap situation courtesy of CapFriendly)
With those extra savings and a new $88.2 million cap limit, that would give Boston about $26.9 million to work with this offseason.
Now, we add in the projected free-agent contracts: Krug ($7.5) + Chara ($2) + DeBrusk (3.75) + Grzelcyk (2.75) + Bjork ($1.5) + Kuhlman ($1.0) = $18.5 million.
In total, Boston would have around $8.4 million remaining to re-up Halak, save some for additional money for RFA deals down the road or perhaps even prowl the market for another scorer. Hell, even if the cap limit was low balled at $84 million — Boston would still have over $4 million in space to work with.
But now, such luxuries might not be on the table thanks to what should be a much lower cap limit for next season.
Even with all that money cleared off the books, Boston is still looking at a major salary crunch if the cap limit ends up holding steady at $81.5 million. If that cap limit remained the same — and we added all those projected free-agent contracts back on the payroll — it would leave Boston with only $1.7 million remaining for the rest of the offseason.
That would mean no Halak, obviously — or perhaps Boston opts to save some cash for the future and not offer Krug a long-term deal worth $7 million or more annually. There's plenty of concern when it comes to how long a player with a profile like Krug can last into his 30s, but if the B's want to maximize this short 2-3-year window, they'd ideally want Krug manning the blue line for the next few years.
So, to put it lightly, if/when NHL hockey finally returns from this long hiatus, the aftershocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and dashed revenue streams will be felt for a long time.
At this point, biting the bullet and standing pat with that $81.5-million ceiling might be the most welcomed result, given that a dip in the cap limit could really hamstring some clubs — and force Boston and other contenders to subtract from their roster in order to fall within that limit.
Now, Boston would not be alone when it comes to cap woes if that $81.5 million limit remains intact next year. In fact, the Bruins might be in a better spot than plenty of other Cup favorites.
The Maple Leafs are going to be on the prowl for defensive help this offseason, especially with Tyson Barrie and Cody Ceci heading out the door. But with over $75 million already committed next season — including $40.3 million to four players — Toronto is going to be in cap hell if it has to deal with that $81.5 million figure again.
Tampa Bay was already in line for a salary dump even if the cap limit jumped up to $84-88.2 million, given that the Bolts already had over $76 million committed for next year with Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak all set for additional pay raises as restricted free agents.
The Islanders ($71.3 million committed next season) will have to open their wallet for RFA Mathew Barzal, while Ryan Pulock is also in line for a nice RFA pay bump. The Blues ($73 million committed next season) might not be able to retain their captain, Alex Pietrangelo, after the defenseman hits free agency this offseason.
Do the math — and the Bruins and that $1.7 million in cap space might make them one of the few "winners" in what could be an offseason with plenty of painful upheavals.
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