With just over six weeks remaining in the regular season, playoff races for spots and seeds in both conferences are heating up. Several of those battles have an underlying potential impact for the Celtics in both the present and the future. Let’s focus on what teams are worth watching in the next month-plus to examine what’s in play for Boston down the stretch and into the postseason.
Western Conference playoff race for No. 8
Just two weeks ago, the Memphis pick situation looked disappointing for Boston, as the Grizzlies headed into the All-Star Break with nearly a six-game lead over the field for the final playoff spot in the West.
A tough schedule remained for Memphis however in the second half of the season, and that slate — combined with a knee injury to Jaren Jackson Jr. (out for at least two weeks) have started to bring them back to the pack. The Grizzlies lost five straight games coming out of the break before stopping the bleeding with a win over the Lakers Saturday night. However, their playoff lead has been cut in half in just 10 days and the road does not get much easier from here.
Only three of the Grizzlies' final 22 opponents (NYK, ATL X 2) are not in a playoff race, giving them the third toughest schedule remaining in the NBA. The Kings, Spurs and Pelicans have all pulled within three games of the Grizzlies already with the Blazers sitting just 3.5 games back.
Just a couple weeks ago, it was hard to envision Memphis falling to lower than the No. 13 slot in the draft even if they did make the playoffs, given how much ground they had ahead of a West lottery pack. The injury to Jackson changes things on that front. He’s their best frontcourt player this year and the Grizzlies don’t really have anyone that can match him as a stretch shooting threat as a big. Combine that with rookie power forward Brandon Clarke being sidelined for two weeks, and that’s trouble for the Memphis offense and potentially good news for Boston.
Sacramento, New Orleans, Portland and San Antonio all are among a group of ten teams with the softest schedules remaining for the rest of the regular season. It’s not inconceivable that more than two of them jump the Grizzlies if the Jackson/Clarke injuries linger late into March since that will truly test their frontcourt depth.
Injuries are impacting some of these squads as well (JJ Redick, Damian Lillard, Richaun Holmes, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jakob Poeltl have all missed time) but there are head-to-head matches still on the calendar for Memphis against all of these teams on their tail. Ja Morant’s ability doesn’t rule them out from holding onto their playoff spot entirely but falling to the No. 11 or No. 12 spot in the lottery in this year’s draft is now in play if a number of these teams get hot down the stretch. For the moment, Sacramento and New Orleans look like the favorites to pass them, which could help boost the C’s draft stock for 2020 in the process with a pick in the early teens instead of the middle of the first round.
Which East team is falling to No. 6 seed in playoff race?
We all know the Celtics and Raptors will be duking it out for the final six weeks in hopes of landing the No. 2 seed for the numerous incentives already in play at that spot (easier first-round opponent, homecourt advantage in second-round series). However, the possibility that the loser of the No. 2 seed could end up facing the preseason East favorite in the Sixers in the 3/6 matchup is now in play after injuries continue to pile up for Philly.
Ben Simmons (back) and Joel Embiid (shoulder) are both out indefinitely (with re-evaluations set next week) and Philly lost another starter to a concussion on Sunday in LA once Josh Richardson went down.
Currently, the Sixers still hold a 1/2 game lead over the Pacers for the No. 5 seed but it’s far from a lock they hold onto that with their top offensive options for the foreseeable future appearing to be Tobias Harris and Al Horford. There’s a lack of reliable depth and firepower within this group and given their road woes all year long (9-22), the timing to lose the two All-Stars is brutal in the midst of a five-game West Coast trip.
The saving grace for Philly may ultimately be their schedule, which is the third easiest remaining in the NBA. However, the Pacers have started to right the ship (three straight wins) after losing Jeremy Lamb for the year and will certainly want to avoid playing Boston or Toronto in the first round over their final 22 games.
Indiana’s remaining schedule (7th toughest in NBA) favors the Sixers holding onto that spot but that also assumes Philly gets healthy sooner rather than later this regular season, which seems far from a guarantee.
For now, nothing is certain about the No. 6 spot, which makes the fight for No. 2 more important than ever for Boston to avoid the doomsday scenario of matching up with a recovered Sixers squad in what would be a first-round war.
The C’s control their own destiny on that front over the next 23 games with the pending return of a healthy Kemba Walker. Taking care of business now will make the path to an Eastern Conference Finals matchup with the Bucks a heck of a lot easier.
Other NBA News and Notes
- Three new names were added to the free agent market before the March 1st playoff eligibility deadline this weekend in Allen Crabbe, Anthony Tolliver and Troy Daniels. All three are perimeter threats but their defensive weaknesses may compel Boston to pass on all of them. None are good enough for meaningful rotation minutes right now in Boston.
- J.R. Smith and Dion Waiters are reportedly set to work out for the Lakers this week after they opened up a roster spot by waiving Daniels.
- Jordan McRae is heading to the Suns after getting waived by the Nuggets. McRae fell out of Denver's rotation quickly after being acquired at the trade deadline and will look for some minutes in Phoenix to bolster their floundering playoff hopes.
- Malik Monk was one of the few bright spots in Charlotte this season over the past month thanks to his scoring breakout, but his season is over after being suspended indefinitely for violating the league's anti-drug program.