A year ago at this time, the Red Sox were trying -- unsuccessfully, as it turned out -- to figure out how to defend their World Series title.
The team's ill-fated plan to preserve its starters was the center of attention. But the larger point was that it widely assumed the Sox would, at the very least, get back to the postseason.
That didn't happen of course. The Red Sox never gained much traction, never enjoyed a hot month, and finished a distant third in their division -- barely above .500 and far removed from contention.
A chaotic offseason followed, with the naming of a new front office executive, the trading of its best player and (arguably) its third-best starter, and eventually, with a new manager.
The slashing of payroll -- the Red Sox will open the 2020 season having committed some $40 million less than they did a year ago -- along with the loss of Mookie Betts and David Price -- has dropped expectations to their lowest since perhaps 2016, when the Sox were coming off two straight last-place finishes.
On paper, the Yankees appear to be the best team in the American League, and a strong case could be made that the Tampa Bay Rays, winners of 96 games last year, are the next best.
Where does this leave the Red Sox?
Red Sox ownership and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom have stated publicly that they fully expect the team to be competitive. Then again, that's something they likely feel obligated to say. With some of the game's highest ticket prices (including a poorly-timed increase this winter), they're not about to tout the virtues of a "bridge year.''
So, where does this leave the Red Sox? Is there a scenario under which the Sox could surprise everyone and find themselves in the race -- if not for the division, then for a wild card spot -- late in the season?
"I supposed anything's possible,'' said a skeptical talent evaluator. "They would have to get big bounce-back years from both (Chris) Sale and (Nathan) Eovaldi. The lineup is still very good, even with the loss of Betts. They're going to score a ton of runs. But again, so much is dependent on having the (rotation) stay healthy.''
Baseball Prospectus, through its PECOTA projections, has the Red Sox pegged to finish 84-78 (rounding up their figures), good for third in the A.L. East -- the exact same record that they had a year ago -- and with a 28.6 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason. The Sox are within one, two or three games of projected win totals of other wild-card contenders like Tampa Bay and Los Angeles (87 each), Cleveland (86) and Oakland (85).
That would suggest there is a path, even if it's not an obvious, or even likely, one.
Over the course of a long season, health is one of the toughest variables for which to account. Freak injuries can occur out of nowhere and change the course of a pennant race.
But the past can also be prologue. And it's here that it gets dicey for the Red Sox.
If it's assumed that, indeed, health of the starting rotation is the No. 1 key for the Sox remaining competitive, recent history doesn't offer much encouragement.
Sale hasn't been healthy in the final two months of either of the last two seasons -- felled by a shoulder injury in 2018 and elbow troubles last year. And even before 2018, Sale had a history of diminishing returns in August and September, with his lanky body wearing down from big workloads.
In that sense, perhaps the flu/mild pneumonia that struck Sale in early February and will cost him at least his first two turns in the regular season, can be a positive in the long run. Time will tell.
Eovaldi's history is even more ominous. He's had just one season in which he's totaled more than 155 innings (199.2 in 2014 with Miami). In the last four seasons alone, he's undergone no fewer than three elbow procedures: one Tommy John surgery and two follow-up surgeries to remove bone chips. That hardly augurs well.
If the Red Sox can be fortunate enough to get, say, 55 starts combined from Sale and Eovladi, that might be enough to propel them into contention. But that doesn't end the questions about the rotation. Martin Perez may be excited to work with Pedro Martinez, but that will mean little if he can't improve on his 5.12 ERA of a year ago
Then there's the vacant -- for now -- fifth spot. Will that spot go a holdover such as Brian Johnson or Hector Velazquez? Or to a newcomer like Chris Mazza, Matt Hall or Austin Brice? Or, in time, a rookie like Tanner Houck? Then again, the Sox could try their luck with an opener. In all likelihood,
The team's depth has improved -- in the outfield certainly and potentially behind the plate. The bullpen, a complete unknown a year ago, performed well in the second half, though it will be incumbent upon both Josh Taylor and Darwinzon Hernandez to demonstrate there was nothing fluky about what they accomplished last season.
Finally, there's the chance of unexpected contributions from rookies. Bobby Dalbec, for one, could offer a power bat in the second half of the year.
If one cedes the Yankees, Twins and Astros their respective division crowns and the Rays can lay claim to one of the wild card spots, the Red Sox would have to be better than the Indians, White Sox, Angels and A's to snag a spot in the playoffs.
Likely? Probably not.
Doable? Certainly.
Bottom line: presuming to know how an upcoming season might play out over six months is an inexact science at best, even with advanced metrics and the latest in scientific projection models.
And part of the fun is letting a season unfold -- full of surprises, unexpected turns and developments no one saw coming.
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- Luis Severino is done for the season with Tommy John surgery.
- Giancarlo Stanton suffered a strained calf and won't be ready for Opening Day.
- Aaron Judge remains sidelined by a shoulder injury.
- James Paxton underwent back surgery in early February and likely won't be available until May or June.