Catching up on some of the recent Patriots news and interpreting what exactly is going on, starting with that quarterback guy.
So the drums are beating overtime that Tom Brady will be leaving the Patriots.
You have ESPN's Jeff Darlington basically as the point man for Team Brady saying it's more probable than not Brady is playing elsewhere next season and that the quarterback is telling other people this. Karen Guregian of the Herald says it's not looking good. There are various other reports that the Patriots are looking to rebuild and that Brady won't be back with the Patriots.
There are a couple of factors why I wouldn't panic quite yet over these Brady reports, and some of it has to do with Darlington — someone I worked beside at the Palm Beach Post and against on the Dolphins beat.
There are a couple of things you need to know about Darlington that provides some needed context to all this. No. 1, Jeff is an excellent reporter and one of the best Big Story reporters I've been around. When we worked together at the Palm Beach Post, a Dolphins player went AWOL from the team. Jeff tracked him down and interviewed the player in his apartment. It was a great piece of reporting. He does that kind of outside-the-box thinking, and also looks down the road and identifies the big story and how he's going to report on that.
Jeff has done that in this case. He has obviously cozied up to those essential people who are part of Team Brady — likely his handlers — and finagled it so he's sort of their mouthpiece. It's easier for a national reporter to do that because Brady and his team knows if he does that with a local reporter, then he risks pissing off the rest of the beat. It often works this way with big-name players. They respect the local reporters so they don't want to single one out. That's why they turn to a national reporter or two, plus ESPN is the biggest megaphone so you can get the message out in one fell swoop.
That being said, Darlington has one weakness — or at least he used to — that could do himself a disservice in this story: he goes all-in with his sources to the point where he could be used and not really know it. I'm not saying that's happening here — I'm sure Jeff is being told these things by Team Brady — but Team Brady has its own agenda and they wouldn't clue Jeff in on that. Every reporter runs that risk.
There's also the combine setting. From what I'm hearing, there are not a lot of contract discussions going on in Indianapolis because of the uncertainty over the CBA. Specifically, the Patriots don't see much use in talking with Brady about a contract yet because they have no idea whether or not there will be a new CBA — and the team almost certainly needs one to get a deal done with Brady, something I reported two weeks ago.
Don't believe me? Normally at this point of the combine, you hear about Player X definitely going to Team Y. There's been none of that talk this week because the CBA could change everything — and the start of the new league year could be pushed back. You can listen to certain radio hosts that don't think this is a factor and believe in the Drew Brees comparisons that really have no relevance here, or you can believe someone who really knows.
This sounds like Team Brady being pissed off that they haven't heard from the Patriots and as of today, right now, they're out the door. But things can change.
The other thing about the combine? There are a bunch of reporters there and they're all talking to each other, including other agents with their own agendas and it becomes a garbage disposal of rumors, especially those reporters who don't have much experience with this, or are looking for any news to report.
Nothing is getting done this week. Wait until the circus leaves town and then the real market reveals itself. It's still expected that the Patriots are going to sit down with Brady at some point. Maybe they make a pre-emptive move for a receiver trade in the meantime to change things.
The other part of this is, what is Brady's market, really?
The Titans are definitely for real and a threat in all this. Mike Vrabel wants to be in the Brady market and the questions this week annoyed him for that reason.
Brady's really going to go to the Raiders where they have a terrible defense and a worse defensive scheme that's never won anything? No way. They're better off with Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, or using their two first-round picks to trade up for Tua Tagovailoa as Carr's successor.
Tampa Bay certainly has weapons and an improving defense, but Brady is not playing for the Bucs. No way.
The Colts would make a lot of sense but they seem to be more involved in Philip Rivers, as they should be. And it's hard to see Brady in the horseshoe helmet.
The Giants are in a rebuild. Doesn't make sense. Same with Miami and Washington.
The Chargers should be a contender and will make a hard push for Brady, according to league sources. But that could be a hard sell compared to New England.
Teams that could be laying in the weeds and looking to pounce: Denver and Chicago. John Elway said this week how much he loves Drew Lock, but Elway's not an idiot and knows Brady gives him a better chance to win a title ala Peyton Manning. Ryan Pace seems to be going down with the Mitch Trubisky ship, but the only way Pace can save face to ownership and the fans is to land Brady for two years. That would be the prudent move.
Things I'm hearing about other Patriots free agents
- There's mutual interest in having Devin McCourty back but that could hinge on the Brady negotiations. If Brady's gone, they're likely going to spend more on the defense again.
- Joe Thuney has generated a ton of interest and could break the bank with a new guard record of $15 million per season.
- Kyle Van Noy's market is not as hot as initially thought but that could also change quickly and likely will in the tampering period.
- Phillip Dorsett is as good as gone.
- Jamie Collins hasn't seen a robust market yet and could be back.
- Danny Shelton could return but his move to Drew Rosenhaus could put the onus on money. Plus, Shelton brings more pass rush than most interior linemen.
- Ted Karras has generated some interest and could find a starting spot somewhere as there's a dearth of talent on the interior of the line around the league.