Let’s get the obvious out of the way.
Take it away, Rick:
“Chris Krieder is not walking through that door. Kyle Palmieri is not walking through that door. And Josh Anderson is not walking through that door.”
The dust has settled on an afternoon in which 50 different players swapped sweaters ahead of the 3:00 p.m. league-mandated trade deadline, and the 2019-20 Bruins are in a better spot than they were just a couple of days ago … even if names like Ondrej Kase and Nick Ritchie don’t exactly resonate the same way as some of the aforementioned trade targets listed above.
Don Sweeney might not have stolen any headlines during this latest trading frenzy, but the underlying numbers spin a pretty positive return on what the Bruins acquired for:
David Backes (75 percent of his remaining contract)
Danton Heinen
Prospect Axel Andersson
A 2020 first-round selection
But are both Kase and Ritchie — two solid additions to Boston’s middle-six grouping — going to be enough to put this bunch over the top?
A 39-12-12 Bruins club hasn’t exactly been saddled with too many flaws this season. The Bruins’ battled-hardened veteran core still hasn’t lost a step, anchored by a top line that has generated a plus-18 goal differential in 570:55 of 5v5 ice time.
On defense, the Bruins are relinquishing a league-low 2.41 goals per game, while Tuukka Rask (.928 save percentage) has once again put himself at the forefront of Vezina Trophy consideration.
After a 24-game baptism by fire last spring during Boston’s eventual failed run in the Stanley Cup Final, the B's cluster of young talent has continued to turn the corner and morph into impactful NHLers. Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo have become top-four cogs on the blue line, while Jake DeBrusk is on pace for another 25-goal campaign. Anders Bjork has turned heads for the strides made in his defensive game and David Pastrnak is still on pace for … let’s see here, oh — 59 goals this season. Not too bad.
But the current leader in the race for the Presidents Trophy is far from impervious to whatever the rest of the league will throw at them this postseason.
After getting knocked on the ropes by a heavy Blues club last June, Boston still often finds itself on the wrong side of the tale of the tape when sizing itself up against clubs like the Washington Capitals — a potential foe in the coming months.
The arrival of Charlie Coyle and the emergence of a player like Bjork have stabilized the B’s middle-six to a degree, especially in terms of extending O-zone possessions. But the ongoing vacancy to David Krejci’s right and the overall lack of finish in the middle-six were still prominent faults that needed to be addressed — and stood as the root cause for how a loaded club like Boston is somehow just 27th in the NHL in expected goals scored per 60 minutes.
Kase and Ritchie may not be as sure a bet as what a player like Kreider or Palmieri would have brought to this club — but a quick-skating, shoot-first winger like Kase and a 230-pound power forward with a knack for generating quality looks around Grade-A ice in Richie do check off a couple of the boxes that Sweeney was looking to address.
Health remains a concern for Kase, but the winger has a shot-first mentality that could translate next to Krejci. A deep dive into Kase's advanced stats tells the story of a snakebitten winger that could break out when surrounded by legitimate top-six talent (a folly out in Orange County) — with his 5v5 shots per 60 minutes rate of 10.38 ranking 15th among all NHLers (min. 500 minutes played). The lone Bruins skater that sits ahead of him on that list is David Pastrnak (10.8).
That shot volume had often translated to 5v5 production, given that Kase's individual 5v5 points per 60 minutes (2.23) ranked higher than Jamie Benn (2.22), Phil Kessel (2.22), Mikko Rantanen (2.13) and Vladimir Tarasenko (2.09) over the previous two seasons.
"He’s played in different roles, whether it’s playing higher in the lineup so to speak with a (Ryan) Getzlaf type, he has finished," Sweeney said of Kase. "His expected goals are generally at the top of his grouping. A lot of that is five-on-five. He has played some power play, secondary power-play units. But he does drive puck possession, positive impact at both ends of the ice in five-on-five situations. He’s been a player that’s been in the top of his categories in five-on-five production over the last three years per 60 minutes.
“Shooting percentage is down a little bit than previous years, so we wondered if there’s some puck luck that’s gone against him this year. But he’s a volume shooter. You look at his shot metrics in that he’s increased his shooting volume over the years, it’s continued to go up."
The evolution of Bjork as a two-way weapon made Heinen's place in this lineup expendable, but Ritchie is far from just a big body tasked with beating down the opposition over some grueling playoff series.
Much like Kase's favorable 5v5 numbers, Ritchie is another weapon that could provide a shot in the arm to Boston's shockingly low expected goals rate. With his shots coming from an average of 25.9 feet from the net, Ritchie has consistently generated quality looks this season in Anaheim — with individual 5v5 expected goals per 60 minutes rate of 0.87 — ranking 28th overall among NHL forwards (min. 500 minutes played). That's tied for tops among all Bruins skaters with ... you guessed it, David Pastrnak.
"It was an area we felt like we needed to address from some interior-ice play, size and strength. Net-front play.Contested puck battles. Things that we feel Nick will bring to the table for us," Sweeney said of what Ritchie will bring to the club. "He's done it in Anaheim and we think he'll address some of those needs for us moving forward."
Add in the fact that these deals managed to shave both $1.3 million off the books in Heinen's contract — and $4.5 million in David Backes' final contract year — and these moves set up Boston to contend both this year and in the future. Sweeney has a busy offseason in front of him with Torey Krug headlining unrestricted free agents and RFAs in Bjork, Jake DeBrusk, Matt Grzelcyk and others all due for raises.
But with close to $24 million in cap space now projected to be available, Boston stands a good chance at retaining most of its assets in 2021 and beyond.
https://twitter.com/bruinscapspace/status/1231996091089981440
The Bruins addressed some much-needed issues dragging this club down, but an active deadline hasn't done much to move the needle one way or the other in terms of determining a Cup favorite out of the Eastern Conference.
While Boston improved, so did just about everyone else:
- Tampa Bay (arguably Boston's top threat) added size and scoring punch in Blake Coleman, along with heavy hitter Barclay Goodrow for a first-round pick (Yuck.)
- Washington added even more size on the blue line in Brenden Dillon, while also plucking Ilya Kovalchuk from Montreal.
- The Penguins loaded up their forward corps — acquiring Jason Zucker, Conor Sheary, Evan Rodrigues and Patrick Marleau over the past two weeks. The Islanders added Jean-Gabriel Pageau down the middle from Ottawa, while a Carolina club hanging on to one of the Wild-Card spots dealt for Sami Vatanen, Vincent Trocheck and Brady Skjei.
