The NHL trade deadline is set for Feb. 24, but based on how active the phone lines have been in the days leading up to the cutoff date — many Cup contenders might be forced to sort through the scraps by the time Monday afternoon rolls along.
When the Lightning surprised many by pulling the trigger on a deal for Blake Coleman on Sunday night, it sparked a fire sale that has enveloped the entire league — with frantic dealing and swaps stuffing the transaction wire over the last couple of days. Since Tampa's trade, names such as Tyler Toffoli, Brenden Dillon, Dylan DeMelo and Marco Scandella have all found new homes, while the Bruins' list of available trade targets continues to shorten with each passing day.
Coleman and Toffoli stand as missed opportunities to address the elephant in the room that is Boston's 2RW spot, while a physical, big-bodied blueliner like Dillon could have checked off a couple of boxes for the B's when it comes to adding some brawn and D-corps stability before playoff hockey returns to the Commonwealth. The fact that the likes of Coleman and Dillon are now suiting up for arguably Boston's top obstacles in the East in Tampa Bay and Washington makes it an even tougher pill to swallow.
But, with more than five days to go ahead of the deadline, Don Sweeney and the Bruins still have plenty of time to swing for the fences and add a top-six weapon – and it appears as though the B's have their sights set on the top prize on the market.
According to TSN's Frank Seravalli, the Bruins have emerged as one of the frontrunners for New York Rangers forward Chris Kreider, with the Colorado Avalanche tabbed as the other favorite to scoop up the coveted power forward. As the rumor mill continues to churn, other teams linked to Kreider included the nearby Islanders and the reigning Cup champion St. Louis Blues.
https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1229857773149663232
Given Boston's need to shore up that vacancy to David Krejci's right, it should not come as much of a surprise that the Bruins are at the forefront of any rumored deal for Kreider, who has tallied 23 goals and 43 points over 57 games with the Blueshirts this season. Along with his proven offensive numbers (he's scored 20+ goals in five of his seven full NHL campaigns), Kreider has both the size (6-foot-3, 217 points) and speed that can tilt a team's fortunes over the course of a physical, seven-game series.
Add in the fact that Kreider is a Boxford native and BC product, and what's not to like about Kreider donning a black and gold sweater in a couple of days?
The price could be it.
Even before the trade market started to heat up earlier this week, it already seemed like a given that the Rangers were going to get a haul for Kreider — who, for all intents and purposes, should be viewed as a rental. A pending unrestricted free agent, it seems likely that Kreider will command at least $7 million annually on whatever new deal he inks this summer.
But even with Kreider's lack of term, the Rangers' asking price was always likely going to revolve around a first-round pick and additional assets. Now, considering the high price teams have paid for players like Coleman (a first rounder and Tampa's top forward prospect), that cost might be even higher.
So would it be worth it for the Bruins to deal away a first-rounder and potentially more in order to bring Kreider aboard?
Well, it depends. If Boston doesn't want to cash in some of its more valuable trade chips, then perhaps settling on wingers like Josh Anderson and Ondrej Kase will be the route that Sweeney takes. But if Sweeney is willing to put that first-round pick and more on the table, you can't go wrong with what Kreider brings to an offense.
Kreider, currently on pace to tally a career-high 33 goals this season, is a consistent driver of 5v5 offense — with the 28-year-old winger ranking 54th among all NHL forwards (min. 300 minutes played) in 5v5 points per 60 minutes at 2.23. Only Brad Marchand (2.9) and David Pastrnak (2.8) have higher 5v5 scoring rates on the Bruins.
When it comes to adding a spark up front, Kreider stands is about as sure of a bet as there is. However, there are a few issues down the other end of the ice. Now, the Rangers' defense has been pretty bad this season (3.09 goals against per game - 19th in NHL), but New York has been particularly vulnerable when Kreider has hopped over the boards.
(For reference on Micah Blake McCurdy’s individual impact charts via Hockey Viz — On the offensive side of things, you’d want to see a player providing positive numbers — with the red blobs signifying where the team is generating a majority of their shots from whenever said player is on the ice. Defensively, negative numbers are a sign that a team is snuffing out opposing scoring chances whenever said player is on the ice. As such, the blue blobs represent where the opposition’s shots aren’t regularly coming from. As seen above, opponents are generating plenty of excess shots right around New York's net when Kreider is on the ice. Now, the Rangers' defense also isn't all that great when Kreider isn't on the ice, either. But that spike is pretty noticeable).
Yes, perhaps Kreider's lackluster defensive numbers are just a testament to the lack of defensive talent around him in the Big Apple, and should balance out on a defensive-minded club like the Bruins. But if the Bruins are going to be dealing a first-round pick and more to acquire a game-changer up front, is there another player that could offer even more value?
Kreider would still be a great coup for the Bruins, but don't sleep on a player like Devils winger Kyle Palmieri — who, like Kreider, will cost a pretty penny, but offers much more for Boston in terms of value and defensive contributions.
Unlike Kreider, Palmieri is signed through the 2020-21 season at a reasonable cap hit of $4.65 million — giving the Bruins a top-six solution that won't need to be re-addressed this offseason. Offensively, there's still plenty to like about a player like Palmieri, who is on pace for 31 goals and 58 points this season. But what makes Palmieri stand out — aside from his contract — is his ability to leave his mark down both ends of the ice.
Among Devils players that have logged at least 300 minutes of ice time this year, Palmieri ranks first in both points per 60 minutes (2.61) and 5v5 expected goals against per 60 minutes (2.12). In other words, Palmieri has been the best driver of offense for New Jersey, while also leading the team when it comes to negating quality scoring chances from the opposition during 5v5 play.
(For Reference: Expected goals accounts for both shot quantity and quality by factoring in multiple shot factors, including the type of shot, distance from the net, angle, 5v5, power play, penalty kill, etc. As such, a player with a low expected goals against means that opposing teams aren't generating good looks when he's out on the ice).
That's a rare blend of stats for one forward to lead a team in, especially on a roster in New Jersey with a horrid defense (3.41 goals against per game - 30th in NHL).
In fact, there are only 10 (!) forwards in the entire NHL with a points/60 rate at 2.61 or higher and a 5v5 xGA/60 rate of 2.12 or lower:
- Sean Couturier
- Mark Stone
- Max Pacioretty
- Tomas Tatar
- Evgeni Malkin
- Nikita Kucherov
- David Pastrnak
- Brad Marchand
- Patrice Bergeron
- ... and Kyle Palmieri
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, Sean Tierney and HockeyViz.
