Everything with the Patriots this offseason will revolve around the quarterback position. And while I still believe the odds are greater Tom Brady returns than not, the Patriots themselves are going over their options right now in the name of due diligence, so we might as well do the same.
We're not going to get into the big names (Philip Rivers, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Tannehill, etc). who might be available — they're in their own category, looking for major dollars, and they might quickly be crossed off the list before Brady's fate is even known — or the draft picks because those decisions come down the road after free agency.
Here, we're going to look at the rest of the available quarterbacks — those the Patriots would realistically give some consideration to — and put them into different categories, including starters, bridges, competition and revisiting some favorable draft evaluations.
DAY 1 STARTERS, BUT MAJOR CAPITAL INVESTMENT
If acquired, these players would be viewed as the no-doubt starters in training camp.
Taysom Hill, Saints: Considering he'll be 30 next season and has never been a starter, there is obviously risk here but if you're contemplating signing him to an RFA offer sheet, you are pretty confident in his ability to be an immediate NFL starter. The Saints will no doubt tender him at a first-round level and as long as you structure the contract in a certain manner (i.e. not how the Patriots handled the Emmanuel Sanders offer sheet), they might have trouble matching it, especially if Drew Brees is coming back for another season. The Patriots could construct a multi-year agreement and if the Saints decline to match, the Patriots would have to part with the 23rd overall pick. I think you'd do that for your next quarterback, who has shown at least some ability to play in this league. This would be a total Belichick move. Considering Hill's immense versatility (even special teams), the coach would probably be all right with any deal — even if, say, Jarrett Stidham or another drafted quarterback wins the job a year or two down the road. Belichick would probably be just fine with investing in Hill because he'll get his money's worth in one way or another.
Gardner Minshew, Jaguars: Jacksonville is in a tough spot because Foles — the QB they wanted to invest in — has to be on the roster for at least another season due to his cap hits. I wouldn't give up Minshew for anything (not many teams would), but that might not be the case for a GM in David Caldwell who likes to prove himself right. He bet big on Foles and that's tough to explain away. You might be able to get Caldwell to bite on a first-round pick (either this year or next year) so he can show Shad Khan what a great return he got on a sixth-round pick while also arguing that Foles is still the starter for this team.
Case Keenum, Redskins: I think Keenum has gotten a bad rep because he's been on some really bad teams, but his stats have always been solid. I mean, that Washington team was terrible this year and he still managed to complete 64.8 percent of his passes and put up a 91.3 passer rating. Imagine what he might be capable of with a real organization and team around him. He's an unrestricted free agent, so no hoops to jump through.
Nick Foles, Jaguars: The only way this happens, with the Jaguars now being up against the cap, is if the new CBA comes through and the post-June 1 designation comes back because even a trade would leave the Jaguars with an $18.75-million cap hit (a straight release right now would have another $15 million hit because his salary is guaranteed for this season. But it's definitely worth making a call on both Jags QBs ... remember, Foles did rifle you in the Super Bowl.
A BRIDGE TO SOMEWHERE?
You're not really investing in them all that much so they can easily moved aside for Jarrett Stidham or another young quarterback at some point.
Jacoby Brissett, Colts: Indianapolis knows that Brissett isn't a franchise quarterback in their system after this past season so they should be in the market for one of the veteran quarterbacks that are available. If the Patriots are looking for a bridge quarterback, they could certainly do worse than Brissett, who already knows their system and has won a game in it. A trade is the best route as Indianapolis would net $11 million on their cap.
A.J. McCarron, Texans: The Patriots have been sniffing around him for a few years. Considering his background with Nick Saban, and after playing a year in the Patriots' system in Houston, there would be worst choices to look at. Certainly a winner with a good team around him when he played for the Crimson Tide.
Tyrod Taylor, Chargers: The Patriots have had plenty of looks at Taylor over the years so there's enough intel there for them to make a quick decision. Doubt he checks all their boxes, but I would guess they would think he's a guy they can win with. If LA gets a franchise veteran quarterback, the smart move for them would be to still draft one, which would make Taylor expendable. If Belichick and Josh McDaniels always pined for an athletic quarterback in their system...
Nick Mullens, 49ers: Forced into action on a bad 49ers team as a rookie after Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt, Mullens completed 64.2 percent of his passes and had a rating of 90.8. He's still just an exclusive rights free agent so you would have plenty of time and control to see what might be there. You figure he'd be further along than Stidham, but it would at least make for a good competition.
DESPERATE TIMES CALL FOR A COMPETITION
Quarterbacks with some experience and upside who would compete with Stidham for the starting spot in camp.
Marcus Mariota, Titans: NFL quarterbacks are very often the product of their environments and Mariota had about the worst you can have so far in his career. Basically, if you were writing a book titled, "How To Screw Up Your Young Franchise QB," what the Titans did to Mariota — five offensive coordinators in five seasons — would be Chapter 1. He's not the alpha the Patriots like in their quarterbacks, but he's a leader, a worker and has a ton of talent that is just waiting to be unlocked by the right offensive coordinator. Certainly worth a look.
Josh Rosen, Dolphins: I did an entire breakdown of Rosen last offseason and I still think, depending on what they think of his intangibles, Rosen is worth some development. Plus, he just came from a season with Chad O'Shea so he's had a start in a system similar to the Patriots offense. No way you count on him being a starter, but it would be good competition for Stidham.
Blake Bortles, Rams: Doesn't figure to have the mind to operate the Patriots' system even at half speed, but man he has a ton of talent both throwing the ball and running with it. If Doug Marrone could nearly get Bortles to upset the Patriots at Gillette in the AFC Championship Game, there has to be something there worth taking a look at.
Chase Daniel, Bears: Very short (6 foot) to run the Patriots' system but he spent years around some great offensive minds — Sean Payton, Andy Reid, Doug Pederson, Frank Reich, and Matt Nagy — so it wouldn't be a lost cause to bring in the unrestricted free agent for a competition.
Alex Smith, Redskins: Attempting a comeback from a major injury so while the upside is there, he'd barely be considered competition if he's acquired.
Kyle Lauletta (Adam Richins for BSJ)