Why Gordon Hayward's long-term future in Boston looks promising after trade deadline

The trade deadline every season has the potential to make a lasting imprint on both the present and future. Look no further than last February when a flurry of big deals (Tobias Harris, Kristaps Porzingis) changed gameplans for franchises heading into the summer.

There was a bit more of that at the 2020 trade deadline, albeit to a lesser degree when it comes to star power. Golden State and Minnesota traded high priced young talent in D’Angelo Russell and Andrew Wiggins. The Pistons dumped Andre Drummond for nothing to have a chance at some cap room in July. The Celtics sat things out again at the deadline for the fourth straight year but that did not mean their future wasn’t potentially impacted last week by the maneuvering of other teams ahead of 2020 free agency.

BSJ spoke with Gordon Hayward earlier this month about his future in Boston with a looming $34.1 million player option for 2020-21 that he has until June 29th to pick up. Hayward will be eligible to earn up to $40.25 million per year on a max contract as a 10-year veteran in his nex deal if he declines his player option this summer.

“What I want to do is help us win a championship here this year,” Hayward told BSJ. “That's our goal as a team, and I think that starts with trying to get better each day and focus on the game at hand. All the other stuff, you deal with as it comes to you. Right now, I'm trying to just play my best basketball and help our team.”

A league source confirmed to BostonSportsJournal.com the Celtics remain very interested in bringing back Hayward over the long-term whether or not he elects to pick up that option this summer. Price point is always going to be an area of concern for the C’s with future deals though as seen last summer when the team declined to match the hefty four-year $109 million offer from the Sixers on Al Horford (and also give up the assets necessary to make a sign-and-trade to keep Horford and bring on Kemba Walker).

After injuries slowed him down early on, Hayward is playing some of the best basketball of his career this season, posting career-highs in rebounding (6.5 per game and efficiency (51.2 percent from the field.) while sacrificing some of his shots within a loaded starting unit. Based on that, it’s still possible that Hayward could command another hefty long-term deal on the open market this summer within a weak 2020 free agent crop if he sustains those kinds of numbers and has a strong postseason.

The question most Celtics fans should be wondering, of course, is what competition will the Celtics in order to retain his services if he foregoes a hefty player option and hits the open market. The list of potential suitors changed dramatically last week after the trade deadline.

Let’s take a closer look at how the trade deadline changed things and why it’s probably good news for the C’s odds of keeping Hayward.

Teams projected to have significant cap space in 2020 before trade deadline

Atlanta: $70 million
Memphis: $50 million
Cleveland: $30 million
Charlotte: $27 million

New York: None-$51 million (depending on how they handle team options)
Phoenix: Up to $27 million (if they let go of Saric, Baynes)

Teams projected to have significant cap space in 2020 after trade deadline

Atlanta: $50 million
New York: $0-50 million (depending on if team options are picked up)
Detroit: $35 million
Miami: $27 million
Charlotte: $27 million
Phoenix: Up to $27 million (if they let go of Saric, Baynes)

Hayward will be eligible to earn up to $40.25 million per year as a 10-year veteran in his next contract if he declines his player option this summer. It’s hard to envision him getting that type of dough as a 30-year-old with a risky injury history but will there be a market for him in the $30-35 million per year range on a long-term deal? Let’s examine some of the franchises that have some significant cap room to see if there is a looming threat that the C’s should be worried about in the same mold that the Sixers were last year for Horford.

Atlanta Hawks (up to $50 million in cap room): Their trade deadline signaled a movement towards winning now by adding veteran centers in Clint Capela and Dewayne Dedmon to go with their younger core. They could certainly use a playmaker on the wing like Hayward, but that also ignores the fact they spent two lottery picks last year on young wings in De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish. Throw in the fact that their entire core is 23 and under and that makes it a tough sell to offer big long-term money to a guy in Hayward who may begin his decline before Atlanta’s best players reach their prime.

This isn’t a great fit from Hayward’s perspective either if winning is a priority. He could help this team get into the playoffs in the East but not much more than that in the short term. Hard to see a good fit here for either side even though Hayward could use them as leverage if they are desperate to win now. The fact they spent so much of their open cap space on centers was great news for Boston though at the trade deadline.
Threat level: Low

New York Knicks $0-50 million (depending on if team options are picked up): They will have two first-round picks (No. 6 and No. 25) that will eat up some cap room but waiving a number of team options (Portis, Gibson, Ellington) will open the door to max cap room. With no stars in place here, trying to hand a fat offer to Hayward could be in play but there are also a couple of young wings in place here as well in RJ Barrett and Kevin Knox. I’m also not sure Hayward even turns this group in a playoff team so I can’t imagine he would want to spend the rest of his prime dealing with young talent and overpriced veterans.
Threat level: Very low

Detroit Pistons ($34.3 million): A core of Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose and Gordon Hayward may have held some appeal five years ago. Now? That’s a lot of injury risk for a franchise that looks set on going younger after dumping Andre Drummond for nothing at the trade deadline. A 30-year-old Hayward does really fit into the young shift this team could make and again why would Hayward go here to finish his prime if he wants to win? They do have big money to spend though so an eye should be kept on them as leverage against Boston in negotiations.
Threat level: Very low

Miami Heat ($26.5 million): The runner up in the Hayward sweepstakes three years ago turned some heads at the trade deadline when they managed to cut the contracts of Dion Waiters and James Johnson next season, freeing up nearly $30 million in cap room for next summer. They could get another $10 million in cap room by dumping Kelly Olynyk’s contract elsewhere (doable with a sweetener) but a lack of draft compensation makes that tougher than normal.

Unlike other teams on this list, the Heat are in win-now mode and are clearly help in high esteem by Hayward. Could Pat Riley steal another key free agent from the Celtics again? It depends on what his gameplan is. Going for Hayward this summer on a big long-term deal would eliminate a chance to add another max name in all likelihood in the summer of 2021 when a host of bigger names hit the market including potentially Giannis Antetokounmpo. I can’t see the Heat giving up a chance at those guys to form a good but not great core of Butler/Hayward/Adebayo. The Heat also may be more interested in retaining some of their own key free agents at cheaper (Goran Dragic, Jae Crowder) than spending all their cap room on Hayward.

The guess here is Miami has bigger plans than Hayward but you can never rule them out.
Threat level: Medium

Charlotte Hornets ($25.7 million): Hayward signed an offer sheet here once before but if they weren’t willing to pay Kemba Walker last summer, why would they be willing to big money to Hayward?
Threat level: Very low

Phoenix Suns ($24.8 million): The Suns could clearly use him but getting to $30-35 million in cap room here is tough without a lot of maneuvering. There’s some wing talent as well in place with Kelly Oubre/Mikal Bridges but no one is on Hayward’s level obviously. I’d guess there isn’t much appeal for Hayward with this core but this is a team desperate to win now. Wouldn’t be surprised if they clear out some more cap room to make a big offer to a star-level name which could create some leverage for Hayward in negotiations with the C’s.
Threat level: Low-to-medium

Final thoughts

All things considered, the Celtics have to be feeling good about their standing with Hayward heading into the summer. He may end up just opting into his player option outright with this lackluster group of teams with cap room or the Celtics could try to engage him on a long-term deal at a favorable price ($25 million annually?) that could help them lessen a potential luxury tax bill in the short term. With Atlanta using a huge chunk of their cap room and Memphis no longer looming as a cap space threat after the trade deadline, there are few real threats out there beyond Miami to try to pry Hayward away. Assuming the C’s have a successful postseason (East Finals?) the odds are increasing that Hayward will have a stay in Boston that goes far beyond this season.