NFL Notebook: Will lessons from Peyton Manning, Brett Favre help or hurt Tom Brady vs. Patriots?

When it comes to Tom Brady's impending free agency (if he gets there; I still don't think he will), there are only two recent comparables in the NFL: Peyton Manning and Brett Favre. Other than that, it's pretty much uncharted territory when it comes to aging, established franchise quarterbacks.

So it would be very much in Brady and agent Don Yee's interest to revisit the lessons learned during those transitions and apply them to Brady.

Probably the two biggest takeaways from Manning and Favre had to do with areas that will be of importance to Brady: Manning's selection process, and Favre's power play.

But if Brady has plans of using their playbook, he may end up out of options and facing retirement.

Team Brady has let it be known far and wide that a) Brady negotiated the lack of a franchise tag on purpose and intends to use it, and b) Brady is looking forward to the free-agent process and wants to be wined and dined.

In theory, that's great and Brady is certainly entitled to that. Manning went through the courtship process and ended up with a great situation: a place, in Denver, that allowed him to basically transform the offense, put talent around him and paid him.

Brady's probably looking to do the same thing, if he's eyeing a departure from the Patriots. What Manning did was the ideal. But it was also a completely different situation, one that really has no bearing on Brady.

The Colts, after Manning's neck injury, had moved on and were all in on Andrew Luck. The Colts were completely out of the running, so Manning was on his own timetable. He could take his time, a few visits and pricey dinners, and then make a decision. He could pit teams against each other.

Brady can't follow that playbook. The Patriots are heavily involved, Bill Belichick is on the other side, and there's very much a timetable.

If you think Belichick is going to stand off to the side, like some wallflower, and watch Brady dance with six other teams come the start of free agency on March 18, then you're delusional. If Brady thinks he's going to have a Manning-ish tour with the Patriots waiting in the wings, he can forget about. There hasn't been much conversation to this point, but at some juncture, the Krafts are going to have to get word to Brady that there will be a deadline on his decision. They might let him go through the tampering period for a day or two, but at some point the Patriots are either going to make an offer or expect Brady to come to them with an offer to match.

Why? There's no way Belichick is going to go into free agency without knowing who his quarterback is. He's not going to wait days or even a week to hear from Brady while all the other options dry up and he's left overpaying in a trade to get Jacoby Brissett back at a ridiculous number.

No. There will be a firm date and time the Patriots want an answer from Brady, and it's not days after free agency starts.

Then there's the Favre play. Favre retired from the Packers — mostly because Mike McCarthy and Ted Thompson would no longer kiss his feet and beg him to play since they felt Aaron Rodgers was ready — but in the back of his mind, he felt that as soon as he started the wheels in motion to return, the publicly owned Packers would cave to public pressure and welcome him back. But that didn't happen, not in private while he was still on his farm, and not when he jetted into Green Bay at the same time as the family night scrimmage to report and put the squeeze on the Packers. Trust me, a majority of the fans wanted him back and it basically created a civil war within the fanbase and at training camp practices. But the Packers didn't yield, they stuck to their guns.

Brady probably thinks that, indeed, the Patriots will wait for him to make a decision, even after free agency starts. Why? Because how many Patriots fans do you think would be opposed to Brady coming back to the team at any point ... 5 percent? 10?

Imagine this ... the Patriots draw a hard line on a Brady deal and that ticks him off, and he says, "Screw it, I'm seeing what's out there ... there's no way they're going to piss off all those fans and make a move without me deciding my fate. It would be a PR disaster for them."

If McCarthy, Thompson and shifty Mark Murphy held firm on Favre, who basically rescued the franchise and funded the renovation of Lambeau Field ... you don't think Bill Freaking Belichick is going to move on from Brady in some fashion when there's a chance Brady might not return? There's no way.

And the Patriots, behind the scenes, know there's only one real option for Brady: The Chargers, who are expected to come hard and heavy after him.

Brady is not going to Oakland Vegas to pair with Jon Gruden and run his offense with all that verbiage.

Brady's not going to Tennessee, where teammates told me Brady thought their offensive system during joint practices was laughable and whose offensive personnel could never run the passing offense to Brady's specifications.

It will come down to the Chargers, who desperately need Brady to have any chance in Los Angeles but whose ownership has a terrible reputation around the league. Sure, there are weapons Brady would love to work with, but he's going to work hand in hand with offensive coordinator Shane Steichen on the offense?

Or the Patriots, where it's his offense with Josh McDaniels at his side, and just about everyone returns (Julian Edelman, Mohmed Sanu, N'Keal Harry) and are now healthy? Find a tight end or two (Patriots found two in the draft in 2010) and a speed element or two, and suddenly the Patriots are back to being dangerous.

Which team would you pick if you were 43 and had one or two years, really, left?

If Brady isn't cognizant of these realities, if he's dead-set on taking his visits like Manning and relying on the Krafts getting weak in the knees and forcing Belichick to bring him back, then Brady could very well be left with the Patriots moving on like the Packers, and being forced to playing in a place he really doesn't want to be, like Favre in his New York year.

And then, really, the only option for Brady might be retirement. It doesn't have to get to that point if Brady plays ball with the Patriots, which is likely what the team is banking on.

XFL STARTS

The new spring league starts this weekend and some of the early reviews (I haven't watched yet), seem to be positive. We'll have more in the coming weeks on it, but here are the Patriots connections to know:

DC Defenders: RB Nick Brosette, LB Scooby Wright

Like Brosette in camp as a third-down back and deserves a chance to show what he can do. Wright was a late camp add last year when injuries were a problem on the edge.

Houston Roughnecks: DE Kony Ealy

One of the worst trades the Patriots have ever made, Ealy never got comfortable in the scheme and was released in 2017. Not a bad player, and this could be a ticket back.

Los Angeles Wildcats: LB Anthony Johnson, DC Pepper Johnson, DB coach Otis Smith.

For some reason, Johnson was never allowed back into the family even with all the departures on the defensive side of the ball. Must be some bad blood there.

St. Louis BattleHawks: LB Steve Beauharnais.

Undersized seventh-round pick in 2013 lasted a season but just didn't have it physically to stick in the league.

Seattle Dragons: RB Kenneth Farrow.

Didn't show anything when he was here in 2018.

Tampa Bay Vipers: OT Martez Ivey, WR Ryan Davis.

Ivey didn't make much of an impression here last year in camp, but Davis has some potential as a former teammate of Jarrett Stidham's at Auburn.