At the risk of inviting a bunch of That Didn't Age Well! tweets after the conclusion of Super Bowl LIV on Sunday night — hey, go big or go home, right? — I can't shake one overriding thought when it comes to the matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers ...
Kyle Shanahan is going to be the person everyone is talking about come Monday.
It could be for the wrong reason — heck, he was a central figure of 28-3 (but it was actually Dan Quinn's colossal failing in-game management) — but that's not what I believe.
I think come Monday, people will start to realizethe scope of what Shanahan has done in just three short seasons in San Francisco.
A lot of people are mesmerized by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense. And they should be. What Andy Reid has done meshing the West Coast Offense with college trends has been amazing — and, yes, I mocked Reid naming Brad Childress his "spread game analyst" way back when. It turned out to be a masterstroke. While many of Reid's fellow West Coast acolytes have been ride-or-die with the system — Mike McCarthy and Jon Gruden, among others — Reid adapted to the modern age and it has also been carried forward by Doug Pederson and Frank Reich.
Swapping out defensive coordinator Bob Sutton for Steve Spagnuolo also likely caused the Chiefs to take another step to the Super Bowl this season.
And Mahomes is the closest NFL equivalent of an NBA superstar who can carry a team to victory almost by himself. That could definitely happen.
But this 49ers team is different. I don't think people fully comprehend how complete a squad this is, but they will by the end of the game. And it's 100 percent by Shanahan's design.
"He has a certain style and feeling about how to run a team," said Brian Hoyer, who was with Shanahan in Cleveland and San Francisco. "He knows what he wants and I think he has a vision for it. That’s starting to come together for him."
Shanahan is lacking the monster X receiver he had in Julio Jones — they really wanted to be but weren't included in the Odell Beckham trade discussions — but has the type of tight end he wants in George Kittle. He drafted his speed receiver in Deebo Samuel. He traded for Emmanuel Sanders to give him a smart possession receiver. He has speed to burn at running back in Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman — specifically to give him the option to put both of them on the field at the same time against teams, like Minnesota, that leave their linebackers on the field. The 49ers have a great offensive line that runs varied blocking schemes. And, thanks to a gift from Bill Belichick, Shanahan found the perfect mobile/accurate quarterback with leadership in Jimmy Garoppolo to distribute the ball to all the weapons and run the play-action game.
To me, this game is a referendum on old school vs. new school football. The 49ers have a huge advantage — one of the largest in Super Bowl history — along both lines. San Francisco has a huge offensive line (RG Mike Person is a big weak point, however, and that could be an issue against Chris Jones), and the Chiefs were pulling people off the street in an attempt to stop the run. The same goes for the Kansas City offensive line, where I don't see any way that the middle three of LG Stefen Wisniewski, C Austin Reiter, and RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif can hold up against the 49ers' vaunted defensive line for very long.
And then there's Shanahan's mind, which doesn't have many peers beyond Belichick. Yes, he's that good. Shanahan is in complete control of the game — on occasion, he gets too buried in his playsheet — and in tune with what's going on in all phases of the game.
The big thing here, when you go against Reid and Spagnuolo — and this is where the Patriots have been caught against Reid with the Chiefs and in the Eagles Super Bowl — you have to let your imagination run wild. All coaches can look at the film of an opponent and figure out how they attacked a similar defense or offense. You know how smart coaches have attacked your team and can be prepared for that.
But when you play a Reid offense, you have to be able to anticipate what you're not seeing on film and have an answer for that. This is where Shanahan shines and, might, have an advantage on Belichick and his coaches. The Patriots have, in the past, suffered from a failure of imagination — with the Eagles' Super Bowl standing out.
"I’ve been banging the drum on Kyle for the last five years," said former NFL quarterback Chris Simms, a former college teammate of Shanahan's. "I have other friends in the NFL and I don’t bang the drum like that. I bang the drum because of what I see and study and all those things. Kyle understands the complete game. I would say he understands the complete game as much as any coach in football maybe other than Bill Belichick. I know that’s a bold statement but Kyle is obsessive-compulsive.
"When I was in Tampa with him, I saw how often he was in defensive meetings. I’d be walking by late in the afternoon, one of the few people left in the building in the early evening, players are sort of filtering out and I’d walk by a meeting room and Kyle would be in the back of the room sitting on the floor listening to Monte Kiffin and Rod Marinelli and Mike Tomlin and Gus Bradley. He really took an understanding to know defenses. Really knowing their detailed rules of the defense and I think that’s where Kyle really separates himself from the rest of what coaches know in this coverage when they do this. But Kyle really knows the specific techniques and what they’re forced to do when the formation changes and somebody motions and that’s when he cracks the code more often than not."
This has translated to the players who have been around him over the years.
"Kyle and his coaches have done really well — I think a lot of it goes back to Kyle learning how defenses work, how gaps work, how coverages work, what the details of what the defensive players are thinking and what they’re looking at and what’s hard for them from," said former NFL quarterback Sage Rosenfels. "He got that learning from Monte Kiffin and all those great defensive coaches in Tampa.
"I learned the most football from him that year and the following year than I learned from anybody previously."
People underestimate how smart Shanahan is, likely because of his father. They've watched Sean McVay and Matt LaFleur climb to great heights and think Shanahan is following them. In fact, just the opposite is true. Those coaches learned under Shanahan — they are his proteges. And, as often is the case, the mentor has the full deck of cards, not just a few tricks up his sleeve. That's Shanahan in this game.
"I would say if you asked all of them and they were honest with you and you put all those coaches into a room, they would all agree 100 percent that Kyle is the smartest guy in the room," Rosenfels said. "I believe Sean would say that too."
Said Simms: "They believe in Kyle, they know how smart he is, and of course he’s made them smarter too by the things he’s taught them. They have great loyalty to him. They do things the way he wants them to be done."
Outside of Mahomes making like Kobe Bryant or LeBron James, or Jimmy Garoppolo turning into a bakery, I don't think this game is going to be particularly close. This reminds me of many of the other offense vs. defense Super Bowls, and it usually doesn't go well for the offensive team with the flashy quarterback. Think Dan Marino vs. the 49ers. Tom Brady and Randy Moss against the Giants. Peyton Manning and the Broncos against the Seahawks. The Patriots over the Rams (twice). The Patriots over the Falcons. The Broncos defense vs. Cam Newton. Plus, there's the Andy Reid factor and the fact that his team continues to make mind-numbing mental errors that will get you past the Texans and a Titans team lacking a quarterback, but not a disciplined and talented team like the 49ers.
Then again, I don't think the NFL has ever seen a quarterback as multi-talented as Mahomes in a Super Bowl. And he could change the script by himself.
But if football is still football, the game is still won in the trenches, and if brains, brawn and defense trump speed, and fancy plays, then Shanahan and the 49ers will be the ones being celebrated on Sunday night.
The Pick: 49ers 35, Chiefs (-1.5) 20
MVP: Jimmy Garoppolo.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)"To be the first player in #Patriots history to win Defensive Player of the Year, it's a great honor."
?: #NFLHonors | Tonight at 8PM ET on FOX pic.twitter.com/f9jjK3Rgt5
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) February 2, 2020
A message from the DPOY himself!
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— New England Patriots (@Patriots) February 1, 2020