NBA trade season has been open for business for over a month now, yet there has been quite a bit of calm before the trade deadline storm. Only three trades have been made in the best month and none have been of the impact variety. In fact, two were done primarily for salary cutting reasons (Jeff Teague, Kent Bazemore) for the teams involved rather than trying to upgrade talent.
Things are going to change on that front in the next two weeks however as buyers get more aggressive ahead of the deadline on Feb. 6. There will be more demand than supply this year thanks to the wide-open title race with as many as 10-12 teams thinking internally that they have at least a shot of reaching the NBA Finals in their respective conferences. The sense of urgency will be higher for some teams (Lakers, Clippers, Bucks, Sixers) than others but a lot of the dealing will come down to assets. Do any teams have the kind of capital to match the Celtics' three projected first-round picks for 2020? What kind of offer may the Celtics need to make in the next two weeks to make a meaningful upgrade? Let's take stock of what the C's will have to contend within the East, and check in on what elite West squads have to offer as well.
THE DRAFT CUPBOARD IS FULL
Milwaukee
They are dealing from a great position of strength here. The Celtics own Milwaukee’s first-round pick, which was sent to Phoenix last season in the Eric Bledsoe deal but the Bucks made up for that by getting a first-round pick for Malcolm Brogdon from the Pacers this summer. That is projected to land at No. 20 right now. Combine that with some promising young extra depth at the bottom of the roster that is expendable (Pat Connaughton, Sterling Brown, DJ Wilson) and Milwaukee has the capital to make a meaningful upgrade if they want. Whether or not they decide to do anything after a 36-6 start remains to be seen.
Status of first-rounders: Own Indiana (No. 20) for 2020, does not have 2022 pick
Excess or lost picks? Own Pacers second-round picks in 2021 and 2025. Does not have any second-round picks in 2020
Toronto
Status quo here when it comes to picks. The Raptors were rumored to be potential sellers before the season but that’s clearly not happening given how well this team is playing amid a title defense. They do have their whole first-round pick cabinet intact but there isn’t a lot of movable salary here unless they want to trade a key rotation piece. A mid-level salary upgrade is doable if they package a first-round pick with Stanley Johnson or a talented undrafted rookie like Terence Davis but there isn’t enough to make a big splash with their own draft capital unless a key young player is on the move.
Status of first-rounders: Own all future first-round picks
Excess or lost picks? No excess. Already traded away second-rounders in 2021, 2022 and 2024
STILL PLENTY OF PICKS TO DEAL BUT NOT FOR 2020
Indiana
The Pacers are in decent shape when it comes to draft capital. They sent their first-round for 2020 to the Bucks in exchange for Malcolm Brogdon so they can only send out first-round picks for 2022 or later. They have a few second-round picks coming in or out but on average they will have two picks every season after this upcoming year. There are still options for them to add without using a future first-round pick as well, especially with Victor Oladipo expecting to return later this month. That will create a logjam in their backcourt (Brogdon, Lamb, A Holiday, McConnell, Sumner). There isn’t going to be enough room for everyone to play in that group so a player could be shipped out to upgrade another part of the roster. However, with little time between Oladipo’s return and the trade deadline, Kevin Pritchard could want to play it safe and see how Oladipo looks before doing anything major.
Status of first-rounders: Own all future first-round picks except for 2020
Excess or lost picks: A couple extra in 2022 and 2023
Philadelphia
The Sixers dealt away their own first-round pick at last year’s trade deadline the blockbuster deal for Tobias Harris. They thought they added another one for 2020 once they trade away Markelle Fultz to the Magic last summer in exchange for a top-20 protected Thunder pick. However, after Oklahoma City blew up their core this summer by dealing away Paul George and Russell Westbrook, it looks highly likely that pick will not convey (turning into two second-round picks instead). The Sixers have a ton of excess second-round picks to work with that are leftover from the Sam Hinkie era but the vast majority of those are expected to land in the bottom half of the second round since those picks are from playoff teams. If the Sixers want to make a noteworthy upgrade, they are going to have to trade a useful young player (Zhaire Smith, Furkan Korkmaz, Mattise Thybulle) with team control or a future first-rounder. Smith’s value has plummeted since draft night due to injuries.
Status of first-rounders: Own all future first-round picks except for 2020
Excess or lost picks: Several excess second-round picks
THE CUPBOARD IS BARE (EXCEPT FOR YOUNG TALENT)
Miami
They have been selling off draft assets left and right over the last few years, having already shipped away their 2021 and 2023 first-round picks. Due to the Stepien Rule, the only first-round picks they can deal right now are for 2025 or later, which shouldn’t be appealing to any GMs unless they are very confident they will still have a job in five years. Miami also has only one second-round pick over the next six years, leaving them with essentially no useful trade assets to deal in the present. The good news for them? They have plucked some of the most appealing young talent off the scrap heap in recent years with Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn looking like studs already and first-round pick Tyler Herro helping right away. They will have to deal one of those guys to make a notable upgrade but they have a few to potentially shop with expiring contracts (Johnson, Olynyk) to make the money match.
Status of first-rounders: Can’t trade any of their own until 2025 due to Stepien Rule (do not have 2021, 2023 first rounders)
Excess or lost picks: Only one second-round pick left until 2025
Western Conference contenders draft assets
LA Lakers: First pick available to trade is a second-round pick for 2023 due to Anthony Davis deal and other past deals. Very depleted draft stash.
Denver: Previously traded first-round pick to Oklahoma City for 2020. Can trade any pick for 2022 or later
Houston: Rockets have a first-round pick to deal for the next four seasons but the Thunder have the ability to swap picks for 2021 and 2025. Two first-round picks heading into OKC in middle of the decade from Westbrook deal
Dallas: Traded away 2021 and 2023 first-round picks to Knicks for Porzingis so unable to deal first-round picks before 2025
Utah: Traded away 2020 first-round pick for Mike Conley so can not trade a first-round pick until 2022.
LA Clippers: Traded away 2022, 2024 and 2026 first-round picks to Thunder. They have their own 2020 and 2021 first round picks to deal still.
Top teams with best present draft capital: Milwaukee, LA Clippers, Houston. Toronto
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Other NBA News and Notes
—Zion Williamson has been given a return date of January 22nd in what will be a nationally televised game on ESPN. The Celtics will get a close look at the big man next weekend in New Orleans.
—The NBA has postponed a planned vote on several rule proposal changes this April including a potential postseason play-in tournament as well as an in-season tournament. I’d expect both of those to eventually happen after some more workshopping gets done to keep all parties involved happy.
—One potential trade option around the league is Pistons swingman Luke Kennard. However, he will be out until the All-Star break with bilateral knee tendinitis which should prevent any team from giving up a serious asset for him.
—Kyrie Irving’s follow up comments on Friday to his earlier postgame rant against the Sixers sounded like more of the same from the All-Star. "I reached out to make sure nothing was taken out of context -- making sure that the guys knew exactly what I meant," Irving said on Friday after practice. "And that is the only thing that matters. Everyone can say, 'If I was in this position, I would've said this, I would've done this.' They have no idea because they've never been at this level, so how could you even comment on it?" I'm going to continue to push. I’m going to continue to demand greatness out of myself and demand greatness out of my teammates and we go from there. If it's harsh as a leader or too much for anybody, if you're not in our locker room, stay the f--- out. It's as simple as that." Amid a rough week for the Celtics, Brad Stevens can be thankful that this isn’t his headache to manage anymore.