NFL Notebook: Conference Championship picks, potential selloffs for Patriots?

Getting ready to settle in for a conference championship Sunday that doesn't involve the Patriots for the first time since 2010 (that's truly amazing and a testament to Bill Belichick and the organization)...

How I read each of Sunday's games.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Titans at Chiefs (-7), 3:05 p.m.

• Both games are rematches of regular-season games. Tennessee beat the Chiefs 35-32 in Week 10 at Arrowhead Stadium.


• That game was the first for Patrick Mahomes after missing almost a month with a dislocated kneecap, and his stats were outstanding: 36 of 50 for 446 yards and three touchdowns. But he wasn't a threat to run and this game started a trend we saw for much of the season: Mahomes didn't want to stay in the pocket and within the framework of the offense. He's been better at it in recent weeks. And he rushed for 53 yards last week.


• The Chiefs need that threat because the Titans did a nice job against Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in man coverage than zone. If Tennessee goes man, then Mahomes' run ability will be an asset. You could see the difference last week against the Texans. Houston also played a lot of man the first time around, and did it again in the rematch and Mahomes' athletic ability made the difference.


• The Chiefs had nine penalties for 80 yards and some of them really cost KC. They also had some coverage busts that swung the game.


• It doesn't look like Chiefs standout end Chris Jones is going to be able to go because of injury. That makes defending Derrick Henry that much tougher.


• Titans will need more from their receivers in this game — Anthony Firkser catching a couple key balls is not going to win this one. Jonnu Smith and Kalif Raymond made a few plays against the Ravens, but A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, and Adam Humphries need to be real threats.


• The Chiefs should have a big edge in special teams, even though a blocked field goal clinched it for the Titans in the first matchup. Tennessee punter Brett Kern is great and needs to slow down Mecole Hardman. Harrison Butker has a huge advantage over Greg Joseph.


• I keep coming back to this, which I can't unsee from last January when the Patriots went into Arrowhead and won in overtime. The Patriots played a nearly flawless game for three quarters — a total Titans-like game at 17-7 with a strong run game — and the Chiefs still scored 24 points in the final quarter to take the lead and then force overtime. And several times in the fourth quarter and overtime, Tom Brady had to answer and convert on some incredibly tough third downs to emerge with a tight victory. This Chiefs team, with defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, is much more well-rounded.


• The pick: Chiefs 30, Titans 17. Tannehill will make a couple of splash plays again, but I just can't see him making enough clutch throws to push the Titans over the top.

• San Francisco dominated Green Bay 37-8 in the Week 12 matchup.


• An Aaron could be the defining figure for the Packers, and it's not the one you're thinking of. Running back Aaron Jones has to be a factor in this game to keep the Packers' offense balanced while making the 49ers' defense unbalanced. The Packers aren't talented enough for Rodgers to just drop back 40-plus times and win against this defense.


• In the first matchup, Jones and Jamal Williams rushed 24 times for 83 yards (3.5 average) and Rodgers got sacked five times and averaged 3 yards per attempt. For Rodgers to be effective against the Niners' pass rush and secondary, the running game will need to keep them off balance. The Packers' backs need to be over 4 yards per carry to have a chance.


• The return of Dee Ford last week made a huge difference for the 49ers' defensive line — which had looked vulnerable down the stretch. Getting Ford back made them dominant again, and the return of LB Kwon Alexander and safety Jaquiski Tartt helped things as well.


• Would like to see the Packers use the no-huddle. That will allow Rodgers to get into a rhythm early and, hopefully, tire out the great 49ers' defensive line.


• I've got my popcorn ready for Davante Adams vs. Richard Sherman.


• Will this be the crowning moment for Jimmy Garoppolo? Kyle Shanahan will do a good job of scheming things up for him to lessen the chances of turnovers, but Jimmy likes to force the issue when he's under pressure — and the Packers should generate that. Garoppolo tried to throw three to the Vikings last week.


• Shanahan was the OC for Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine in Cleveland. I think that gives Shanahan a huge advantage. In that kind of setting, Pettine would be sharing his defensive philosophy and keys much more in coaches' meetings than Shanahan would have to in his role.


• I don't see how the Packers are going to be able to slow up the Niners run game, which the whole offense is based around. Green Bay was bad against the run in its three losses and I could see that being the case this time around against Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida, and Tevin Coleman.


• The pick: 49ers 24, Packers 20. Garoppolo has a key turnover that keeps this game closer than it should be, but the Niners are just better.