Is it time for Celtics to worry about the Memphis pick?

The NBA season is nearly at the halfway mark and playoff ‘race’ for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference is a free-for-all. Six teams are within three games in the standings over the San Antonio Spurs for the No. 8 spot, which isn’t exactly impressive when you consider the fact the Spurs have an ugly 14-20 record. There’s a mix of underachieving squads and young upstarts in the mix for the final spot but no team is closer to No. 8 spot at the moment than the 15-22 Memphis Grizzlies.

The last time we checked in on the Celtics’ draft stash, the Grizzlies looked like a team that could go either way in the standings. The young studs on the roster came out strong out of the gate but the team’s point differential was ugly, Ja Morant was sidelined with an injury and they were just as close to the bottom of the lottery as they were to sniffing a postseason spot.

Morant returned to action on Dec. 9 after recovering from weeks of back spasms and the Grizzlies have emerged as one of the best young teams in the league since his return, putting together a 10-6 record over their last 16 games. Their net rating over that stretch (+1.8) ranks 13th in the league. With a top-5 offense and the No. 3 rank in pace, they are running all over teams on good shooting nights, including blowing out the Clippers at the Staples Center on Saturday.

So how exactly are the Grizzlies doing it? Is it sustainable? And what’s the trickle-down impact for the Celtics? Let’s try to piece together another potentially disappointing scenario for the Celtics’ draft stash.

The Grizzlies offense is legitimate

Hitting on draft picks in the lottery is essential for any organization (just ask Danny Ainge about those Brown and Tatum guys). It’s evident that Memphis has done just that with their two recent top-5 picks in Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. Both guys are leading the team with 17 points per game while posting phenomenal 47/40 shooting splits. They are the building blocks for this franchise that suddenly has a pretty bright future with them in place.

The good offense goes beyond that duo though. First-round pick Brandon Clarke has emerged as a steal, averaging 12 points per game on 63 percent shooting. Elsewhere, there is plenty of 3-point shooting across the roster. Seven guys are shooting 37 percent or better from 3-point range and that accuracy combined with a fast pace is letting Memphis post some big numbers under new head coach Taylor Jenkins.

All of this has come against the seventh toughest schedule in the NBA so, despite a bottom-five defense, the Grizzlies’ offense has them looking like a team that is capable of winning 35 games this year.

Would a fire sale matter for Memphis?

While the Grizzlies will likely be trying to convey their draft pick this season (to get rid of the pick obligation) that won’t stop them from selling off some of their assets ahead of the trade deadline for a return. The problem for Boston? Those veterans aren’t even playing very well. Jae Crowder (30 percent from 3) is having one of his worst seasons while Kyle Anderson is playing limited minutes off the bench. Memphis’ best players are core young guys so moving on from some veterans to clear out more playing time may help them in the standings even more. The veterans that are playing well (Jonas Valanciunas) just signed a long-term deal so they won’t be moved unless it is for a hefty asking price, leaving little hope for post-trade deadline major drop-off for the C’s.

Is there any hope for the C’s here to still get an elite pick?

The Western Conference race is very crowded and there is not a lot of motivation to tank by teams at the bottom. Golden State seems destined for the bottom given their injury situation and looming firesale but everyone else should be gunning for the playoffs. New Orleans is on a roll and could be getting Zion Williamson back soon. Phoenix and Sacramento are desperate to make the playoffs and be relevant. Minnesota needs to try to stay competitive for Karl Anthony-Towns. The Blazers aren’t going to give up on a season in Damian Lillard’s prime. None of these teams are very good but they aren’t going to throw in the towel either. Some regression or injuries for Memphis could quickly send them back towards the bottom-six (just 2.5 games ahead of that spot) for the moment.

Could the pick conveying this year be a good thing for Boston anyway?

If it comes in somewhere in the 7-10 range, absolutely. The Grizzlies’ core isn’t going anywhere and they should get better with age. However, the problem for the pick potentially conveying now is that this is trending towards a Kings pick situation from last year where Memphis ultimately lands in the middle of the first round. That would be a big hit to the perceived trade value of the selection for Boston, especially when you compare it to Memphis’ subpar outlook at the start of the year. Holding tight to the Sacramento pick hurt Boston last year and the same could happen again in 2020.

So what should the Celtics do now?

Rooting against Memphis is still going to be the top priority, especially given how tight the standings are. A few teams appear set to have firesales and end up in the bottom of the lottery standings (Golden State, Cleveland, New York, Atlanta) but there is plenty of room for movement among the remaining squads. Injuries or a drop-off in play could bring Memphis back towards the middle of the pack here.

The other consideration here for Boston to some degree has to be whether to cash in on the pick a bit earlier than expected. If the front office believes the pick is going to end up in the teens anyway and they can land an impact rotation player now with some team control for a few years, selling high on the pick is worth some consideration with the C’s already looking like a potential contender in the present. What type of players check off those boxes for the C’s? We will dig into some other options on that front later this week here at BSJ.

For now though, it’s time to sound the alarm. The panic meter is up to a 7 (we just decided a monthly panic meter rating for the Grizzlies pick is a good idea). Bad draft luck could be hitting again for Boston, one of the few things that have gone sour for the franchise this season.