The Patriots' defense is great and the team will go as far as that unit takes them.
This much we know.
This has also become apparent: playcalling that was way too aggressive based on the game situations helped contribute to losses to the Texans and Chiefs, and it almost cost the team again on Sunday against the Bills.
And if that doesn't change, then the defense could also prevent this team from going to a Super Bowl.
Against Houston, it was the zero blitzes that left Jonathan Jones out to dry on the touchdown to Will Fuller.
Against the Chiefs, there were multiple plays, including the 3rd and 19 conversion, and the 2nd and 25 touchdown.
It was a problem again against the Bills. This time, mostly because Josh Allen isn't good enough, the Patriots survived.
The situation:
After the Patriots' failed fourth-down before halftime, they compounded that poor decision and execution by their defensive choices.
2-10-BUF 41 (:28) (Shotgun) J.Allen right guard to NE 43 for 16 yards (C.Winovich; D.McCourty).
The Patriots are in two-man with Jamie Collins spying Allen. There's only 28 seconds left and you'd be fine with a field-goal at worst. By playing man coverage, you're inviting a run by Allen to get them near field-goal range. If you play some sort of zone, you can prevent that.
Allen takes off and the Bills are in business.
1-10-NE 43 (:20) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to C.Beasley pushed ob at NE 34 for 9 yards (J.Jackson).
The Patriots are in man to man against trips — something that would later burn them on the John Brown touchdown (this might have set the stage for that) — and JC Jackson has little chance of getting to Cole Beasley and now the Bills are in field-goal range.
2-1-NE 34 (:16) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep left to D.Knox for 33 yards (P.Chung)
This is where things really come off the rails. The Bills are in field-goal range. Now the decision is, do you want to try for the sack and push them out, or are you trying now to prevent the touchdown?
Bills go with trips against man coverage with one deep safety. Chung is beaten by Dawson Knox on a tremendous throw from Allen.
Sure, you can tip the hat to him, but there's no reason why the Patriots shouldn't be leading, at the minimum, 10-6 at halftime. And here's why I point the finger at the coaching/playcalls: there were no huge coverage busts. The Bills just beat the Patriots and that's because the coaches, led by Steve Belichick making the playcalls, put them in that position.
This is now three real games (Bengals don't count) where this has been a problem. I don't recall a stretch like this for the Patriots coaches. If this doesn't change, it's going to cost them in the playoffs too.
Oh, and by the way, it looked like John Simon was at fault of the Dion Dawkins Big Boy touchdown.
Here are the defensive positional ratings against the Bills:
DEFENSE
[table id=405 /]
Defensive line (3 out of 5)
Kyle Van Noy and Lawrence Guy, as usual, paced this group. .... Van Noy's stop of Allen with 3:32 left in the third quarter just short of the marker was huge. Showed some great awareness as well when he was directing Elandon Roberts on the goal line before Ja'Whaun Bentley batted a pass away. ... Guy got off to a slow start in the first half, but he absolutely dominated the second with five of six plus-plays. ... Simon looked to be at fault on the touchdown to Dawkins. He's the edge guy, and Dawkins was a tight end on the play.
Linebackers (4 out of 5)
Dont'a Hightower has played some very strong games recently, and they'll need that to continue. He occasionally misses a tackle, but no one's perfect. ... The Patriots stacked the box with a 3-4 that featured Patrick Chung as an ILB to dare the Bills to throw. This scares me against better offensive lines (Ravens, Chiefs). Worked here because the Bills' line is average and so is Allen. ... Mature, good game from Jamie Collins. Need more from him. He still has a few plays where he gambles. This was better.
Secondary (2.5 out of 5)
Just a phenomenal tackle by Stephon Gilmore on John Brown's reverse on the first drive. Just 2 yards? That's just outstanding. ... The 3rd and 8 miss by Allen early in the second quarter shows his limitations. Yes, Hightower got pressure and affected the pass, but he had Dawson Knox and Cole Beasley wide open after rub routes and Allen just flat out missed Beasley. There was a lot of that in this game. A good quarterback torches the Patriots for more yards and points. ... At the end of the day, I split the Brown touchdown between Gilmore and McCourty but I mostly blame the playcall that really struggled against the Bills' trips all night. ... Jackson gets overrated by fans and analytics. He makes plays, but he also gives them up and he's been very fortunate the opponents haven't executed better against him. He's good, but he's not a slot corner either. The Patriots need a healthy Jones back at some point. ... Chung is playing on fumes. It's an issue. He has trouble covering the more athletic tight ends now.
THREE UP
Lawrence Guy: Completely dominated the second half as the Bills' line had injury issues.
Kyle Van Noy: He's the straw that stirs the drink in the front seven. He makes so many subtly good plays ... they're going to miss him next year if he's not back.
Dont'a Hightower: Has started to stack some really good games together. He's playing the run well, and getting QB pressure.
TWO DOWN
Patrick Chung: He's having some issues in coverage.
John Simon: The Dawkins TD just can't happen in that situation to this team. They're smarter than that.
