Celtics trends: Kemba's offensive impact, a Kanter surprise and bench limitations

A look at some of the statistical trends across the Celtics' roster over the first 26 games of the year, with a focus on play in the last few weeks:

The Celtics offense looks unstoppable with Kemba right now: The Celtics have got what they paid for (and more) out of Kemba Walker during his first 24 games as a Celtic. He is posting a career-high in 3-point shooting, FT shooting and flirting with career-highs in a number of different other ones. Beyond just the individual numbers, his impact on the Celtics’ offense has been tremendous. Boston is a league-best offense when he is on the floor and turns into the NBA’s worst when he rests (17 points better per 100 possessions).

That type of spread is not a huge surprise with an All-Star level player but it stands out more when you consider the number of scorers he has around him on this team. That sharp difference in Walker’s minutes have become even more dramatic for the Celtics offense in recent weeks as Boston is scoring’s rate is in incredibly 42(!) points better per 100 possessions over the last five games, going from historically good (127 points per 100 possessions) to incredibly bad (85 points per 100 possessions) when he’s resting.

Walker’s individual number during that stretch help explain the reason why (29.2 ppg, 5.6 app, 51 percent shooting from field, 45 percent from 3-point range) but he’s been a bit of a savior for Boston with so many other injuries to key players popping up in the last few weeks. There has been a sharp defensive drop-off with Walker on the floor as well (21.5 points per 100 possessions) but the trade-off has remained in the positive column all year for Brad Stevens.

Walker’s incredible gravity on offense may result in a bit of a shift for rotations before the C’s return to full health. We saw shades of this on Wednesday night when Stevens elected to have Walker lead the bench unit as the only starter on the floor for several minutes. Jayson Tatum has had that role for much of the year while Stevens tries to buy rest for the rest of his starters for a few minutes each half but those Tatum + bench units have struggled a lot on offense in the past two weeks. Walker has the playmaking ability to manufacture offense himself in the pick-and-roll and the attention he garners opens up things for his teammates, something that is needed with offensively limited pieces like Semi Ojeleye, Javonte Green and Brad Wanamaker.

Life gets much easier with rotations once Smart and Hayward get back healthy but look for Walker to continue carrying an impressive load in the meantime.

Good things keep happening when Enes Kanter is on the floor: The Celtics have been very protective of Enes Kanter in the first two months of the season, easing him back from a knee injury with limited minutes. Brad Stevens has also protected Kanter on the defensive end by ensuring he doesn’t have to guard many stretch 5s to help keep the Celtics’ defense from being too exposed by his limitations.

However, injuries to the frontcourt have allowed Kanter to take a heavier load of minutes and the results, particularly on the defensive end, continue to be a pleasant surprise. The Celtics offense has benefitted from his offensive rebounding and efficient scoring all year but surprisingly the Celtics’ defense has been better on average when Kanter is on the floor.

Celtics Defensive rating
Kanter on court: 100.8 points per 100
Kanter off court: 103.9 points per 100

Those defensive numbers have actually been even better in the last five games (101 off/110 on) while the C’s defense has struggled. This is not to say that Kanter has suddenly become a good defender but it’s more of a credit to Stevens in terms of maximizing what Kanter is bringing to the table. The center lacks good instincts but he’s clearly trying and his teammates are doing the best to compensate for him when he’s out there. Whether or not he gets starter level run going forward remains to be seen but his impact has been as positive as anyone could have hoped so far. His net rating (+7.8) is the second-best on the roster so it might be time to try him for bigger minutes with some true centers with limited range (Drummond, Biyombo) coming up on the schedule.

Brad Wanamaker and Semi Ojeleye are falling back to earth a bit: Both guys are still making a positive impact on the defensive end of the floor most nights, but their limitations on the offensive end are becoming more pronounced in recent weeks. Over the last five games, Wanamaker is down to just 5.8 points per game on 36 percent shooting from the field. Meanwhile, Ojeleye has managed just 1.8 points per game despite playing 24 minutes a night. He’s taken only 3s in that stretch, knocking down just 27 percent of them.

A positive for both players is that they aren’t forcing things on the offensive end and trying to do too much. However, having an offensive alternative with more firepower as a shooter/scorer at the guard/wing spot off the bench should be a priority for the front office in the next two months. In the meantime, look for both to be paired with Walker more to help cover up their limited skillsets.

Daniel Theis has awoken from his offensive slumber: It was a slow start out of the gate for the German on the offensive end, but his perimeter shooting has emerged this winter. He knocked down 3s in four straight games earlier this month and is shooting 64 percent from the field and 55 percent from 3-point range in December while averaging 8.0 points per game. This production combined with Kanter’s play has made the center position a surprise net-positive for this team all year long despite its obvious limitations. As trade talks ramp up, I would be surprised to see upgrading this position as a priority for the organization compared to other areas of need on the bench.