When it comes to playing defense, it really doesn't get any worse than the 1-12 Bengals taking their first kickoff, running the ball eight straight times and scoring a touchdown pass to cap a nine-play, 75-yard scoring drive.
It didn't get much better on the second drive as Cincinnati drove to the New England 16 before settling for a field goal.
Andy Dalton. The Bengals.
It sent off a tizzy in Patriots-land. Why can't they stop the run? Is this their Achilles' Heel?
This is not an anomaly. As you can see in the chart below, the first quarter run defense hasn't exactly been the '85 Bears
So after going over the Bengals defensive film, and comparing it to earlier issues, these are the problems with the run defense and we address whether they're correctable:
1. This was the Bengals and the Patriots just went through the motions early: While they haven't exactly been lights-out in the first quarter this season, this is the type of performance we haven't seen since Baltimore and Cleveland. The Ravens run a completely different offense, so that is explainable. The Browns are similar to the Bengals in that no one really takes them seriously. Other than that, when the Patriots have entered a game knowing they needed to stop the run first, they've done a decent job in the first quarter of the game, and they usually get better from there through adjustments.
[table id=404 /]
I had the Patriots for five missed tackles in the first quarter — Jamie Collins, who goes through the motions more than anyone on this defense and always has, had two — and that's more than most games. The Patriots defense didn't come to play against the Bengals. They will against Buffalo and when it counts.
2. The structural issues of the run fits are still there but they've gotten a lot better: Usually, when the Patriots give up a big run on defense, it's because their run fits are not right. Meaning, someone didn't do their job, whether that's holding up against a double team, a linebacker jumping into the run gap, people going up the field, or someone didn't hold the edge or in the proper spot for the run force.
As you'll see in the video below — that sort of talks about all these issues — there were minor issues here and there against the Bengals, but nothing major.
3. Personnel and playing time: This is where the biggest issues are right now and it's debatable whether it will continue.
We all know the Patriots are extremely thin when it comes to true 3-4 defensive linemen. You have Lawrence Guy and Danny Shelton as starters at defensive end and nose tackle, respectively, and they're good. But they have nothing behind them when it comes to stuffing the run.
Deatrich Wise is really a 4-3 end and he's always gotten exposed when he has had to kick inside, where his length works against him as far as leverage. There were occasions when he just got shoved back against the Bengals. Adam Butler is really just a sub-rusher, although he's been better against the run this season. He's just undersized and there's no way he can hold up against double teams. Byron Cowart has a chance but he's been dealing with injuries and is a rookie. Really needs an offseason to put more good weight on to make significant strides there.
That's it. That's all they have. It wasn't an issue in the past when the Patriots were more of a 4-3 team, but their best run defense has always been a 3-4 — they ran it a lot against the Bengals. They just don't have the personnel up front to run it properly. I would not be surprised to see Nick Thurman (6-4, 305) promoted from the practice squad at some point or someone else signed off the street. They need one more stout run defender inside.
There are also personnel issues elsewhere. At times, with the linebackers, it seems like they're going to the participation trophy route — they want to get everyone, including Elandon Roberts and Ja'Whaun Bentley playing time, no matter how it impacts the game. Maybe that's just to preserve people for the postseason. Both those players deserve time if it presents itself — Bentley played well on Sunday — but it makes no sense to force it. It's not fair to the players for them to sit for long stretches and then be expected to play great for a play here or there when run defense is about your eyes and the flow of the game more than anything.
And there were times against the Bengals where the Patriots just flat-out screwed up having the wrong personnel on the field (similar to the Eagles Super Bowl). At one point, the Patriots had their big nickel with Patrick Chung playing ILB against 13 personnel — one back, three tight ends. Of course they and Chung got run over. Maybe that was a gameplan wrinkle by Cincinnati, maybe that was just a coaching screw up. Whatever it was, I sure hope that's not the norm.
I would expect, by the postseason, for the Patriots to debut a real run defense. Their best:
Van Noy, Guy, Shelton, DE/TBA, Simon
Bentley, Hightower
Gilmore, Chung, McCourty, Jackson
Yes, Jamie Collins is not on there. I think he needs to become more of a subpackage, matchup player. Reading and reacting is not his strength, and that's what good run defenders do. Sorry, everyone else sits except for a spell here or there – no more full series for the backups.
If the Patriots don't play better run defense early in the postseason, it could very well do them in. But I don't expect that to happen.
Here are the defensive positional ratings against the Bengals:
DEFENSE
[table id=403 /]
Defensive line (2.5 out of 5)
These guys didn't come to play in this game, or else the Bengals' offensive line is a lot better than they've shown against anyone else. ... Deatrich Wise was the most impactful, but he got blown out of three gaps and had another dumb roughing penalty (you should have seen Bret Bielema's reaction on the sideline).
Linebackers (2 out of 5)
This group really didn't come to play with five missed tackles between them. Had the group for 12 minus plays and seven plus plays. ... Collins was the most impactful, but he also missed two tackles for 39 yards and blew two edges. A typical young Collins game. Boom and bust. Wouldn't be surprised to see him become more of a sub-package guy against passing teams like the Chiefs. ... Bentley played his best game of the season. Would like to see him play more on early downs and give him a chance. Pass coverage is still weak.
Secondary (4 out of 5)
Stephon Gilmore and JC Jackson combined for four interceptions and three more passes defensed. Everyone else was a little sketchy. Even Jackson had his issues aside from his three big plays. ... Underrated topic: Patrick Chung is really struggling down the stretch. Health probably has much to do with it, but it's a concern. ... Terrence Brooks keeps having good coverage but opponents are just making plays on him. Tough luck.
THREE UP
Stephon Gilmore: Basically won the game by himself. Did give up a few plays, but he can smell DPOY.
JC Jackson: His interception came when the game was over and his season has been overrated by analytics and stats, but well done on Sunday.
Ja'Whaun Bentley: Maybe he's coming around. Could be a key contributor to stopping the run in the postseason.
THREE DOWN
Elandon Roberts: Really struggled in his few snaps, which is not really fair to a player. Hard to play at game speed when you only get a shot here and there.
Dont'a Hightower: Was guessing a lot against the run and missed two tackles.
Duron Harmon: Missed a tackle on Mixon's long run and didn't really show up outside a blitz. Good teams are going to pick on him.