The optics following Tuesday’s contest — a 4-3 overtime loss to the cellar-dwelling Kings — weren’t great for the Boston Bruins.
But on a night in which his club still managed to outshoot the competition, 40-27, and generated a 23-11 advantage in 5v5 scoring chances, Bruce Cassidy attempted to draw from the positives in what stood as Boston’s sixth loss in its last seven outings.
“I thought we certainly played well enough to win,” Cassidy said. “Not very happy getting only one point tonight, some nights you’re satisfied. In terms of how we played the game, the process part of it, there was better things than, say, two weeks ago.”
Yes, even with the many miscues (a 1-for-3 showing on the power play, another shorthanded goal relinquished), there was still some room for optimism at the start of a four-game homestand for the Bruins.
Even with zero of its faceoffs coming in the offensive zone, a reworked second line of David Krejci, Charlie Coyle and Jake DeBrusk generated a team-high two high-danger scoring chances during their 6:46 of 5v5 ice time together.
The other reshuffled middle-six group, a third line of Sean Kuraly, Danton Heinen, and Anders Bjork, out-attempted the Kings, 8-2, in just 5:55 of 5v5 TOI.
One could view it all as positive steps forward as Boston looks to find some balance and much-needed offensive contributions away from 5v4 play. But for all of the positive numbers when it comes to shot volume and scoring chances, all of it took a backseat to the most important statistic generated from Tuesday's loss.
The final tallies on the scoreboard.
For as much as Boston peppered Jonathan Quick in net on Tuesday, few of the 65 total shot attempts that the B's generated against L.A.'s netminder led to quality looks — with the Bruins limited to just seven high-danger scoring chances during the first three periods of play, six of which came on 5v5 stretches.
When it comes to Boston's scoring woes, you could credit Quick — who stonewalled Anders Bjork on a breakaway bid in overtime to prevent the Bruins from once again escaping unscathed from another lackluster effort. But, as Patrice Bergeron acknowledged postgame, Quick was far from impervious, given the number of rebounds he coughed up in the slot and other Grade-A areas of the ice.
“I think there’s a balance there where — there were some saves that he’s made that you kind of tip your hat," Bergeron said. "But there’s also some plays where we can be a little sharper and find ways to bear down a little more. That’s on everybody and when those chances are there, really make sure it’s going in and I thought once we got closer to the net, that we were getting the rebounds, we were getting those loose pucks. That’s the kind of hockey you want to play.”
Indeed, it's the hockey that the Bruins want to play, especially at 5v5 play. But, over the course of the entire 2019-20 campaign, generating those chances — and more importantly, finishing them — at a consistent clip has been a recurring struggle with this team.
On paper, there shouldn't be too many worries with this Bruins team, at least upon taking a glance at the club's overall scoring output. Averaging 3.37 goals per game, Boston ranks sixth in the NHL in that category, trailing only the high-powered offenses of the Avalanche, Lightning, Capitals, Predators and Panthers.
But most of those encouraging numbers have been buoyed by both a stout power play (still third in the league despite a 4-for-33 slump) and a buzzsaw of a first line.
When it comes to generating high-danger scoring chances during 5v5 play, Boston is with some lackluster company. So far this season, Boston is generating a 5v5 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes rate of 8.75. That's 28th overall in the league.
The B's struggles to generate these dangerous chances regularly — and throughout their lineup — have bled into the team's expected goals rate at 5v5. Whereas metrics like Corsi (shot attempts) are often used to gain some context from a team's puck-possession metrics, expected goals factor in the quality of the shots a team is attempting (weighting things such as location of the shot, distance from the net, etc.) in order to determine how many goals a team is expected to score during that situation.
Well, the numbers aren't pretty in that area for the Bruins, either. So far this year, Boston's 5v5 expected goals rate per 60 minutes of play is just 1.98 goals. In other words, based on Boston's lack of high-danger looks and poor shot selection, the Bruins are only expected to score a little under two goals in a full 60 minutes of 5v5 action. Not ideal, considering that ranks 29th overall among all NHL teams. The only clubs below Boston are both the Winnipeg Jets and Detroit Red Wings, each just a hair behind the B's with an xGF/60 rate of 1.97.
Pretty concerning stuff — and one that paints a clearer picture as to why Boston has labored so much during this stretch when it comes to landing that needed knockout punch in the offensive zone.
So far this season, the Bruins have managed to pile up points both in the standings and on the scoresheet thanks to their star forwards and a lethal power play, but until Boston is able to locate more established finishers elsewhere on the roster — whether that be in-house or outside the organization — expect these offensive shortages to continue to sprout up.
Some might tab it as poor puck luck. But the fact of the matter is, it's simply the Bruins' poor shot quality crashing back down toward the mean.
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick.