And down the stretch they come.
Sure, we know the Patriots aren't exactly clicking on all cylinders heading into the final three games, but they have about a 75 percent chance of locking up a bye in the AFC (with the Ravens winning on Thursday, their odds of holding onto the No. 1 seed are over 95 percent).
So the Patriots are likely going to be the No. 2 seed, which means they're virtually assured of hosting the No. 3 seed in the divisional round — and barring a huge upset, this will not be a tomato can.
So who's coming to Foxborough?
Here are the current odds for the AFC's No. 3 seed (has to be a division winner, which basically eliminates the Bills and definitely takes care of the Steelers), along with their remaining schedules:
Chiefs (9-4, 48.4%) — vs. Broncos, at Bears, vs. Chargers
Titans (8-5, 20.1%) — vs. Texans, vs. Saints, at Texans
Texans (8-5, 9.1%) — at Titans, at Buccaneers, vs. Titans
Bills (9-4, 2.1%) — at Pittsburgh, at Patriots, vs. Jets
Colts (6-7, 0.1%) — at Saints, vs. Panthers, at Jaguars
The odds are strong that it's going to be the Chiefs as the third seed. The Patriots' only hope for a different team would be if the AFC South winner won out, and the Chiefs dropped a game, like at Chicago.
That would mean, if the results held, the Texans/Titans would come to Foxborough and the Chiefs would go to Baltimore.
It would increase the chances of an upset — Buffalo or Pittsburgh could definitely take down Houston/Tennessee on the road — and that would send the Chiefs to Gillette again. The Ravens will always draw the lowest remaining seed.
So if it's the Chiefs...
Three things to feel good about
1. This is not MVP Patrick Mahomes: Since hurting his knee in Week 7, Mahomes has not been the same quarterback — if you take out his ridiculous game against the Titans in his return that we can't quite explain. It seems like an anomaly.
In the first seven weeks of the season, Mahomes looked to be headed toward back-to-back MVP trophies:
In the past three weeks, Mahomes has decidedly not been the same playmaker. And while the Patriots were one opponent, the Chargers and the Raiders were the others.
These stats are backed up by very shaky film against the Patriots. He doesn't want to be hit and won't stand in the pocket to deliver the ball. He's ripe for the taking.
2. Steve Spagnuolo showed his hand: Yes, sure, the Chiefs' defensive coordinator got one over on the Patriots and Josh McDaniels in the first matchup. He had a really good and varied plan that led to ungodly pressure against Tom Brady. The Patriots have already made corrections and will have a bye week to fine-tune their protections and come up with answers. That's a big advantage.
3. The game will be a month from now: That means Isaiah Wynn, N'Keal Harry, Mohamed Sanu, Matt LaCosse and Jakobi Meyers will have much more game and practice experience under the belts. This should not be understated considering how much time all of those players (save Meyers) have missed this season. And Ted Karras will be back, which will help immensely compared to James Ferentz. Plus, the Patriots played largely a terrible game overall and still almost went to overtime.
Bonus: No Jerome Boger. We hope.
Three things to worry about
1. The Chiefs' offense could awake from their slumber: While the Patriots weren't great the first time around, the Chiefs' offense was held to two field goals in the final two-and-a-half quarters. They were no oil painting either. The Patriots' worst nightmare is Mahomes getting healthier and the Chiefs finding their offensive rhythm. The Patriots can't win a shootout like they did twice last year.
2. Chiefs were missing some key parts: The Chiefs basically got nothing out of their running game with Damien Williams out with an injury, and the defense was without another versatile piece in the secondary, Morris Claiborne. It should also be noted that speedster rookie Mecole Hardman, who scored a touchdown, played just 14 snaps as he continues to learn the playbook. A month will do him some good as well.
3. Not so tricky: The Patriots were able to use two big trick plays, a jet sweep and a blocked punt to score the bulk of their ... whole 16 points — yeah, that's about as bulky as Chris Gasper. Have to think Spagnuolo will be looking for those the next time around, so the element of surprise is gone.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
While we're at it, here are my playoff picks after the final three weeks, thanks to ESPN's playoff machine:
There is obviously a huge home-at-home between the Texans and Titans in Weeks 15 and 17. Tennessee almost needs a sweep to make the postseason because it has the Saints in between, while Houston is at the Bucs (no sure thing with Bill O'Brien's troops).
There is a momentous swing game coming in the NFC in Week 17 when the Seahawks visit the 49ers. If both teams win their next two games (Niners have toughest game vs. Rams), then the finale means the difference between a bye and going on the road as the fifth seed in the first round. That's very rare. A team that is 13-3 is going to have to play at the NFC East champion and the Eagles have to be the favorite over the imploding Cowboys.
LAST CALL AT OAKLAND-ALAMEDA
The era of big, multi-use stadiums with dirt infields — along with the Raiders' steeped history in Oakland (Sugar Bear Hamilton, anyone?) — will come to a close today as the Raiders play their final game in Oakland before making the move to Las Vegas in the offseason.
Did a big piece on it for the Review-Journal, and I got some alone time with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady as part of it. Here are their complete comments:
Bill Belichick
"We lost to them out there to Gruden I think in '02, beat them out there in '08 ... (Me: I was at the '11 game when Rob Gronkowski blocked his butt off) ... Yup, that's right. Then the LA games were the LA games. The hottest game I ever coached in was when I was with Cleveland when we beat them out there on the last play of the game on a toss-crack. Played like 90-something plays on defense and it was hot as shit. But that was the (LA) Coliseum. The environment was way different. The LA Coliseum you came out and you walked down that long tunnel. And the Raiders would always have their cheerleaders lining the tunnels so as you walked down the tunnel you're walking past... it was brutal. The field was a long ways.
"In Oakland, you'd have to go through the stands and you'd come out at midfield right in the middle of things. In those baseball stadiums, those scoreboards were in odd locations. Now, you can look in the end zone and there's the 40-second clock, there's the scoreboard. You can get all the information you need pretty quickly. But in those stadiums, you're not familiar with it and you're looking all over for the scoreboard. It's just not as readily apparent to you ...
"It was just intense. Those fans, you have to go through them the whole last mile into the stadium and they're m-fing you the whole way. Then you get in the stadium, and it just gets worse — which is fine, it's just the environment. It's not like Green Bay where you drive and they're clapping for you as the bus goes into Lambeau. It's like night and day. The Jets fans will m-f you too, but you're getting off the Turnpike and it's just a parking lot. In Oakland, they're there the whole way. The press box was shitty. The locker room was shitty. Like all the baseball stadiums were. It was definitely unique. Yeah, it’s definitely the end of an era."
(We also chatted about Top 100 and Greg Schiano a bit ... good talk).
Tom Brady
"I'd go there for A's games but I never went to Raiders games because I was a Niners fan. But we went there in 2002, and we beat them the year before (in the Tuck Rule AFC Championship Game), and I think it was (Sunday) Night Football and we got our butts kicked (Raiders led 24-6, won 27-20). They had a good team.
"I just remember it being a dark stadium. It felt like the lights were half on. It was a great environment. The Black Hole was real, the fans were fired up. I remember being in that locker room, just an old locker room and the stadium was kind of beaten down. I remember looking at the program and you'd look and say, 'Man, that guy played for the Raiders? That guy played for the Raiders? That guy too?' It just has an incredible history. Yeah, I'm sure those fans are going to miss them.
"It's changed a lot. Things are a lot more commercial now and upgraded. That's one of the last multi-use stadiums. Now they're huge Taj Mahals. That was a great stadium to play in. Always had great weather when we played there, and I always loved being in the Bay Area. It was pretty sweet."
GAME PICK
Line: Patriots by 10. O/U: 41.5. Season: 9-4, 7-6 ATS.
There's no question the Bengals can still play solid defense, especially with Geno Atkins around to go up against the Patriots' centers and a slumping Shaq Mason. Atkins can wreck a game by himself. And Carlos Dunlap is still very good and will be a problem for Marcus Cannon. Plus, if Darqueze Dennard can play, he's an excellent slot corner. Outside of that, the Bengals are middling on defense so the Patriots should be able to do something. We think.
On offense, the Bengals' terrible o-line means Joe Mixon has little to work with. Hoping we get a Tyler Boyd and Jonathan Jones matchup in the slot. Two good players.