As we touched on yesterday, the biggest problem(s) with the Patriots offense this season is that the offensive line has been terrible — pass and run blocking — for the balance of the season, and there aren't enough players that can beat man coverage in the pass game.
The Patriots can deal with one of those being an issue, but it's impossible for them to navigate both.
It bottomed out against the Chiefs when Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead combined to rush 12 times for 23 yards (1.9 per carry), and the offensive line allowed 47.7 percent pressure on Tom Brady, including a season-high 13 hits.
Brady could deal with no running game and pressure (although anything over 40 percent is really pushing it for a pocket passer, especially one that's 42 years old) if he had a plethora of weapons. Obviously, he does not. So the offense largely failed again.
Last season, the Patriots didn't have the greatest of targets — a diminished Rob Gronkowski was at least around to scare defenses — but they had a terrific and intact offensive line that allowed the run game to be productive, and to give Brady enough time to find targets when needed. That unit was functional enough to win a Super Bowl.
This group, right now, is basically a grenade offense. They can't string together more than three or four plays without an explosion going off in the form of poor run or pass blocking, bad routes, dropped balls, errant passes, penalties, etc. And they're not talented enough to overcome those critical errors (unlike, say, the Chiefs last week overcoming 3rd and 19, 2nd and 25, etc.).
The question is, can this group of Patriots get there?
The feeling here is that it can. Here's why:
Before we get there, one key aspect of this game we didn't want to blow by: the Chiefs blitzed on 30 percent of Brady's dropbacks, which is the second-highest to Cleveland this season (31.7 percent). Both of those games were among the worst for the Patriots offense, so the concern is there that more teams will pick up on this.
[table id=399 /]
Basically, Steve Spagnuolo, who also used some zone exchanges for additional pressure concepts, either rushed five because he knew the Patriots couldn't block one on one, or he fell off and doubled Julian Edelman and/or James White. Right now, that's the way to halt the Patriots if you have a capable secondary. As opposed to last season, the Chiefs now do. So do the Ravens and Texans.
Back to the path forward for the Patriots, because we can only harp on the blatant deficiencies for too long. And the thing to keep in mind is that with this Patriots defense, and they have to be better against Baltimore if there is another meeting because New England has faced Lamar Jackson already, is that as bad as the offense has been, they've been in every single one of those three losses.
All the offense has to do is be just a little bit better and while they won't be as good as last season, they can be effective enough with the defense being improved to win another Super Bowl. But they need things to happen by the time the divisional round starts on Jan. 12th. That's a month from now and will include a bye week with much-needed practices.
1. The run game has to become more productive: While Ted Karras is never going to be David Andrews in terms of execution and getting to the second level, Karras is way better than James Ferentz. The line should get better as Isaiah Wynn gains more experience. He's only five games into his career and he has much to learn. The next three weeks are critical for that. Joe Thuney has been outstanding, but the Patriots need much more from Marcus Cannon and Shaq Mason. Mason could be the key. If the Patriots can get him back to a Pro Bowl level by Jan. 12 (and we still maintain he's hurt), then they have a chance to be a 100-yard running team again. Matt LaCosse also needs to play more and improve. They have to be a 100-yard team through traditional runs, and maybe another 30 on deceptive runs. This offense needs every yard it can scrap together.
2. N'Keal Harry becomes a weapon: This wasn't a necessity before the season, but it is now. Another player, like Wynn, who is very inexperienced and should get better with every rep he takes in practice and games. There's no reason why he can't be Josh Gordon from last season catching slants, bubbles and some back-shoulder throws. He's a big, strong athlete and Josh McDaniels and receivers coach Joe Judge have to find a way to get him going as the X. That would allow Phillip Dorsett to make plays in No. 3/4 role, where he can win some matchups.
3. Mohamed Sanu repeats his Baltimore performance: Against the Ravens, Sanu was able to play 67 snaps and produce 10 catches for 81 yards and one touchdown. It wasn't anything spectacular, but due to injury and a lack of practice time to learn the playbook, it's the best he's done to this point. The Patriots badly need that. The more Sanu can practice, the more he can factor into the gameplan and be an asset. If Sanu was a full go, then you're talking about a trio of receivers on the final fourth down against the Chiefs of Harry, Sanu and Edelman, and Sanu is running Meyers' in-cut for a game-tying touchdown. Brady will actually throw to him there.
If you piece all that together, you're talking about 130 yards rushing, 100 receiving from Edelman, 80 from Sanu plus the normal 75 from White. That's 385 yards just from those players. Scrap together another 65 yards from LaCosse, Burkhead, Dorsett and Meyers, and now you're talking about an offense that is averaging 450 yards per game.
In the past seven games, the Patriots have averaged just 327 per game — including most of the 448 against the Texans in garbage time.
That's how the Patriots can become a viable, winning offense again — if they can keep the grenades from going off.
Here are the positional ratings against the Chiefs:
OFFENSE
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Quarterback (2.5 out of 5)
It's a problem when three of Brady's best throws are dropped by receivers, and the pressure he faced was just not acceptable. But there were still plays for a great Brady to make — the two fourth-down throws could have been placed better, same with the drop by Meyers in the end zone — and he wasn't that on Sunday.
Running backs (3.5 out of 5)
James White and Brandon Bolden got all of this grade because they were great in their spot duty, but Sony Michel was terrible outside of a good blitz pickup. This was the first time — and I'm no Michel fan — in his career where I thought he left yards on the field because he was tentative and not physical enough. Michel needs to go make plays. Turn him loose. He has to down the stretch. Ivan Fears needs to get into Michel's head.
Receivers (2.5 out of 5)
Edelman, Sanu, Dorsett and Harry were all net positives, but Watson, LaCosse and Meyers just didn't get the job done well enough. Will be a challenge to pull this group forward for the rest of the season but it needs to happen. ... Edelman was battling a leg injury in the fourth quarter Sunday but it's not his foot and not believed to be a huge deal.
Offensive line (1 out of 5)
Just an absolute trainwreck, as you can see in the chart above. Ferentz and Wynn both were badly beaten throughout the game — Ferentz was backed up 2 yards into the backfield on just about every run. Cannon and Mason got off to poor starts in the first half but rebounded. Thuney was spectacular as usual. In order of effectiveness: Thuney, Mason, Cannon, Ferentz, Wynn. The announcers need to stop talking about Wynn until he actually plays well. He has not since his return.
DEFENSE
[table id=401 /]
Defensive line (3.5 out of 5)
Not sure if the offensive lines are just better but this group hasn't been nearly as productive as they were against the easier slates of games, and they're making more miscues as the schedule goes on. ... Both John Simon and Jamie Collins could have been a lot better on the Travis Kelce touchdown. ... Kyle Van Noy, the most impactful player again, missed two tackles, including one where he allowed the ball to go from the 15 to the 5 when he tried to punch the ball out and not tackle the runner. ... Very strong games from Danny Shelton and Simon. ... Deatrich Wise (three pressures) made his presence known, but did have another penalty. ... Chase Winovich had a good bounce-back game but he still seems behind the curve.
Linebackers (4 out of 5)
Dont'a Hightower (five pressures) had his most impactful game in weeks. ... Jamie Collins, who was decent, seems to be fading. Also had a missed tackle. ... Ja'Whaun Bentley played six snaps, Elandon Roberts had one total — on offense.
Secondary (3 out of 5)
Everyone but JC Jackson (interception) had some sort of big miscue, from Jonathan Jones and Duron Harmon sharing the 48-yard touchdown (the playcall was mostly at fault) and several missed tackles. Also, I fault the playcall on the third and 19 conversion.
