Most years, the Red Sox would be going to the Winter Meetings, armed with a shopping list of specific needs.
That list might include, say, a No. 5 starter, a backup catcher, a second baseman, a reliever (or two) and perhaps a fourth outfielder — all current positions that need addressing.
But such lists are so yesterday.
Instead, when the Red Sox arrive in San Diego, they'll do so with a far different mindset. No longer is it a matter of checking off items as they go.
Rather, the offseason business model is ever-fluid and constantly evolving.
The subtext here, of course, is the team's stated desire to get under the $208 million CBT threshold, which will require the Sox to gut nearly $30 million in salary to achieve. Much of what they do — and importantly, don't do — will be driven by that goal.
Should the Sox, say,
trade away Mookie Betts, who carries an expected salary of $27.7 million through salary arbitration, that would represent almost all of the necessary budget-slashing they would need while also creating a sizeable opening in the middle (or more accurately, the top) of the lineup.
If Betts stays, the Sox will need to find savings elsewhere. Perhaps moving both David Price (who would require the Sox to take back at least a portion of his remaining $96 million to facilitate any sort of trade) and Jackie Bradley Jr. would accomplish the cost-cutting.
But swapping Price and Bradley would correspondingly create additional holes in the middle of the outfield and top end of the rotation, and adjust what the Sox are seeking to round out the roster.
In short, it's hard for the Red Sox to know what the Red Sox need to add before they know exactly what they'll be subtracting.
See where this is going?
Rather than an itemized wish list, the Red Sox are taking a more macro view.
"To zoom out, we know our objective is to prioritize sustainability, prioritize competitiveness,'' said Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom last month, "not just the coming year, but also in the long-term. To think of things through that lens rather than trying to arrange an order of needs is how we're approaching it and it should open up more options for us.''
By all accounts, the Red Sox appear to have moved on from the idea of dealing Betts, recognizing that the return for a player with just one year of control remaining — to say nothing of a 2020 price tag of almost $28 million — wouldn't be worth the effort. Moreover, the Sox could always make Betts available at the July 31 deadline and not see much of a drop-off in what they could get for him.
For now, most of the effort seems to center on unloading some of the veteran (and costly) starting pitching. Price and Nathan Eovaldi are the logical candidates, with Chris Sale, about to commence a five-year, $145 million deal and coming off an elbow injury, is thought to be virtually untradeable.
Timing could work against the Sox here. While various clubs are in the market for high-end, free-agent starters like Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, those sweepstakes are unlikely to conclude until after the first of the year. But the Red Sox' real competition isn't the very top end of the pitching market, but rather, the next level down, featuring the likes of Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu.
If one or the other is signed before then, it might improve the Red Sox' leverage — teams that miss out on solid No. 2 starters like Bumgarner or Ryu might be motivated to turn their attention to someone like Price.
It's likely, however, that the market could take a while, further delaying a willingness to give up prospects in a deal since most teams, presumably, would rather just write a check for a free agent.
Given the limited budget parameters under which the Red Sox are operating, much of the roster-building might be done later in the winter, when the market will likely still be flooded with low-cost options.
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