One way or another, the Red Sox face some painful choices in their effort to get under the first luxury tax threshold of $208 million for the 2020 season.
There are a number of paths the team could take to achieve their cuts. Trading away Mookie Betts would save about $28 million alone. Moving J.D. Martinez would represent a savings of nearly $24 million.
But while those are the most obvious and most speculated possibilities, there are other options in play for the Red Sox. These would involve dealing one of their veteran starters. Together, Chris Sale, David Price and Nathan Eovaldi stand to earn $79 million, or, more than a third of the club's projected payroll for next season.
Moving one of the starters would enable the Sox to maintain a top lineup, one capable of leading the game in runs scored. And it would potentially allow for the Sox to continue to try to work out a contract extension for Betts, who is under control for just one more season.
There are drawbacks, of course, to dealing a starting pitcher. First, there's the obvious hole that would be created in the rotation at a time when the organization lacks any obvious replacements.
Secondly, each of the three veteran starters is coming off a sub-par 2019 season, meaning the Sox would be dealing at a disadvantage. Accordingly, they would need to subsidize the salary of the pitcher involved -- either by including an attractive prospect to offset the cost of taking on such an outsized contract, or by assuming some of the salary themselves. Neither option is particularly attractive: under the former, the Sox would be depleting an already thin inventory of prospects; under the latter, the potential lessening of further salary burdens would be compromised by assuming some of the remaining financial obligations.
But as stipulated earlier, there are no perfect solutions. One way or another, cutting salary is going to leave a mark.
Let's look at the three starters and examine their respective pros and cons.
DAVID PRICE
Remaining money: $32 million in each of the next three seasons.
Pros: Despite missing time with a few stints on the IL, Price's recent injury history is relatively minor. He missed most of the last two months because of a cyst on his left wrist. He underwent a minor surgical procedure in the final week of the season and is expected to have a normal offseason and be ready for spring training. ... Although he's the oldest pitcher of this trio, he's been relatively durable in his career, having pitched 170 or more innings in seven of his last nine seasons. ... Price's repertoire has evolved in recent years and while he no longer possesses an overpowering fastball, he's demonstrated the ability to be effective using his changeup and cutter. Even at 34, he could certainly remain effective over the next three seasons. ... Though dogged for years as someone who couldn't perform in big games, his stellar 2018 season erased that narrative.
Cons: As noted, Price is 34, making him the oldest starter the Sox could market. ... He's also the most expensive in terms of AAV ($32 million annually), as part of a contract that, at the time, was the largest awarded to a starting pitcher. ... For the last few seasons, Price had periodically dealt with a forearm issue that some fear could eventually result in more serious elbow troubles and potentially, lead to the need for Tommy John surgery which could wipe out at least one full season of the remaining three on his long-term deal.
The skinny: For a number of reasons, Price would appear to make the most sense for the Sox to move, not the least of which is because he sits in the middle of the three in terms of future obligations, while still pitching at a relatively high level -- at least when healthy. It's also worth noting that after this season, Price will gain 10-5 rights -- signifying 10 years in the big leagues, including the last five with the same team -- which will allow him to refuse any deal and make trading him that much more problematic.
Scout's take: "To me, he makes the most sense (to move). If they eat some of the remaining money, I think there would be considerable interest in him.''
CHRIS SALE
Remaining money: $145 million over five years, with a vesting option for a sixth season.
Pros: Sale has been one of the most dominant starters in the game for much of his career, earning Top 5 Cy Young Award finishes in six of the last seven seasons. ... Intensely competitive with a plus-plus fastball and slider. ... Even in an off-year, he still managed to average 13.3 strikeouts per nine innings and his career strikeout-to-walk ratio of 5.37 to 1 is the best of all-time.
Cons: In a word, contract. Sale has yet to begin a five-year, $145-million contract extension he agreed to last March. ... The 2019 season represented his worst year with a career-worst ERA of 4.40. ... He pitched better than his won-loss record suggests, but still, six wins in 25 starts is sobering. ... Worse, Sale missed the final six weeks of the season with an elbow injury that remains somewhat mysterious, with the pitcher himself limiting the amount of information the team can disclose. ... The team maintains that he'll be cleared to resume throwing soon and should have a normal spring training, but to say that concerns still linger would be a massive understatement.
The skinny: We've learned in recent years that there may be no such thing as an untradeable contract -- if Robinson Cano can be moved, so can anyone else. But Sale's five-year deal coupled with the uncertainty that surrounds his elbow (and shoulder from the previous season) help represent the exception to the rule.
Scout's take: "The Red Sox would presumably have to assume so much of the remaining money that, in the end, it wouldn't be worth it to them. They're better off holding onto him and hoping he's healthy.''
NATHAN EOVALDI
Remaining money: $17 million in each of the next three years.
Pros: A wide assortment of quality pitches in his repertoire continues to make Eovaldi tantalizing. ... His fastball can reach triple digits on radar guns and he has another four or five pitches that are of high quality. ... His compete level and toughness will never again be questioned after his near-mythical relief appearance in Game 3 of the 2018 World Series. ... He has already undergone two Tommy John surgeries -- one in high school, another a few years ago -- which would suggest that, when it comes to injuries, the worst is already behind him. ... Eovaldi turns 30 in February, making him the youngest of the three pitchers being discussed.
Cons: Durability remains the No. 1 problem. ... Eovaldi has pitched parts of nine seasons in the big leagues and has pitched more than 150 innings just twice and more than 160 innings only once. ... His 5.99 ERA last year — a season in which he missed half the year with yet another elbow injury -- is hardly comforting. ... And despite his elite velocity readings, Eovaldi doesn't get nearly the amount of swing-and-misses you would expect. ... Moreover, his career WHIP of 1.365 is further evidence that he tends to allow a lot of traffic.
The skinny: Getting a team to take a flier on Eovaldi would mean finding a team willing to take the same leap of faith the Sox did last offseason when they aggressively outbid other clubs to retain him. Everyone loves the repertoire and the velocity, and there may be a team that believes they can help him finally put it all together. But how much he can be trusted physically is one question. Another: how many pitchers get better -- and healthier -- after turning 30?
Scout's take: "If someone wants to take a gamble on his stuff, the money isn't horrible given the cost of starting pitching on the open market.''
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