Investigating 7 early-season Celtics trends that are worth watching

The Celtics are nearly 20 percent through the NBA season, which means we are beginning to get enough of a sample size to figure out what’s real and what's not from a positive and negative standpoint within this group. To get a better sense of where this team is at after a surprising 11-3 start, let’s look at some individual numbers that stand out from the pack on both sides of the coin to better gauge where this team is at and how sustainable this stellar start will be over the long haul.

50.7 percent: Jayson Tatum’s shooting percentage inside 3 feet.

The third-year forward has started to turn the corner in the past two games with season-best efforts against the Suns and Clippers but his shooting percentage from close range is still standing out like a sore thumb on this roster. He easily ranks last on the team from short distance among rotation players and it’s a whopping 15 percentage points below his career average at the rim. There’s no question the short-range shooting has had a significant drag on his efficiency as he’s shooting a career-low 41.2 percent from the field but his track record indicates there is nowhere but up to go from here. The encouraging part for the Celtics coaching staff is that the C’s have managed to overcome these horrific numbers to be a top-6 offense over the first 14 games. Tatum clearly needs to get better in the paint, especially given his spike in usage, (1st on team) but he is taking more of the right kind of shots all year thus far (close range and 3-pointers). The 3s are falling (39 percent) so once the close ones do too, he will be on his way to becoming an All-Star.
Long-term forecast: It should only go up

7.9 rebounds per 36 minutes for Jaylen Brown

This was an area that started to see some promise beginning back during the World Cup when Brown spent many minutes as a stretch four for that undersized roster. He was forced to battle international bigs in the post and on the glass all month long in the tournament and performed quite admirably at it. That effort has translated well into an undersized Celtics starting five as Brown is posting a career-best 7.9 rebounds per 36 minutes, which is a full two rebounds above his previous best per 36. Brown, Tatum, and Hayward (when healthy) have all done a very solid job on the defensive glass all year but Brown’s numbers have shown the biggest growth year-over-year out of this group. That gang rebounding mentality has enabled the C’s to remain a respectable 21st in defensive rebounding rate despite starting no one over 6-foot-9 in their usual starting five. Keeping the need for Enes Kanter out of the starting five for his rebounding has helped this team’s defense a lot and Brown has been a big part of that equation. With Hayward out for another few weeks, the C’s will need Brown to be better than ever in this department to get by.
Long-term forecast: No reason it’s not sustainable 

6.0 assist to turnover ratio for Marcus Smart

Through 17 games, Smart leads the NBA in this category which is an incredibly dramatic jump from his ratio last season (2.6). Smart is only averaging 5.1 assists per game so the biggest reason for this improvement has come due to his reduced turnovers, dropping from 1.5 per game last year to an anemic 0.9. A higher turnover rate has always been a concern during Smart’s career but he’s managed it incredibly well this year, making him a terrific creator for the C’s offense whenever he is setting up his teammates. It’s probably a bit unrealistic to expect this strong start to sustain but Smart joins a long list of players (Walker, Brown, Tatum) with a low turnover rate on this team and it has helped put them at the top of the NBA leaderboard averaging the fewest turnovers per game.
Long-term forecast: Likely to trend down, but still could show major growth from last year

6.7 percent: 3-point shooting percentage for Celtic ‘centers’

Last season, a lot of the Celtics’ offense was predicated on using stretch bigs to extend opposing defenses on the perimeter. We knew we were in for a different look this year after the departures of Al Horford and Aron Baynes, but I don’t think anyone was expecting just two 3-point makes combined from Daniel Theis (2-of-12), Grant Williams (0-of-17) and Enes Kanter (0-of-1) to start the year over 14 games. Theis is the name to watch on this list as he’s a career 33 percent shooter from 3-point range. He’s only taking one per game so far but he should come back towards the mean. The jury’s out on whether Williams will become an acceptable 3-point shooter but the C’s are willing to let him find out for now. Meanwhile, Kanter has made his living inside the arc after chatter of him taking more 3s this summer has faded. So far, this has not hurt the C’s offense significantly (top-6 overall) but a stretch big may end up being on Danny Ainge’s Christmas list next month if these numbers don’t show some improvement. For now, the C’s are happy to take strong D and screen setting from their bigs instead of the 3s.
Long-term forecast: Can only go up from here, but still a long-term concern

226: Most minutes played off the bench this season by Brad Wanamaker

The 30-year-old has taken over the sixth man role since Marcus Smart has headed to the starting five and has provided a stabilizing influence on the second unit in the process. After a rough start to the year offensively, Wanamaker has shined as his minutes' load increases, shooting 54 percent from the field and 42 percent from 3-point range in November. He’s averaging an efficient 8.7 points and 3.6 assists per game helping pull enough offense out of a second unit to take some of the onus off Boston’s top-heavy starting five. These big minutes in November (20.1 per game) won’t last forever once Hayward returns but it won’t be surprising to see him counted on as the second-best reserve behind Smart all year long. He’s beaten out Carsen Edwards for that role and showed the world that he deserved more of a chance last season after all, something we advocated for plenty at BSJ.
Long-term forecast: Second off the bench in minutes behind Smart

22.3 percent turnover rate for Rob Williams: The Celtics are letting him get more involved in the offense this year with his passing but that has not necessarily been a great thing for Boston despite a nice uptick in his assist rate. Williams has been prone to miscues as evidenced by his team-worst 22.3 percent turnover rate, nearly double his rate of turnovers from last season. Turning the ball over on one out of every five possessions is not acceptable, particularly when there are more proven performers (Kanter) waiting for chances down the bench. Williams has shown some potential in spurts all year (see: San Antonio game) but consistency on both ends remains a concern. He needs to show more discipline on offense and defense if he wants to keep getting regular minutes, especially if his development is going to take a backseat to wins at some point.
Long-term forecast: A cause for reduced playing time if it doesn’t go down

52.6 percent: Kemba Walker’s 3-point rate

The All-Star has been taking more and more 3s during every year of his career but now that he’s putting up over half his attempts from downtown, he is putting himself among some top company (Harden, Lillard, etc.) when it comes to shot volume and accuracy from 3-point range. He’s just a few tenths of a percentage point away from his career-high from downtown (39.9 percent) despite attempting nearly 10s 3s a game, essentially replacing all of Kyrie Irving’s offensive production thus far. With more of his long 2s turning into 3s, that’s good calculus for the C’s offense and likely a byproduct of playing with better teammates that give him more room to operate on the perimeter.
Long-term forecast: Should remain steady