You can be honest — I won’t hold it against you.
If we were to turn back the clock to July 1, 2018 — the day a young and promising Toronto club added one of the top free agents in recent memory in John Tavares — and you had to bet on either the Bruins or Leafs taking home a Stanley Cup in the following five years, who would you take?
All bias aside, you have to admit that Toronto put forth an awfully compelling argument.
Even with plenty of warts on the blue line, a young but uber-talented Maple Leafs roster managed to bring the Bruins to a decisive Game 7 in the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2018.
Mitch Marner, who turned 21 midway through that series, closed out the seven-game set with two goals and nine total points. Auston Matthews, set to enter his third full season in the NHL, tallied 74 goals in his first 144 games up in the NHL ranks.
Add a franchise center in Tavares to the mix alongside an loaded young core also featuring the likes of Morgan Rielly, William Nylander and more, a Stanley Cup-winning coach in Mike Babcock and a forward-thinking front office led by Kyle Dubas and Brendan Shanahan — and the Leafs seemed poised to sit atop the NHL once again for the foreseeable future, with this group set to bring Lord Stanley’s Cup back to Toronto for the first time since 1967.
Well, about that. ….
A year-plus removed from that July afternoon, and not much has changed when it comes to the hierarchy in the Atlantic Division. And from the Bruins’ perspective, what seemed like a roster on its last legs in terms of viable Cup contention after getting manhandled by the Lightning in 2018 doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon.
Even after the Bruins fell in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final the following spring, Boston’s window as a legitimate Cup contender does seem destined to last for at least another 2-3 years. Even amidst a slew of injuries, the Bruins are still the top team in the division off of a 12-3-5 record, with Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak both on pace to easily eclipse the 100-point mark.
And with the trio of Marchand, Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron all under contract for a combined cap hit of $19.6 million through at least the 2021-22 season, Boston should be able to avoid a significant cap crunch going forward.
With over $3 million in dead money coming off the books this offseason, the Bruins are set to going into the summer with over $26 million in available space — a number that could be even higher if Boston opts to buyout or trade David Backes’ contract.
Boston might be primed to content for at least the next few year, but what of a Maple Leafs team that now rolls out a roster with Tavares, Matthews (still just 22 years old), Marner (22), Nylander (23), Rielly (25) and a revamped blue line with the likes of Jake Mizzin and Tyson Barrie?
Well, it’s been nothing short of a disaster in what was expected to be the year that Toronto was supposed to put it all together.
After dropping a 4-2 loss to Boston in their own barn Friday and getting blown out by the Penguins, 6-1, the following night, the Maple Leafs have posted just two wins in regulation over their last 15 games.
Now just 9-9-4 on the year, Toronto is actually closer in the standings (21 GP - 22 points) to the cellar-dwelling Senators (20 GP - 17 points) than they are to the Bruins (20 GP - 29 points), and are spiraling out of control on an 82-point pace this season.
To the shock of very few, the Maple Leafs’ defense is still putrid, especially when it comes to slot protection — with Toronto relinquishing a league-high 36 hi-danger goals already this season.
Still, the book has been out on the Leafs for years now when it comes to their weaknesses — but a roster crafted by Dubas to cater to the NHL’s preference for speed and skill was still expected to pile on points in the standings thanks to an elite offense.
Well, that hasn’t exactly manifested either. While injuries to both Tavares and Marner (out at least four weeks due to an ankle injury) haven’t helped, the Leafs’ offense has been toothless for extended stretches — ranking 24th in the league in terms of expected goals despite holding a 53.70% shot share during 5v5 play (2nd in NHL).
So, where exactly does Toronto go from here? Firing Babcock seems to be the only logical option if the Leafs continue to tank, because overhauling this roster doesn’t seem to be tangible, given their lack of cap space.
By committing close to half of their entire cap space to four players in Matthews, Tavares, Marner and Nylander, the Leafs have hamstrung their club for the foreseeable future — with the team already $12.6 million over the cap off of a number of LTIR contracts.
**A look at Toronto's cap situation - via CapFriendly.)
And with five of Toronto’s six starting defenseman set to enter free agency next year, an already thin blue line is going to be decimated to even higher degree due to the Leafs’ mismanagement.
So yes, a little over a year ago, I wouldn’t blame you if you picked the Leafs to be the much better club over the next five years, at least when comparing them to the Bruins. But all it takes is a few ill-advised cap commitments and uninspired play to make what looked like a wagon of a young team into a club already at a crossroads — without the capital to improve without sweeping changes.
Brutal, brutal stuff up north.
OTHER NOTES:
Hats off to the Hockey Hall of Fame Class of 2019 — Hayley Wickenheiser, Guy Carbonneau, Sergei Zubov, Vaclav Nedomansky, Jim Rutherford and longtime Boston College coach Jerry York — who will formally be inducted on Monday night. Yes, I kid as a BU alum, but I have nothing but respect for York, who has continued to foster a winning culture at Chestnut Hill year after year. A well-deserved honor for coaching legend and ambassador for college hockey. And to the Canadian media ripping York for not showing up to Friday's Maple Leafs game for the pregame ring ceremony? Give me a break.
Speaking of Hockey East, how about UMass product Cale Makar, eh? The 2019 Hobey Baker winner is running away with the Calder Trophy early on this season, tallying five goals and 22 total points through 20 games with the Avalanche. Colorado has missed Mikko Rantanen for a month now due to an ankle injury, but Makar's play has more than picked up the playmaking slack since then. This Colorado team is ridiculously skilled, and given their age, should continue to get better and better as the year progresses.
Cale Makar with a filthy goal pic.twitter.com/oo5XSVIFXW
— Brady Trettenero (@BradyTrett) November 13, 2019