A first look at where the Celtics' 2019-20 draft stash stands

The Celtics are off to a stellar 8-1 start on the young NBA season and there have been plenty of calls for Danny Ainge to hit the trade market from a national standpoint to give this team some added depth due to their top-heavy starting group. The trade market won’t start picking up for this team until mid-December (when free agents signed last offseason are eligible to be dealt) but it’s not too soon to take a first look at what Ainge will have to work with from a draft asset standpoint in the coming months.

2019 marks a pivotal year for Boston’s long list of draft assets since it could end up being the final year (barring other moves) than the team has multiple first-round picks for the foreseeable future. With nearly one month of the NBA season in the books, let’s take stock at how the dominoes are beginning to fall around the association. Is the Grizzlies' pick still looking like it could roll over to 2021? Is there any danger of the Grizz pick turning into the Kings pick part II (i.e. far lower than originally projected)? And what’s the status of the C’s other picks? Let’s give a rundown of it all, along with some possibilities when it comes to using said assets in an eventual trade.

Grizzlies first-round pick (top-6 protected in 2020, unprotected in 2021)
Record: 3-7 (tied for fifth-worst in the NBA)
Analysis: This is a fun team on paper with plenty of new faces (Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke, Jae Crowder) and a new head coach in Taylor Jenkins who came over from Milwaukee in the offseason. The bad news for Boston: They are playing hard and fast, which has allowed them to pull out some wins over some quality opponents including the Spurs, Nets and Timberwolves.

The good news for the C’s? The early advanced numbers indicate this is a very bad team. The Grizzlies sit in the bottom six in both offensive (27th) and defensive rating (24th) in the early going. They don’t do anything well as a team when it comes to the four factors (shooting, turnovers, rebounding, free throw rate) and that’s indicative of a team that should struggle all year long, especially since there are some veteran trade candidates (Crowder, Kyle Anderson) in the mix.

Morant looks like a rookie of the year candidate early and Jaren Jackson is also playing well but none of the younger veterans are playing particularly well behind them. Jonas Valanciunas is on a minutes count early as he continues to work his way back from a foot injury. Thus Jones has been underwhelming off the bench. There really just isn’t a lot to get excited about beyond Morant/Jackson and those guys are good enough yet to carry this team to a lot of wins.

The question now is whether they will be bad enough to stay in the bottom six of the NBA, maximizing the C’s chances of having an unprotected pick in 2021. While the Warriors, Knicks and Wizards appear to be on a course for tanking, slow start has put a lot of talented teams in the league basement like the Pelicans and Magic. With expected subpar squads like the Hornets (4-6) and Cavs (4-5) overachieving early, it’s fair to guess that the Grizzlies will remain in the bottom 5-10 mix for the foreseeable future. Trades and injuries will separate the pack more in the early going but the Grizzlies aren’t overachieving like the Kings were early last year.

The tricky question for Ainge and the C’s front office involving this pick is weighing the risk/reward of keeping the pick for next year if it does, in fact, roll over to 2021. While it may be unprotected at that point, Morant and Jackson could be playing better at that stage, putting together the type of record that could push the Grizzlies towards the teens in 2021. Will the C’s elect to roll the dice or potentially sell high on this pick beforehand? Where this team goes in the next couple months will probably be a big indicator.

Will Celtics deal it this year? Highly unlikely it’s for a young impact player. That type of deal probably isn’t out there and may be tough to configure without the C’s including any of their top five pieces. With bigger names like Bradley Beal off the market, it’s hard to see the C’s touching this asset in-season.

Bucks first-round pick (top-7 protected)
Record: 7-3 (tied for No. 23 pick)
Analysis: The C’s traded away No. 24 overall at the draft in 2019 in order to get this 2020 selection rolled over and it remains projected to be in that range next June. The good news for Boston? Khris Middleton will be sidelined for the next month after suffering a left thigh contusion on Monday night. The Bucks had incredible injury luck last season (short of Malcolm Brogdon) with their key pieces and so losing their second-best scorer will challenge Milwaukee a bit to keep pace in the top half of the Eastern Conference that is better than expected early on.

Not only have the Celtics come out of the gate flying, but the Heat, Sixers, and Raptors all look like they will be in the mix for the top four seeds in the East all year long. The Bucks (on paper) have the best player and most talent out of that bunch but there is no reliable second scoring option on this roster besides Middleton (I wouldn’t count Eric Bledsoe as reliable). Due to that, this pick has a better chance of slipping into the mid-20s as the year progresses, seeing that the Bucks will have a tougher time matching their 60-win pace from last year.

A couple draft slots at the end of the first round shouldn’t make a huge difference but it will help the C’s a little bit if they end up shopping this pick for trade help midseason.

Will the Celtics deal it this year? I’d say this or the C’s own pick are the most likely selections to be moved midseason. This roster is full of younger players already and there won’t be room for three new rookies on next year’s team anyway (if the Grizzlies pick is conveyed in 2020). With the bench showing early on that there is room for an upgrade (particularly in the perimeter shooting department), it would not surprise me for the C’s to explore their options with this and potentially add a cost-controlled role player with a first-round pick serving as the bait.

Nets second-round pick
Record: 4-5 (projected for No. 45)
Analysis: This pick is actually the worst selection of the Nets/Knicks second-round picks but it feels pretty safe in assessing the Nets will be a better team after 82 games given how New York has started their year.

The good news for Boston is that while Kyrie Irving has gotten off to a superb start in his new home, the Nets have not followed suit. They have the sixth-worst defense in the NBA so far and have failed to take care of business against borderline playoff teams like the Pacers and Pistons early.

Second-round picks are obviously not very valuable in the NBA, but it helps a lot if you can sell your trade partner on the pick landing in the 40s as opposed to the 50s in the second round of the draft. Brooklyn is playing like a .500 team right now on paper and their supporting talent appears to be falling back to earth playing alongside Irving.

Will the Celtics deal it this year? It will be shopped for an upgrade. More likely to go if the first-round pick isn't moved.