Since the Patriots have had one competitive game to this point (Buffalo), and because it's the Patriots, it's become a cottage industry to guess what's going to happen with Tom Brady once his contract voids before the new league year starts.
Whether it's ranking the most likely outcome after this season — retirement, re-signing, or leaving for another team — to discussing what teams might make a run at Brady, everyone's getting in on the Brady-end-of-days content machine.
"I think it's just hype, media, and everyone's trying to make money and that's what it's about," Brady said this week.
"It's just ... part of it's just being Tom Brady, I guess."
Unlike the Netflix episode, Brady wasn't just casting aspersions upon the media this time. He's telling the truth. What Adam Schefter said Monday on ESPN wasn't anything he or any of us hasn't said in previous months, ever since his contract "extension" was announced and it was clear Brady was going to be a free agent after this season. It was clear last year that Brady and the club now had a year-to-year relationship.
But since the Patriots were 6-0 and it was a mismatch with the Jets — especially in the aftermath of that blowout it's been even worse with the Browns and Freddie Kitchens up next — the media needed something to talk about. We know the defense is awesome, and it has little to do with the schedule to this point. We know the offense is a work in progress. The Josh Gordon-Mohamed Sanu drama as a nice distraction, but Brady content is always gold. And they were off.
Here's the truth about Brady's future ...
... he has no idea what's coming next.
"My situation hasn't changed," Brady said. "I'm just focused on what I'm always focused on, which is this week, trying to be a great quarterback for this team."
Sure, Brady is selling his house. Alex Guerrero has accepted an offer on his house. Brady may have bought a place in southern Connecticut. So what? You can't rent or buy another place if circumstances change? You can't begin to move your post-career life to another locale while keeping your feet in your old stomping grounds? Brady, who loves buying and selling real estate, and his wife have plenty of money to do whatever they want. If Phillip Rivers can commute from San Diego to Los Angeles in a bus each day, Brady could certainly go back and forth via helicopter (we checked, it's about an hour flight) if he wanted to.
Brady could absolutely retire after this season. Brady could decide to take John Elway or Mike Vrabel or Dean Spanos up on offers to set up his own shop with them.
Why are all those options suddenly now on the table?
After a long stretch of speed bumps and potholes since Super Bowl LI, Brady's finally worn down.
When Brady talked with Peter King in Montana after the Falcons Super Bowl, Brady sounded like he was going to play forever, and he talked about not wanting to play for another team or another coach. At that time, Brady had an intact offensive line (Nate Solder, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Marcus Cannon). He had a group of weapons he trusted implicitly (Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis, James White, Rob Gronkowski-injured, Danny Amendola, Malcolm Mitchell, Chris Hogan). The defense was coming along and had a core that could grow.
Things were good for the reigning NFL MVP. The team would add Brandin Cooks in the offseason. Why wouldn't Brady be upbeat about the future?
Then things started to slide:
- Heir apparent Jimmy Garoppolo was not traded in the offseason, with Brady coming off a career-year and when Garoppolo's trade value was highest. Schefter said Garoppolo would not be traded under any circumstances. What kind of signal do you think that sent to the then-40-year-old quarterback? What more did he have to do?
- Guerrero's status was basically reduced to that of any other personal trainer, making it harder for Brady to get the treatment that allowed him to win the MVP.
- Garoppolo is finally traded before the trade deadline, but Brady's expected contract extension — and long-term security after beating off his challenger — is nowhere to be found.
- While Brady was playing the game of his life in Super LII with 505 yards and three touchdowns, Bill Belichick left starting cornerback Malcolm Butler on the bench the entire game while Eagles backup Nick Foles ripped through the Patriots' defense for 538 total yards and 41 points. A chance at a sixth ring was gone.
- Butler, Danny Amendola, Dion Lewis and Nate Solder left in free agency. Patriots start their budget veteran target shopping with Jordan Matthews, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kenny Britt and Eric Decker. Phillip Dorsett comes aboard the week of the season opener. Gronkowski is no longer an every-down option in the passing game.
- Brady stops showing up at offseason workouts.
- Brady again doesn't receive an extension. But he agrees to tweak his contract for incentives, which he will not reach.
- During the 2018 season, the passing offense is basically a mess the entire season but finds enough plays through the brilliance of Brady, Edelman, Gronkowski and Josh McDaniels to edge the Rams in Super Bowl LIII.
- Gronkowski retires. No replacement is brought in. While N'Keal Harry is drafted in the first round, Demaryius Thomas, Dontrelle Inman, Maurice Harris and Lance Kendricks are the targets supplied to Brady in the offseason. None would play a snap for the Patriots.
- It's do-or-die time for Brady's contract extension ... and the Patriots don't offer Brady any security. He agrees to help the team's cap situation with dummy years tacked on, but in exchange, he wants his contract to void on the last day of the league year and the team can't place the franchise tag on him.
- Brady and Guerrero place their homes on the market.
- Brady practices all summer against a Patriots defense that is at least two-deep with NFL starters at every position who have played multiple years together in the same system. At the roster cutdown, none of those defenders are traded or released to help the spread the wealth around to the offense.
- Meanwhile, Brady spends most of the summer throwing to Harris, Jakobi Meyers, Gunner Olszewski, Braxton Berrios, Matt LaCosse, Stephen Anderson and Ryan Izzo. A thin offensive line loses Andrews and LT Isaiah Wynn, and basically has to start pulling people off the street or trading for backups.
- The team signs Antonio Brown and trades Thomas. Brown is released after 11 days for threatening text messages, while the Chiefs were rewarded for keeping Tyreek Hill all offseason despite apparent threatening domestic conversations, and he's not suspended.
- While the defense is on an NFL-record pace for domination, the Patriots' offense has rarely been this inefficient. Bill Belichick says the goal of the offense is to gain yards and score points. The Patriots are 20th in yards per drive, and 10th in points per drive (no doubt helped by the second-best field position in the league and league-leading 22 turnovers caused by the defense). And of the 58 meaningful Brady-led drives since taking a 20-0 lead over the Jets in Week 3, the Patriots have punted or committed a turnover 69 percent (40).
- There's no point in watching the Browns' last game against the Seahawks because Seattle plays so much zone and is much different offensively than the Patriots.
- The 49ers are a much closer match on both sides of the ball, especially on defense where they're the only team to play more man coverage than the Patriots.
- The Browns' offensive line can't sustain against any type of pass rush. LT Justin McCray (Greg Robinson and Kendall Lamm are in the mix), RG Eric Kush and RT Chris Hubbard are not NFL starters at those positions. LG Joel Bitonio and C J.C. Tretter, however, are excellent and proven.
- QB Baker Mayfield loves to find passing lanes to step up and throw in, and is more effective that way than just in the pocket. A disciplined rush will be important, the Patriots will want to collapse the pocket on Mayfield.
- Freddie Kitchens' offensive system is sound and well-coached. They're actually a pretty good offense, it's just they make a ton of mistakes, from dropped passes to missed blocks. They'll have two great plays, and then Mayfield will throw a high pass. Another couple, and there's a drop. Very little consistency, and it starts with the line.
- Mayfield takes way too many risks. When time is running short in the pocket, he'll just heave passes into coverage.
- The Browns have some nice pieces on defense — DE Myles Garrett, DE Olivier Vernon, CB Greedy Williams — but are not good as a unit. Talk about undisciplined.
- And DC Steve Wilks plays a lot of zone. Good luck with that.
- The 49ers used a lot of multiple TEs for leverage in the running game, and tight formations with the pass to exploit the zones. The 49ers used a lot of jet sweeps and crossing patterns to exploit coverage. It seemed they didn't want to play the Browns head up a lot in the tackle box.
- LB Mack Wilson is good against the run but he is terrible in pass coverage — and stays on in sub. So look for the Patriots to take advantage of that with some wheel routes.
Line: Patriots by 11. O/U: 43. Season: 7-0, 4-3 ATS.