Over/Under: 10 predictions for the Celtics season

Instead of going through a usual roundup of predictions, let’s spice things up a little bit with some over/unders on key categories and players for the upcoming Celtics season.

Points per Game: Kemba Walker
Over/Under: 22.5

Prediction: Under.

He averaged 25 ppg last year but that was a career season for the 29-year-old point guard. While he should get plenty of opportunities in Boston, there is also a lot more firepower to support him on the offensive end. Walker seems to have embraced taking on a secondary role in the offense at times based on how he played in the preseason and that unselfish mindset should lead to fewer shot attempts for him on the whole. I'd expect his scoring efficiency to be much higher than his 41.4 percent career average from the field but he should only crack the 20 points per game barrier slightly. 

Assists per Game: Kemba Walker
Over/Under: 6

Prediction: Over.

This will be a byproduct of the C's system and an improved supporting cast. Walker has only clear six assists per game once in his career but he may now have the three best teammates of his career surrounding him in Boston, depending on how much Jaylen Brown breaks out this year. Walker won't handle the rock as much as Charlotte but he will still demand plenty of attention wherever he is on the floor. That's going to lead to defenses collapsing on him and lots of kickouts to open shooters. As long as that perimeter shooting comes through for Boston, I expect this number to be cleared easily for Walker. 

Points per Game: Gordon Hayward
Over/Under: 15

Prediction: Under.

The Celtics would love Hayward to crush this mark but it's hard to see him getting the necessary opportunity to do so consistently while surrounded by Tatum/Walker/Brown in the starting five. There are only so many shots to go around and while Hayward's aggression at the rim improved this preseason, a lot is still going to be dependent on his 3-point shot. He's been hot and cold with that accuracy throughout his career (33 percent last season) so unless his free throw volume returns (a tough ask in the wake of his injury), I just don't see him putting up this number on a regular basis. 

Points per Game: Enes Kanter
Over/Under: 12.5

Prediction: Under.

It was a relatively quiet preseason for the new center who seems to be set for bench duty in most matchups to start the year as Brad Stevens opts for defense with Daniel Theis. That's not necessarily a bad thing for Kanter's offense as he will get more scoring chances with the second unit. However, the degree of difficulty on those shots may be going up with lesser talent surrounding him. Opposing defenses should be able to key on him more and without a reliable 3-point shot to fall back on for quick buckets, this is a number I feel confident that Kanter won't reach. He may not play the minutes needed either to get there due to his defensive weaknesses. 

Games Started: Daniel Theis
Over/Under: 40

Prediction: Over.

Trust is a huge thing for Stevens on the defensive end and this is clearly the only true center that provides that after watching the preseason. The German center has been in the system for two years and while he tends to foul too much, he provides a nice balance of rim running and shooting on offense along with a good defensive IQ. There will be some nights when Stevens won't feed him to the wolves if he's facing a huge size mismatch in the middle but this feels like the default option for Boston on most nights. 

Points per game: Jaylen Brown
Over/Under: 14.5

Prediction: Over.

With his future contractual situation no longer hanging over him, I'd expect the Celtics new $100 million dollar man to play free. He was limited in his scoring chances last year but a bounceback year for him at the 3-point line should make this an attainable number given how well he's been attacking the paint this fall. He's going to have some mismatches as well on the offensive end with the C's smaller lineup alignment so that should bode well for his game. 

Points per Game: Jayson Tatum
Over/Under: 19

Prediction: Under.

There will be better shot selection but I don't think there is going to be enough shots heading his way on a nightly basis to pass this number. Walker may be deferring a bit more but Hayward and Brown will be seeking out more scoring chances as well with chuckers like Marcus Morris and Terry Rozier out of the picture. Tatum should finish second in field goal attempts when all is said and done but I'd be surprised if he was able to surpass 18 points per game. 

All-Stars from the Celtics
Over/Under: 1.5

Prediction: Under.

The weakening of the Eastern Conference talent pool should open the door a bit for one of Tatum/Hayward/Brown to break through but I think there will just be too much balanced scoring to keep one of them from sticking out from the rest of the pack. Tatum easily has the best shot based on his improved scoring mindset but I think it will take one more year for him to make the leap to All-Star level. 

Regular season win total for Celtics
Over/under: 49.5

Prediction: Under.

Having this number be on par with last year's team seems ridiculous when you compare the talent level of the two squads, but this is clearly a nod towards Brad Stevens being able to maximize his personnel with guys that embrace the system. Walker should be a great fit and this group will be a ton of fun to watch but the weaknesses in the frontcourt against an Eastern Conference with lots of size and talent up front makes this number a bit lofty. Let's pencil in 48 wins and the No. 3 seed regardless. 

Playoff rounds for Celtics
Over/under: 2

Prediction: Push.

The Celtics will be able to make it out of the first round no matter where they land in what should be a tight Eastern Conference race between seeds 3-6. Getting past the Sixers or Bucks in round two is too tall of an ask though without a big trade to improve the frontcourt. Ainge has the assets to pull off that kind of a deal but I expect him to remain patient with his best trade pieces (i.e. the Memphis pick) until this group is closer to title contention.