No, I wasn't sampling the legalized product in the Commonwealth when I wrote the Patriots' offense had hit rock-bottom in the 35-14 victory over the Giants that moved New England to a perfect 6-0.
If you think Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels and Tom Brady took the last 11 days off since there's obviously nothing to worry about given their unblemished record, then I have some marshland on the Cape to sell you.
And if you needed further evidence about where this offense is right now, I'm happy to provide it. And then we'll get into why I have some optimism that we'll see the slow ascension of this unit starting with tonight's game against a solid Jets defense at the Meadowlands.
First, some drive stats numbers from FootballOutsiders.com to put the Patriots' standing into historical perspective against themselves — other Patriots teams, especially the offense, are always the bar used to measure around here:
[table id=379 /]
Basically, they've bottomed out compared to themselves.
They are putting up their worst points per drive, yards per drive and touchdowns per red zone entry. They have among their worst numbers in three-and-outs per drive. Their success rate, which is a drive that features a first down or touchdown, is at their lowest rate ever — and those failed 2013 and '15 offenses are the only ones that rival them.
And the Patriots have underachieved this much despite their best field position per drive since 2010, and facing the 27th easiest schedule for an offense.
Thank goodness for that defense.
So, yeah, not great to this point. But we're done with pointing out how much Brady and Co. have sputtered. We're done being a Debbie Downer (or, you know, a realist) when it comes to the offense.
We're going to channel our inner TB12 and go with all positive thoughts from here on out (ok, just in this story), and give you five reasons why there should be some optimism for this group to begin to rise from the ashes starting tonight:
1. Rest for the weary
Since opening the season on Sunday Night Football against the Steelers, the Patriots played the next two games in heat (Miami, home vs. Jets), played three road games in the first four weeks and the third home game was Thursday Night Football on three days rest. The Patriots' offense was running 70 plays per game, compared to 56 for the defense.
So there's definitely been a fatigue factor so far, and that hasn't helped guys like Marshall Newhouse, who went from being a street free agent to playing 368 snaps in four-plus games. There were no summer hills for that guy. Others like Julian Edelman, Matt LaCosse, Josh Gordon and Shaq Mason have already had to play through the type of nagging injuries you usually don't see until the second half of the season.
But with this 11-day break, and the bye week starting two weeks from today after the Sunday Night tussle in Baltimore, this is a really good chance for these guys to catch their breath, rest their legs a bit, and come out firing tonight.
2. The personnel can reset.
Related to the above, let's take Newhouse as an example. He hadn't practiced since Aug. 19 with New Orleans before he was put on IR and then released. He signs with the Patriots on Sept. 11 and plays 71 snaps in the heat of Miami four days later, and an average of 73.6 snaps through the Giants game (on short rest). Does that guy have any idea where he is, really?
TE Ryan Izzo was a bit of a surprise to make the roster and probably did only because LaCosse sprained his ankle in the preseason and Ben Watson was suspended. So he goes from a bit/maybe role, to playing 79 snaps against the Giants because LaCosse and two fullbacks can't stay healthy.
Jakobi Meyers and Gunner Olszewski could also benefit from a few days to go over the film with their position coaches and really make some technical improvements to mesh with Brady a little bit better.
And, frankly, Brady could probably use a view from 10,000 feet to see exactly what's real and perceived when it comes to his protection and also which guys are getting open and should maybe be targeted a little bit more.
In general, this is a great time to gain valuable internal information and apply it going forward.
3. Coaches have had a lot of time to think and tinker.
While the rest of us reintroduced ourselves to our families, raked some leaves and started to clean out the gutters, the offensive coaching staff probably didn't take much time off. They know the numbers. They know how far off they are from holding up their end of this pigskin bargain. So I'm going to assume that McDaniels and Co. — while hoping for reinforcements — started their meetings last Monday with a couple simple questions: What are we good at, and what should we junk?
In the compress of the regular season, it often becomes difficult to get a really good reset when it comes to what you're doing. When you have people going in and out of the lineup, from Isaiah Wynn and James Develin, to Edelman, Gordon, LaCosse and Rex Burkhead, it makes it even tougher. You're basically doing triage every week, instead of performing the surgery needed.
This the first real chance that McDaniels and, especially, Dante Scarnecchia have had a chance to kick back and really talk about the issues with the squad, and how they can navigate through them. Each game-planning session before this was about the opponent. The early part of this past week could be spent on themselves, and that's a huge amount of great information being generated.
Among the tweaks I expect to see:
- More TE/G pulls: With Izzo, hopefully, back more in his role as a move tight end and Ben Watson and Eric Tomlinson around to throw some real blocks, I would expect the Patriots to try to get their power run game going again with some plays that have worked, like pulling a guard with a TE or FB. Expect Tomlinson to get a lot of looks at fullback, and the Patriots need all the help they can get against linebackers on the second level because Ted Karras can't get there. The one place on the line the Patriots have been elite running the ball? Left guard behind the consistent Joe Thuney.
- Return of the stretch runs: Between Newhouse on one side, and Izzo on the other, the Patriots' outside zone (or stretch runs) have basically been a disaster. Now the Patriots have the ability to have two adults (Watson, Tomlinson) sit outside both tackles and hold the point of attack. If the Patriots can run outside, it will open up the inside more.
- Targets for Dorsett and Meyers: After looking at the film, the Patriots will realize Dorsett's struggles against Buffalo really came from Brady and the Bills, and not his own doing. And Brady will probably realize Meyers, though far from perfect, is pretty good if you put it on him.