Holy hell.
That's really all I had left to say after re-watching the Patriots' offensive performance in their 35-14 victory over the Giants. It was as bad as you thought watching it live.
I've never really seen anything like it from this outfit. There have certainly been poor offensive games from the Patriots — last season had plenty of them — but this was just systematically terrible. The only game that really rivals it in my own mind was the 2015 41-14 Monday Night Massacre at Kansas City. Possibly last year at Tennessee.
It was so bad that now I have to invent statistics to quantify how bad this was.
I bring you, Failed Play Percentage. Taking out seven short-yardage plays and kneeldowns, the Patriots had 23 failed plays (basically, any runs 2 yards or less, negative passes and turnovers). That's 32.4 percent. So the Patriots basically failed on one of every three snaps.
That sure seems like a lot to me, but I don't have any reference. However, STATS LLC has been tracking a Successful Play Percentage for several years, and while the exact formula isn't explained, it's much more stringent (a quality rush: 1st Down — a rush play achieves greater than or equal to 40% of the yardage necessary for a 1st Down; 2nd Down — a rush play that achieves greater than or equal to 50% of the yardage necessary for a 1st Down; 3rd and 4th Down — a rush play that results in a 1st Down). The league average this season, for example, is 48.8 percent.
The Patriots this season actually are above the league average at 49.6 percent. But their league ranking and how they fail to stack up to previous Patriots offenses really tells the tale of woe for this group.
We'll dispel with some of the misconceptions about this group by ranking the issues that are killing the efficiency of this offense. Marshall Newhouse, Sony Michel, the pass protection, Ryan Izzo (he was bad in this game, but we'll explain why he was a patsy), Josh McDaniels and the lack of #weaponzzz WILL NOT be prominent on the list — but here's the chart that sort of tells you where this offense is right now.
How the Patriots stack up in Successful Play Percentage, going back all the way to 2001:
Basically, this — 13th in the league in efficiency — is uncharted territory for the Patriots' offense in the modern passing game. Since Tom Brady's injury in 2008, the Patriots have basically been in the top six nearly every season, and they've finished in the top 2 five times.
The two previous times they've been eighth or worse, they wound up losing in the AFC Championship Game in Denver thanks to anemic offenses (26-16, 20-18).
That's not to suggest that I think this team will suffer the same fate — New England has never seen a defense like this in the past 10 years, so the team is better overall — but it underscores just how dreadful they've been.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
And I don't think the offense will stay here; perhaps they can climb out of this, admittedly, deep hole to sixth by the end of the season. Bill Belichick, McDaniels, Dante Scarnecchia and Brady are too smart and experienced not to get this offense to a moderately (for them) efficient place.
How are they going to do it? I'm not really sure because of a cap crunch that really leaves them limited — after all, they could really use upgrades at several spots. Here's how I would rank them in terms of urgency:
Problem No. 1: Center
I do love me some Steady Teddy Karras and he's been mostly solid in pass protection. But his lack of athletic ability is killing this rushing attack and screen game, and he's getting worse by the week — after previously never playing more than 174 snaps, he's up to 483, and it's showing.
Karras isn't a terrible athlete, but what we learned last season is that the Patriots' run and screen game really pops when David Andrews — OK, we underrated his athletic ability, sorry — Joe Thuney and Shaq Mason (more on him in a minute) are getting out on linebackers and helping Michel get past the second level. I think the Patriots could have gotten by in this area if it wasn't for Mason's sudden decline. But when you decline Karras' poor blocking on the run, with Mason not getting any push, even on pulls, you have the recipe for a disaster.
Karras is also not as adept at the checks and calls as Andrews, and that's limiting what Brady can do at the line of scrimmage. More of a problem.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
HOW TO FIX IT: Unless they want to give serious consideration to moving Thuney to center — Jermaine Eluemunor looks like a complete bust (glad they traded for him and Korey Cunningham ... to do what exactly?) — I doubt that's going to happen. Maybe they bring back Russ Bodine, who might be a slight upgrade on quickness but has played a lot of football and is known to be very smart. Outside of that, I'm making a trade for a center a top priority. I don't know if they can run the ball without it.
One player I would look at is Panthers center Matt Paradis, who signed a big-money contract with them in the offseason but Carolina can get out of it — and so can the Patriots if they choose to after this season. Paradis was excellent in Denver but has really struggled in his first season with Carolina.
The Buccaneers also gave Ryan Jensen a big contract, but it's pay-as-you go, so it's tradable. The Bucs would have to give him a bonus to make his salary manageable for the Patriots. Probably a longshot.
Others I would have interest in: JC Tretter (Browns), Jon Halapio (Giants).
2. A dependable fullback.
James Develin and the promising Jakob Johnson are done for the year. If the Patriots don't make a move for a center, then another fullback is a must. The Patriots finally started to get things cooking with the ground game because they began pulling the fullback with Thuney — since Karras couldn't do it — to have a semblance of a power running game.
HOW TO FIX IT: I don't care. Just find somebody who can block. Elandon Roberts isn't doing much on defense, see if he can do it. I'm fairly serious.
3. A dependable, healthy tight end who can block.
This is not a knock on Ryan Izzo as much as it's an indictment on the health of Matt LaCosse, who could barely walk out of the locker room after the Giants game and continues to be plagued by that high ankle sprain that gets re-injured after five plays. That's not his fault, but that's the deal. Izzo can't be left as the only tight end anymore. He certainly can't be left as the only tight end and fullback, which happened against the Giants and led to the worst blocking performance I've ever seen out of either position. Again, that's not a knock on him. Izzo, who looked like he sustained a right knee injury earlier to boot, was the sacrificial lamb in that game. The Patriots had a gameplan and those plays had to be run. Izzo had to play and hold up ... that it largely failed is not his fault. He was largely a victim of circumstance.
HOW TO FIX IT: It might be time to break the ... no, not Ben Watson, I said someone who can block ... the Dwayne Allen glass. Yes, it's that bad. Or go get a guy like Arizona's Maxx Williams. Or find someone with upside on a practice squad. Anyone who can block will do.
4. Do something about Shaq Mason.
Mason is playing, by far, the worst ball of his career, and it's only marginally improving. And don't take my word for it. Here are Mason's yearly grades from ProFootballFocus.com:
Mason just can't anchor or get any push in the running game without the help of a double team.
HOW TO FIX IT: I still believe he's hurt. If that's the case and he needs to be shut down to get him right, then do it. He is very much hurting the cause at this point and losing him for the season might be catastrophic.
5. Go get some outside speed or an old reliable.
OK, maybe I lied about the #weaponzzz. That sort of changed with Josh Gordon going down — and I don't expect him for at least 2-4 weeks, and even then he probably won't be very explosive. Yes, Brady has to learn to work with Jakobi Meyers and Gunner Olszewski, but they need someone else.
HOW TO FIX IT: Package Michael Bennett and maybe another defender for ... someone. I'll take Danny Amendola.
But the bottom line is while the general public wants a real weapon, I think that person would be useless unless the things above are addressed first and foremost. The Patriots are going to need to run the ball to win in January, and a Stefon Diggs (highly doubt it) isn't going to change that.
NOT ON THE NEEDS LIST
Left tackle/Marshall Newhouse: He actually wasn't that bad in this game outside the bad sack — he only had two other hurries. Newhouse is also part of the reason why the line has no push in the run game, but the Patriots are banking on Isaiah Wynn's return and the team can't address every single need. They will sink or swim with Wynn at left tackle.
Running back/Sony Michel: Yes, he's more tentative this season and obviously lacks confidence. But if the blocking is better, he'll be better. Again, he's a get-whats-blocked back. Nothing wrong with that. There's nothing there right now. But, yes, it wouldn't hurt to take a look at Damien Harris, who is lost in the Jonas Gray Memorial Witness Protection Program.
Here are the positional ratings against the Giants (the offense is going to be quick due to the length above):
OFFENSE
[table id=377 /]
Quarterback (3.5 out of 5)
Another bad interception, but it was a tough night to throw the football and the blocking was so bad in the running game that Brady probably demanded to call his own number. ... Brady gets half a sack on the strip-sack because he held it for 4 seconds. Mason got the other half for pulling and not blocking anyone. No play is designed for Izzo to block a good outside linebacker for 4 seconds. Mason should have helped Izzo. ... But overall Brady really battled and gutted through this one. Had his share of standout plays as well.
Running backs (4 out of 5)
They were fine. What happened was not their fault.
Receivers (2 out of 5)
Edelman was a stud, but he also had two drops and three poor run blocks (one holding penalty). ... Edelmen did have a great block on James White’s pass/jet sweep to the goal line. Newhouse never sealed the tackle, who ended up preventing the touchdown. ... LaCosse blocked the wrong guy on a 1-yard White run.
Offensive line (2.5 out of 5)
The only blemish for Thuney was the sack, and you could tell it really bothered him. PFF has Thuney as the fourth-best left guard in the NFL. I can't argue with Quinton Nelson, Joel Bitonio and Ali Marpet. But he's right there. ... Thuney is 10th overall and Mason is 24th. ... End of the promising opening drive, the Patriots tried to run behind Mason twice — one on a pull, the other on a straight-up block looking for 1 yard — and basically got nothing. Mason was handled by two players he would normally handle. ... On a 3-yard Michel run in the second quarter, Mason didn't sustain his block on the linebacker, who leveled Michel. ... On the 3rd-and-10 screen to White to end the second drive, Karras left early, which threw off the timing for Thuney and led to a short gain. .... Order of effectiveness: Thuney, Cannon, Newhouse, Mason, Karras.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
DEFENSE
[table id=378 /]
Defensive line (5 out of 5)
Check out Deatrich Wise two-gapping against good LG Will Hernandez for a run stuff on the second play of the game. Talk about an area of improvement for Wise. He used to be a highway in the run game. … This was Wise’s best all-around game maybe ever. … The Patriots had their best game against the run, and it started with the interior of Lawrence Guy, Danny Shelton and Wise, as usual. I’m sure it helped that the Giants were down to their third-string running back — who they just cut . … Kyle Van Noy was outstanding again with five impactful plays, second only to Stephon Gilmore. … The Giants' offensive line held up nicely against the Patriots’ pressure, which mostly came as a result of coverage and/or the score getting tilted. … Nate Solder had a great game, until Chase Winovich came in.
Linebackers (4.5 out of 5)
Dont’a Hightower had a couple of questionable plays, but was great overall. Hurt his shoulder again with 2:47 left in the third quarter when Hernandez was called for a bogus holding penalty. … Jamie Collins snuffed out two screens and was a little quiet, but that’s because he was mostly the Mike in this game and played in control.
Secondary (5 out of 5)
Bad ball placement by Daniel Jones on the first interception, but nice play by Stephon Gilmore and John Simon. … Gilmore read Jones and Cody Lattimer for a pass breakup to end the next series. … Duron Harmon didn’t exactly sprint over to help Jonathan Jones on the touchdown to Golden Tate. It really was just a great throw and catch, but it shouldn’t have gone for a touchdown. Harmon should have been there to clean it up. … Didn't look like Gilmore was perfect in this game. He was in man coverage on the 18-yard pass on the first drive of the second half. Everyone else was playing zone. Appeared to leave Harmon out to dry. … But he totally fooled Jones on his second pick. The smash concept the Giants used should lead to an open receiver there, but Gilmore was just better. … Gilmore was just largely outstanding. Five pass breakups (part of two interceptions) is a season for most guys. … JC Jackson may be touted by the PFFs of the world, but he nearly allowed another big play when he turned for the ball but the pass sailed out of bounds. That’s the third one this season. He’s going to get burned one of these times.
THREE UP
Stephon Gilmore: Are the lights on? Check. National TV audience? Check. Get ready for Gilmore to shut everyone down.
Kyle Van Noy: He's the straw that stirs the drink on the front seven.
Jakobi Meyers: Yup. For what he was asked to do in this game, he was terrific and should have earned more playing time.
THREE DOWN
Ryan Izzo: Not his fault because he has to be both a TE and a fullback after injuries, but I had him for 10 minus plays and three on the plus side. Actually felt bad for him. He took a big one for the team.
Ted Karras: He's becoming more of a problem every week. Time to get an alternative.
Shaq Mason: When you find the real Shaq Mason, let us know. Because that's not him out there.