There are another few weeks still before the offseason is upon us in earnest, and with it, the trade chatter that fills the Hot Stove League.
But you can be reasonably certain that somewhere in the Fenway Park offices, there is someone tasked with coming up with a list of teams who might be a logical trading partner with the Sox for Mookie Betts -- should it get to that point.
Publicly at least, the Red Sox continue to say that their first priority remains getting a contract extension done with Betts, making clear that they see him as a franchise-type player whom they wish to finish his career in a Sox uniform. And undoubtedly, there will be continued dialogue with Betts and his representatives. (Chairman Tom Werner revealed last month that he and Sam Kennedy had talked extensively with the group in the final month of the season).
But that doesn't change the fact that Betts has indicated, while he doesn't preclude remaining in Boston, that he intends to go to free agency and see what the market has to offer.
That represents a big risk for the Red Sox, who could lose Betts to another team with a draft pick as their only consolation.
And should the Sox listen on Betts, it's likely the offers they get in return will be far less than what some fans are expecting. Under no circumstances will the Sox get the kind of franchise-altering return for Betts.
As talented as he is -- and there can be no debate that he qualifies as one of the handful of best overall players in the game -- his trade value is greatly limited by the fact that he has but one year of control left. Moreover, that one year is likely to cost a team, at minimum $27 million.
Those two factors alone thin out the pool of potential landing spots for Betts. Any interested team must be good enough to believe that a player the caliber of Betts could be the difference-maker, and be willing to pay him the $27 million. (Based on last year's salaries, a $27.7 million salary -- the exact amount estimated by MLBTradeRumors.com's reliable arbitration-predictor -- Betts would be about the 11th highest-paid player in the game at that amount).
Of course, we're eliminating some teams from this exercise. For instance, the Red Sox aren't about to trade Betts to the Yankees, even if it's only for a season.
1. Atlanta Braves: This is logical enough, but perhaps not for the reasons you might think. A number of people believe that Atlanta is Betts's first choice in free agency, mostly due to the fact that it's the MLB team closest to his Tennessee home. But Braves' ownership hasn't shown the willingness to hand out the sort of deal that Betts will surely command, preferring to instead focus on developing its own core of players while augmenting them with shorter-term free agent and more affordable complementary players. But tellingly, the Braves were willing to splurge on a one-year deal for Josh Donaldson last year ($23 million); the gambit paid off as Donaldson led the team in home runs and helped lead them to a division title. Another factor: the Braves certainly fit as the proverbial "one-player-away'' model, having won the NL East in each of the last two seasons before losing the NLDS. And finally, the Braves have a surplus of pitching prospects, the kind which might entice the Sox.
2. Texas Rangers: The Rangers are moving across the street to a new ballpark in 2020 and teams often like to make a big splash when doing so. What better opportunity to demonstrate ownership's willingness to spend than to obtain one of the game's best players? It can be argued that the Rangers need starting pitching far more than another bat, but given the paucity of free-agent options (after Gerrit Cole, there's a sizeable drop-off) the Rangers could take another approach in their efforts to improve.
3. New York Mets: GM Brodie Van Wagenen has already demonstrated a penchant for bold moves (typified by last winter's blockbuster that landed the Mets Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz) and isn't afraid to defy convention (while reportedly looking to move starting pitching, he acquired Marcus Stroman). It didn't concern Van Wagenen that Stroman can be a free agent after 2020, and it won't bother him that Betts can be, too. And in the New York market, where stars matter and stealing some thunder from the Yankees is always welcome, Betts would generate interest and sell tickets.
4. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers have had a good run in recent years, but like most small-market teams, their window to compete is a relatively short one and with Christian Yelich free after 2022 and Lorenzo Cain aging, the time is now. Owner Mark Attanasio has never been afraid to make a big move, especially one that doesn't include long-term commitments. Obtaining Betts would require shifting Ryan Braun to first and perhaps moving on from Mike Moustakas, but getting a player the caliber of Betts would be worth any roster shuffle.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers don't lack for talent, especially in the outfield, with Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor and A.J. Pollock. But Betts is better than all of them except Bellinger and perhaps a player of his stature is what the Dodgers need to get over the hump, and surely, they could turn around and move one of their displaced outfielders to address other needs. Andrew Friedman doesn't like handcuffing himself with long-term deals, but this isn't one of those and surely the Dodgers can afford the one-year commitment. Finally, Los Angeles has a ton of young players who would interest the Sox and whose loss wouldn't cripple the talented Dodgers.
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- The sight of the Nationals and the Cardinals squaring off in the National League Championship Series -- having both pulled off comebacks and upsets in their respective Division Series -- is a reminder that their paths to October mirrored what the Red Sox thought would happen to their season. Like the Sox, both the Nationals and Cardinal began poorly and couldn't get out their own way for a while. The Nats were 19-31 through their first 50 games (for comparison's sake, the Sox were 27-23) while the Cards were 44-45 after their first game following the All-Star break. The Sox, too, though they were going to survive a slugging first few months and eventually have a hot streak that would vault them back into contention. As late as the end of August, "We know what we're capable of'' continued to be the unofficial mantra of the 2019 Sox. But the good run that served as a course correction for the Nationals and Cardinals -- both now a few wins away from a trip to the World Series -- never materialized for the Sox.
- Is it really 2019? Sometimes, it's hard to tell. Former Marlins president David Samson, notorious for his insensitive comments and whose chief accomplishment in life is being the son-in-law of former Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria, questioned Daniel Hudson's commitment to the Nationals. Hudson had the temerity to miss Game 1 of the NLCS to be with his wife, who was enduring a difficult pregnancy and gave birth on the day of the game. Is this something still worthy of debate?
- The ninth and 10th inning of Game 5 of the NLDS at Dodger Stadium was pretty much The Full Joe Kelly Experience, was it not? A one-two-three ninth, followed in short order by a 10th inning in which Kelly walked the leadoff man, then yielded a double and following an intentional walk, a back-breaking, game-winning, season-ending grand slam from Howie Kendrick. That's the forever enigmatic Kelly in a nutshell: unhittable one inning, and totally unreliable the next.
- Is it possible that, some 15 years ago, the Baseball Gods whispered to Dave Roberts: "OK, you can have this stolen base. But in return, you will never again enjoy that type of good fortune in October. Deal?'' Because sometimes, it sure looks like it. Even if, as some have suggested, Roberts is following orders from the front office and doesn't have complete autonomy on in-game strategy, he sure has lost some tough ones in the postseason.