With the Bruins now heading home after a 3-1 road trip to open the 2019-20 regular season, here’s a look at eight noteworthy stats that shed some light on a few of the strengths and weaknesses of this B’s club in the early going.
6.61: Boston’s 5v5 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes rate in 2019-20
While a stingy defense and a strong showing in net from both Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak have allowed Boston to open the new season with six out of a possible eight points, the B’s offense still has plenty of things to sort out.
With a high-danger scoring chance rate that tabs them 29th out of 31 teams in the league, the Bruins' inability to generate consistent, quality looks down low has been one of the key culprits as to why the B’s offense is only averaging 2.25 goals per game through four matchups.
The struggles of Jake DeBrusk and David Krejci to cash in down low stuck out like a sore thumb during this opening road trip (although video review did rob that line of a nifty 5v5 strike against Colorado), but it's not just those two top-six forwards.
We’ll expand on it a bit more later in the article, but Boston’s inability to find a consistent winger to the right of Charlie Coyle and Danton Heinen is also keeping that third line from maximizing its potential, while a few offensive-minded blueliners will also need to double their efforts against the opposition, especially given their favorable starts out on the ice.
It’s still a small sample size, but it’s hard to ignore that there are multiple spots in the lineup for Boston to correct in order to get the B’s offensive humming.
1.68: Jaroslav Halak’s goals saved above average
While Bruce Cassidy has plenty of work to do when it comes to getting his club’s 5v5 offense back on track, he hasn’t had to spend much time worrying about his options in net — as both Halak and Rask have been excellent in net through the first week-plus of game action.
Among netminders that have recorded at least 50 minutes of 5v5 TOI this season, Halak and Rask rank fourth and fifth overall in goals saved above average (GSAA) with marks of 1.68 and 1.2, respectively.
https://twitter.com/ConorRyan_93/status/1180669944444456960?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1180669944444456960&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bostonsportsjournal.com%2F2019%2F10%2F06%2Fbsj-game-report-bruins-1-coyotes-0-halak-stands-tall-posts-35-save-shutout-tight-win-coyotes%2F
GSAA is very similar to WAR in baseball in that it measures the production of individual goalies against the calculated league average netminder. So, through just two appearances each, Halak and Rask have stopped 1.68 and 1.2 goals more than what the average NHL goalie would have been able to halt. Pretty good.
With the B’s once again planning on maintaining a balanced schedule for both goalies this season, expect a lighter workload to continue to keep both Rask and Halak fresh during the grind of the regular season.
72.73: Torey Krug’s offensive-zone faceoff percentage so far this season:
Torey Krug is at his best when he’s operating along the blue line in the offensive zone, and it looks as though Cassidy and the Bruins are doing everything they can to put him in favorable spots to make the most of his playmaking capabilities.
When compared to the likes of other D-men on the roster like Charlie McAvoy (39.13 Off. Zone Faceoff %) and Matt Grzelcyk (40.74%), it’s fairly evident that Boston is emphasizing offense when deploying its second pairing of Krug and Brandon Carlo.
“Torey is our best guy at seeing the ice and finding those seams, so that's probably why we'll try to get him extra starts in the O-zone,' Cassidy said. "He's good at it. I have no problem where they start, O-zone or D-zone, but if we take advantage of that — every pair has a guy like that. Charlie, obviously, is mobile and so is Gryz, so I think we're covered in every pair. It’s just an opportunity to get him a few more starts, because he's our best offensive defenseman.”
The rationale is there for Krug to earn the lion’s share of favorable matchups, but the results have been lacking a bit. All of those O-zone starts have led to very strong shot-share totals (62-30 edge for Boston in shot attempts), but Boston has only been able to generate two high-danger scoring chances during the 50:33 of 5v5 TOI that Krug-Carlo has logged so far this year. With the amount of favorable reps handed to them, Boston is going to need a bit more offensive thump from that pairing.
1: The number of 5v5 goals scored by opponents during Zdeno Chara’s 74:19 of ice time:
He’s still matched up against top-six competition every night. He’s not given many favorable starts on the ice (a 39.53 Off. Zone Faceoff%). And yes, he is 42 years old.
But Zdeno Chara has once again been as advertised when it comes to serving as the defensive anchor of this D corps, with opponents only tallying one 5v5 goal during his 74 minutes of ice time — trailing only his D partner McAvoy (75:52) in terms of overall workload so far in 2019-20.
He may not be the perennial Norris Trophy candidate he was in previous years, but don’t overlook Chara and the large shadow he still casts over this D corps. When it comes to shutdown options on the blue line, he still remains as one of the best in the league.
4-0: The edge in scoring chances that Boston was able to generate Thursday when its fourth line was matched up with the MacKinnon Line:
Bergeron’s line can do it all out on the ice, but when that forward trio is at its best, it’s operating in the O-zone and freed from taxing shifts against an opposing top line down the other end of the ice.
Cassidy has been able to roll out Bergeron and Co. against lesser competition and exploit these matchups due to his fourth line’s ability to eat up minutes against top-six options — and Thursday night was no different for the B’s.
A reunited fourth line of Chris Wagner, Joakim Nordstrom and Sean Kuraly answered the call when asked to slow down Colorado’s buzzsaw of a line in Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog — as Colorado’s top forwards were unable to generate a single scoring chance against Halak in the five-plus minutes in which the B’s fourth line was matched up against them.
If that fourth line can continue to frustrate dynamic forwards, it will free up Bergeron and his line to focus more of their efforts in the O-zone — a good sign for a slumping 5v5 offense.
“I thought we defended, Kuraly had a lot of shifts - their line against MacKinnon,” Cassidy said Thursday. “I thought they did a real good job, frustrated them for the most part. They got their looks, don't get me wrong. Got a power-play goal. But for the 5v5, I thought Bergy and Kuraly there matched up well with them. I thought we can be proud of the work they did against them."
1.66: The high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes rate that Jake DeBrusk & David Krejci have generated so far this year
We touched on this quite a bit last night, but it’s a stark reminder of the struggles that Boston’s second line is dealing with in the early going this year.
This duo’s inability to generate quality looks down low represents a major drop off from last season, when their HDCF/60 rate was 9.87.
So far this year, opponents have outscored Boston, 1-0, and hold a 13-1 edge in high-danger scoring chances when Krejci and DeBrusk have been out on the ice together for 36:07 of 5v5 TOI.
Perhaps some home cooking could get that line back on track, but it’s rather obvious that two crucial pieces of Boston’s forward corps are in need of a major shot in the arm.
73:33: The Corsi-For Percentage for a line of Charlie Coyle, Karson Kuhlman and Danton Heinen this season
Boston’s second line has struggled so far in 2019-20, but Kuhlman looked right at home during the short stints in which he’s been bumped down to the third line. In just 7:04 of 5v5 TOI in which Cassidy has rolled out a Heinen-Coyle-Kuhlman trio — Boston holds a commanding 11-4 edge in shot attempts, 8-1 advantage in shots on goal and has generated six scoring chances.
That’s been far and away Boston’s most effective combination on that bottom-six line, especially when comparing it to the stretches in which both Brett Ritchie and David Backes have earned looks with No. 13 and No. 43.
Heinen-Coyle-Backes: 7:43 of 5v5 TOI - 31.25 CF%, outshot 6-4, 0 high-danger chances generated / 100.00 Off. Zone Faceoff%
Heinen-Coyle-Ritchie: 11:37 of 5v5 TOI - 31.82 CF%, outshot 10-3, 0 high-danger chances generated / 2 neutral-zone faceoffs
Not ideal.
2: The number of 5v5 goals that Boston has tallied in the 8:25 of TOI that Krejci and David Pastrnak have skated together
As Boston’s second line continues to slump, let’s not forget that the Bruins have managed to score two of their seven 5v5 goals so far this year during the short amount of time that Pastrnak and Krejci have skated together.
Once again, just something to think about.
https://twitter.com/ConorRyan_93/status/1182466882999324675
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, Corsica, Sean Tierney and HockeyViz.