McAdam: Salary arbitration estimates illustrate the tight squeeze Red Sox will face

As we now know, the Red Sox are going to try -- "a goal, not a mandate'' -- to keep their 2020 payroll under the first competitive balance tax threshold of $208 million.

But Wednesday brought further proof of just how difficult that task is going to be.

MLBTradeRumors.com, which annually predicts salary arbitration figures for those eligible and has done so with remarkable accuracy over the years, published its numbers for the Red Sox.

Their findings:



Mookie Betts $27.7 million
Jackie Bradley Jr. $11 million
Eduardo Rodriguez $9.5 million
Andrew Benintendi $4.5 million
Brandon Workman $3.4 million
Matt Barnes $3 million
Chris Owings $3 million
Sandy Leon $2.8 million
Steven Wright $1.5 million
Heath Hembree $1.6 million
Gorkys Hernandez $1 million
Marco Hernandez $700,000

Those 12 players -- among the most number of arbitration-eligible players for any team; only two teams (Philadelphia and Milwaukee) have more  -- will total an estimated $69.7 million.

Now, a number of players on that list are likely to be non-tendered, with the Red Sox relinquishing their rights to the players in question.

There's no way, for example. that the Sox are going to pay $3 million to utility infielder Chris Owings. They're also likely to non-tender Sandy Leon and Steven Wright. The Sox could always then attempt to retain someone like Leon at far less. If he signs elsewhere, they can find another backup receiver with catch-and-throw skills.

So those three represent a savings of $7.3 million, bringing the total down to $62.4 million.

But if you add those raises for arbitration-eligible players to the approximately $151 million already on the books for the Sox in guaranteed deals, you're at $213.4 million even before you add in several million more for players with 0-3 years of big-league experience. Granted, those players will all likely be well under $1 million each, but that could easily add another $5 million or so, taking them up over $218 million -- or $10 million over the initial CBT threshold.

And, of course, that doesn't allow for any meaningful additions through free agency, or create room to take on a veteran salary in a trade.

All of which is another reminder of how likely it is that the Sox will have to move some established players in deals -- while likely taking back some portion of their remaining salaries -- in order to reach their goal of re-setting their luxury tax rate.