In a more normalized free-agent market, J.D. Martinez would already have one foot out the door, ready to cash in -- again.
For three straight seasons, Martinez has hit .300 or better with 35 or more homers and knocked in 100 or more runs. Since the start of 2017, Martinez leads the majors in homers and is second in the game in RBI.
For players with at least 500 plate appearances in that span, he's second in both OPS and slugging percentage, with only Mike Trout posting higher rates.
When it comes to run producers and consistency, Martinez is on a very short list and is, at-worst, the third-best in that category.
Unfortunately for Martinez, the game has changed. Or more to the point, the business of the game has changed. Since Martinez is 32 years old, the market for him will not accurately reflect that value.
For the past few winters, baseball has not had much to offer 30-something sluggers. Nelson Cruz, who, granted, is seven years older than Martinez, nonetheless hit 37 homers last year in cavernous Safeco Field, while slugging .509. Know what happened to him last winter? He took a $2 million pay cut for a one-year deal with the Twins.
Again, seven years is a considerable gap. But still, here was a right-handed power hitter/mostly DH who saw his salary reduced.
The big deals are going to athletic types in the prime of their careers. Manny Machado got $300 million over 10 years and Bryce Harper got $330 million over 13 seasons. But they were in their mid-20s and could still contribute defensively.
Heck, go back two years to when Martinez was just 30. He had to wait until late February for a five-year, $110 million deal. And that was essentially the same deal the Sox had offered back in December. Martinez and his agent Scott Boras waited and waited all offseason hoping another bidder would emerge. None did. In the end, the only alternative Martinez had would have to go back to the Arizona Diamondbacks on a short-term deal.
The deal has worked fabulously for the Red Sox. By any definition, Martinez has already outperformed the deal.
In the next few weeks, Martinez will have a decision to make. As part of the contract, the Red Sox included opt-outs in the deal after this season and also after next. Martinez has until five days after the conclusion of the World Series to inform the Sox if he's opting out.
If he opts out, it's as though he's a free agent. The Red Sox could still re-sign him, but that would require them to offer another year or two, or to boost his salary.
Especially given their desire to reduce payroll in order to get under the first competitive balance tax (CBT) of 2008, it's virtually impossible to conceive that the Red Sox would be open to meeting his request for a raise and/or longer term. If he opts out of his deal, he's as good as gone.
But I don't think that will happen in the first place. Here's why:
- Martinez has three years and $62.5 million coming to him on his existing deal with the Red Sox. Again, he would have to have faith that he could either get some team to give him a fourth year at, at least, the same salary (four years and a minimum of $83.3 million), or give him a three-year deal in excess of $62.5 million. Neither scenario is likely.
- Even if another team is willing to offer a slight increase in total value -- call it three years, $66 million -- would it really be worth it for Martinez to go elsewhere for a few million dollars spread over three years? Martinez enjoys hitting in Fenway, in a lineup that features plenty of protection and support. Mookie Betts may only be under control for another season, but Xander Bogaerts is headed for at least six more years and Rafael Devers is here for a minimum of four more. Those two alone represent a strong surrounding cast.
- Martinez is not a good outfielder. He can maintain that the defense metrics don't accurately reflect his play as a defender, but most teams -- even if they have a different set of metrics than those publicly available -- are likely to see the same thing. Martinez won't butcher routine fly balls, but he has to be considered a liability. In 2018, he was a minus-5 in 57 games in the outfield; in 2019, that number grew to minus-7 in 38 games. That's one more negative for National League teams, who, of course, would have no choice but to deploy him in the outfield for all but a handful of games every year. Given the additional emphasis teams are placing on defense, that's not very likely at all.
- If Martinez has to market himself as a DH, that limits him to AL teams only, many of which no longer see the wisdom of paying huge money for someone who doesn't contribute in the field. Even those who have the resources to spend that much money on a single DH may want to spend that money elsewhere and use the DH to rotate through positional various positional players. Those that might be willing to spend (the Yankees, Astros to name two) have several veterans on their roster who could get the DH at-bats. Tampa Bay could use Martinez, but won't pay anywhere near the going rate. The Angels? They have both Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols. One team that could make some sense would be Texas, which is moving into a new ballpark and presumably will want to make a big splash. But even there, the Rangers would be better off pursuing more starting pitching over a slugger -- even one as consistently good as Martinez.
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