Bedard: 3 things you need to know about the Bills - It will all come down to Josh Allen

After watching some Bills (3-0) film, here are the three things you need to know, a few video clips and our pick for the game.

1. The Bills will sink or swim based on QB Josh Allen.

I know this isn't rocket science or great insight since most teams, including the Patriots can say that, but it's the truth. This is a good, solid football team ... outside of the quarterback. The defense is very good, fast and smart. The offensive line is OK. The plans on both sides of the ball, from offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and defensive Leslie Frazier, are well thought out and malleable depending on the opponent and the game situation. They have speed at the skill positions on offense, and the running backs are solid.

And then there's Allen, the seventh overall pick in the 2018 draft. He's big (6-5), fast and is a very good overall athlete. He can throw it a mile, and he's got great feet. His accuracy is up this season (64 percent from 53 percent), but that's mostly because of the weak opponents so far (Jets, Giants, Bengals). The most true stat for Allen: he's thrown 3 TDs and 3 INTs this season, and is now 13-15 for his 15-game career. That's just who he is.

Allen reminds me a lot of a combination of Cam Newton (Bills head coach Sean McDermott was the longtime DC in Carolina) without the playmaking ability, and Ryan Tannehill. All three are better athletes than quarterbacks. None of them are good presnap and don't have a good feel for the pocket or throwing with anticipation if the defined route is shutdown.

Allen misses a lot on the field, from blitzers to open receivers. He's incapable of sorting through multiple progressions, and most of his big plays will come off scrambles or throwing on the run. He'll make tremendous daring throws, and he'll also make some really dumb decisions.

It's too bad: the Bills have some legit weapons. John Brown, Zay Jones and Cole Beasley are a good starting group. Andre Roberts and Isaiah McKenzie can fly. TE Dawson Knox is very fast as a move TE. They just don't see the ball enough.

The Patriots' gameplan will be clear and obvious: stop the run, keep Allen in the pocket and make him beat you from there. The odds are strong he can't do it.

2. The Bills will test the Patriots' run defense.

If you still have concerns about the Patriots' rush defense, which struggled most of last season, we'll get an accurate reading in this game. I haven't seen a run game this varied — they do all the college stuff, plus dressed up versions of the counter trey, old Packers sweep — since the 2015 Panthers, which I wrote about for Sports Illustrated before that Super Bowl. Daboll must have just lifted the Panthers' playbook.

The problem is, that Panthers offensive line was way better than this Bills group. I can see now why the Bills made C Russ Bodine expendable to the Patriots — he's too slow to run a lot of these plays. Mitch Morse is a much better athlete and they run him all over the place, just like the Panthers did with Ryan Kalil.

The Patriots are really good at linebacker across the board, but they will be tested by this.


3. Tom Brady will get fooled a few times.

This is a very good defense, and it's rare (for the AFC East) that they've been together for a while. Their comfort level with each other and the scheme is obvious and it allows them to play fast. They aren't a very confusing lot, but they will sugar the gaps with the linebacker with multiple people in the box, and the Patriots will have to sort out who's coming and who's dropping into coverage. The Bills will also show man coverage, and convert to zone after the snap, and vice versa. Brady's pretty good at sorting that stuff out, but the Bills will get him a few times. Should be a great chess match.

It will be very important that players like Josh Gordon, the tight end and Jakobi Meyers to make the right sight adjustments or there could be some issues.

DTs Ed Oliver and Star Lotulelei lock down the middle of the line. MLB Tremaine Edmunds is a tremendous player but we'll see how much he gets fooled by run action. CB Tre'Davious White is excellent, and Kevin Johson is making a comeback from his struggles with the Texans. Safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are one of the best duos in the league.

The Patriots are going to have to grind this game out offensively if the defense isn't handing them points or short fields.

PICK

Line: Patriots -7. O/U: 42.5. Season: (3-0, 2-1 ATS)

This great Patriots defense will have zero problem keeping Allen in the pocket, and that will lead to at least two interceptions. Offensively, the Patriots will do just enough.

Patriots 27, Bills 13.