For a 22-year-old defenseman that thrived in his first taste of postseason play in 2019, Brandon Carlo had quite a few things working against him when it came time to negotiate his first big pay raise as a member of the Boston Bruins.
Of course, as a restricted free agent, Carlo’s options were limited this summer — with Boston and its $14 million in cap space holding most of the cards when it came to determining the blue liner’s value following his third season in the NHL.
There’s plenty to like in Carlo’s game, with the 6-foot-5 skater serving as a key cog on a B’s defense than ranked third in the league last season in goals allowed per game at 2.58.
A workhorse (20:55 ATOI) that also logged the second-most minutes on the penalty kill (2:47 ATOI), Carlo projects as a reliable, stay-at-home defenseman that can serve effectively in a top-four role for the next decade, it not more.
That’s great news for the Bruins. But not too great for Carlo’s bank account — at least when comparing his new haul to what other young blueliners are commanding out on the FA market.
Fair or not, Carlo’s value during contract negotiations could not reach the same tier as players like Charlie McAvoy, Ivan Provorov or Zach Werenski — due in large part to his profile as a defense-first D-man that often defers in the O-zone.
Now, signing the fine print on a two-year, $5.7 million contract is still a nice coup for Carlo, no doubt. But Don Sweeney himself noted how difficult it can be for a prototypical defenseman to really cash in when they’re due for raises.
“There’s a little more subjectivity involved with this deal,” Sweeney said of Carlo’s contract. “I think you have to acknowledge his representatives did a really good job — not that I wasn’t aware of his value to us as an organization and a team. It has to be acknowledged and I think it’s reflected in our approach to where this deal ended up. Sometimes there’s a more linear path for players offensively that put up similar numbers and such. But I don’t think you can underscore the value of what Brandon brings both as a leader and to our hockey club overall.”
Carlo certainly doesn’t need to be an offensive dynamo from the blue line, especially with players like Torey Krug, Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk rounding out Boston's D corps.
As such, Carlo only notched two goals and 10 total points over 72 total games last season, with the defenseman ranking 85th out of 87 NHL defenseman that logged 1,200 5v5 minutes last year when it came to 5v5 points per 60 minutes of play (0.33).
Now, there stands a chance that Carlo could make strides in his offensive game, which could set him in line for an even bigger payday down the road. After all, among that 87-player pool, Carlo did rank 31st overall in terms of individual shots for per 60 minutes at 4.97.
And when it comes to shot attempts per 60, Carlo found himself in the 36th percentile among all NHLers. Not great, by any means, but an improvement over where he was back in 2016-17 as a rookie, stuck in the 21st percentile.
“As I want to continue to progress, I’ve talked to Butchy, Sweens, different people and the offensive side of my game I feel like I can get up in the rush a little bit more and contribute and I think with confidence I’ll recognize that more on the ice,” Carlo said.
Sweeney added: “I do believe that he acknowledges the offensive exploration of his game and the confidence as a result of that. We put him in some situations last year, there’s all kinds of open ice that he can take advantage of — 4-on-4 and 3-on-3 — it’s not just from a pure shutdown.”
There is some room to grow when it comes to Carlo’s overall game, but let’s also be realistic — Carlo is not going to be the type of defenseman that is suddenly going to be chipping in 25-30 points a season as he continues to progress in his career.
And even if he’s not cracking the five-goal plateau next year or the year after, Carlo still projects to bring tremendous value to this Bruins club, especially when factoring in his new contract.
“I don’t think you can put a ceiling on what he’s capable of doing,” Sweeney said of Carlo. “But he also has to live to his own ideals of what he does really well. And obviously, shutting down and taking responsibility to end games, to close out games, to protect teammates, to block shots, to do the things that other players might not be willing to do, he does really well.
"And then allowing his game to continue to grow offensively, he plays with a player in Torey that moves the puck really well and he’s gaining confidence as a result of that. He played with Zee the first year, he played against the top players in the league and that’s a steep learning curve. The success he’s had is what he’s earned, and he’ll continue to grow from that."
If we were to look at those 87 defensemen once again but flip the numbers to focus on defensive impact, Carlo stood as one of the most effective players last year when it came to eliminating quality looks in a team's own zone.
5v5 shots against per 60 minutes? Carlo ranked 8th overall with a rate of 27.38.
5v5 shot attempts against per 60 minutes? Carlo ranked 4th overall with a rate of 49.17.
5v5 goals against per 60 minutes? Carlo ranked 1st overall with a rate of 1.48.
That's awfully impressive, and given the fact that Carlo's entry-defense metrics have also risen since he first broke into the league, the 22-year-old is molding into a dominant, shutdown option for the Bruins.
(Along with his dominant play in Boston's own zone, Carlo has gotten better and better when it comes to preventing the opposition from even getting past the blue line.)
All this is pretty damn nifty for a guy that is only commanding a $2.85 million cap hit in each of the next two seasons.
The Bruins already have Carlo locked in for great value in 2019-20. If he continues to play to his strengths in the D zone, it could be an outright steal in short order — offense or no offense.
OTHER NOTES
Here are the lines from Wednesday's pair of practices at Warrior Ice Arena:
GROUP A:
Blidh/Koppanen-Kuraly-Backes
DeBrusk-Studnicka-Kuhlman
Cehlarik-Gaunce-Lantosi
Lauko-Shen/Asselin-Fitzgerald
Lauzon-Clifton
Zech-Didier
Vaakanainen/Sherman-Petrovic
Halak
Lagace
GROUP B:
Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak
Carey-Krejci-Ritchie
Bjork-Coyle-Heinen
Nordstrom-Lindholm-Wagner
Frederic-Steen
Chara-McAvoy
Krug-Carlo
Grzelcyk-Zboril
Breen-Kampfer
Rask
Keyser
The most notable takeaway from practice — aside from the return of Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo to the ice with the rest of the roster — was Patrice Bergeron’s status, as the center was a full participant for the first time in camp.
Skating alongside his regular linemates in Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak, Bergeron shed the red, non-contact sweater that he had to don on Monday. Last week, Bergeron skated ahead of the main group due to a lingering groin injury.
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Zdeno Chara made an appearance at the grand opening of Tom Brady’s new TB12 store on Boylston Street Tuesday night, with the pair of 42-year-old athletes posing together for a photo out on the red carpet.
“It was very nice,” Chara said of the appearance on Wednesday. “Very nice store. Very nice gesture to get the invitation. Very much appreciated. Such a class act. It’s a very beautiful location, very nice facility.”
?BRADY AND CHARA
Here's a great shot of two 40+year-old legends - #Patriots QB @TomBrady & #Bruins Captain Zdeno Chara posing for photos together at Grand Opening of the flagship @TB12sports Performance & Recovery Center in the Back Bay. #WBZ #TomBrady #Brady #Chara #PatsNation pic.twitter.com/D4eO8z9kJI
— Scott Sullivan (@SliceOfSully) September 18, 2019
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, Corsica, Corey Sznajder, Sean Tierney and HockeyViz.