With the dog days of the NHL offseason now upon us, we’re going to spend the next couple of weeks taking a deeper dive at a number of players on the Bruins’ roster (or on the cusp of a roster spot) who could make a major impact on the club’s hopes of putting together another Cup run.
Here are our previous breakdowns of B’s players this summer:
Part 1: F Danton Heinen
Part 2: F Peter Cehlarik
Part 3: F Charlie Coyle
Part 4: F Anders Bjork
Part 5: F Zach Senyshyn
Part 6: D Urho Vaakanainen
Part 7: F Sean Kuraly
Part 8: F Karson Kuhlman
Next up, let’s take a look at one of the Bruins’ top question marks this season — both on the ice and in terms of the cap — in David Backes.
Player: David Backes
Age: 35 (turns 36 on May 1)
Position: Forward
Height/Weight: 6-foot-3 / 215 pounds
2018-19 Stats: 70 games played – 7 goals, 13 assists, 13:02 ATOI
Season In Review: Given what has already been a tumultuous tenure in Boston, it’s certainly saying something that the 2018-19 campaign was far and away the toughest season of Backes' impressive NHL career.
A year removed from a 2017-18 season in which Backes suffered through a bout of diverticulitis, colon surgery, a skate blade to the leg and more ailments that limited him to just 57 games, the veteran rebounded by appearing in 70 games in what was his third go-around in Boston.
But the end result for Backes proved to be more painful than what any broken bone or surgery could bring, as the veteran was scratched for the final three games of the Stanley Cup Final — forced to watch from high above the TD Garden ice as the club he captained for five years, the St. Louis Blues, captured their first championship.
It was a heartbreaking end for Backes, but one that served as the culmination to a frustrating season for all parties involved.
Relegated to a bottom-six role for most of the year, Backes primarily spent most of his 5v5 minutes alongside fourth-line groupings featuring Joakim Nordstrom and Noel Acciari (107 minutes together), as well as Chris Wagner and Sean Kuraly (100 minutes together). But as a whole, Backes was often a man without a line, forming part of 17 different forward combinations that logged at least 10 minutes of 5v5 TOI together during the regular season — while eventually getting tabbed as a healthy scratch for the first time in 12 years back in January.
Limited to just seven goals and 20 total points last year and with plenty of new additions/younger players poised to sap away his minutes, the writing seems to be on the wall that Backes’ time with the B’s — at least as an everyday contributor — is in the past.
“We didn’t get there, at least in our meetings,” Backes said back in June about his future with the club. “I don’t know what that looks like. Probably have a better answer for you when I have more control of my future. But I’m in flux at the moment and I guess I gotta trust in the bigger plan and that’s kind of where I’m at.”
Of course, the biggest question when it comes to Backes’ future in Boston lies in his contract, which will pay the veteran $6 million over each of the next two seasons.
We’ve already gone over the multiple scenarios when it comes to jettisoning that contract time after time this summer, so we won’t dive any deeper than saying, well — a buyout isn’t going to happen (with the club on the hook for 5,666,667 million this season), while a trade to offload that money would come at a pretty hefty cost.
While the Bruins and their roughly $8 million in cap space could really use that extra $6 million to lock up Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo to new contracts, what scenarios could play out if Boston opts to keep Backes for at least another season?
BSJ Analysis:
If the Bruins — unable to find a trade partner and opting to hold off on a buyout that would do little to solve the team's cap woes — do indeed go into the 2019-20 season with Backes on the roster, finding a suitable role for the 35-year-old forward would be another headache for Bruce Cassidy and his staff, both due to Backes' own drop in production and the influx of young talent poised to compete for bottom-six roles.
It's been a mainstay of this summer series of articles, so let's once again reference our handy dandy depth chart for the upcoming season:
While Backes is currently slotted into the third line alongside Charlie Coyle and Danton Heinen, it wouldn't come as much of a surprise if Boston opts to replace him in such a role with a younger player with a much higher ceiling such as Anders Bjork or Oskar Steen — one of the early favorites to crack the NHL roster with a strong camp. Add in newcomers via free agency such as power forward Brett Ritchie and Par Lindholm, and even if top-flight prospects like Jack Studnicka are not ready to make the jump up to the NHL quite yet, there still doesn't seem to be much room for Backes to operate with this winter.
Along with his drop in scoring and minutes last year, Backes struggles to provide on-ice value elsewhere beyond serving as a big, physical presence that could occasionally be inserted into the lineup to add a bit more snarl to the roster.
As seen below, Boston's excess shot rates were clearly down when Backes was on the ice as opposed to when he was off, especially in Grade-A spots near the crease and in the slot.
If there were one or two lineup combinations that Backes did thrive in, it was serving on a checking line with the likes of Wagner, Kuraly, Nordstrom and Acciari.
Nordstrom-Acciari-Backes: 107 minutes of 5v5 TOI together — 5 5v5 goals scored / 2 goals against - Bruins held a 90-73 edge in shot attempts (55.21 CF%) & a plus-13 shot differential
Wagner-Kuraly-Backes: 100 minutes of 5v5 TOI together — 2 5v5 goals scored / 1 goal against — Bruins held a 109-75 edge in shot attempts (59.24 CF%) & a plus-22 shot differential
In terms of possessing the puck as a fourth line (while usually matched up against top-six forwards), these numbers are pretty encouraging — something that Don Sweeney noted when asked back in June about Backes' future with the organization.
"I thought he best fit in with, Kuraly, Acciari, Nordstrom, in that type of role," Sweeney said. "At the end of the day, when Wagner, Acciari were all healthy, there was competition for those spots, so sometimes he was in there, sometimes he wasn’t. So, that’s where I see his best contribution to the team. At times he can move up in the lineup and give you some grit, a net-front presence, but in general, that’s where he played his best hockey for us. So, we’ll have to see how it all shakes out. Like I said, who else is in there, in that role, that he’ll have to be out for a minute."
So as a rotating cog that can slot himself into the fourth line when needed, Backes does have some value — but at the cost of $6 million per year, that's a tough deal for Boston. When you add in that Backes' value on special teams (0:10 of ATOI on the penalty kill) pales in comparison to other fourth-liners like Nordstrom, Kuraly and Wagner, then it would seem like Backes would be hard-pressed to earn regular minutes, especially if other players like Ritchie, Bjork and more pull their weight in the competition for a third-line role.
The other option would be to stash Backes down in Providence, where the Bruins would only save a little over $1 million in cap space. That seems like the worst-case scenario for Backes, nor would it be an ideal situation for the club — given the veteran's standing in the locker room.
But if Boston is unable to get that contract off the books by way of another team, the options are very limited — and none are all that appealing for both parties.
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, Corsica, Sean Tierney and HockeyViz.
