Examining lineup possibilities: Should Celtics bring Marcus Smart off the bench?

The Celtics have overhauled their roster for the second time in three offseasons this summer, bringing aboard nine new players for Brad Stevens to work with in the aftermath of a disappointing 2018-19 campaign.

Four of the team’s six returning players will be key pieces of the team’s rotation, but there won’t be room for all of them in the starting five this year. Just like last year, Stevens is going to have a tough decision on his hands with this starting group, and it’s evident the wrong choice can have a detrimental effect on a team as evidenced by last year's 10-10 start in the midst of a dysfunctional season.

While a lot of the drama may be out the door next season with Kyrie Irving and Terry Rozier gone, the team’s margin of error will be thin for this group — as its best two defensive bigs departed.

There are a few names that seem like locks for the new-look starting five heading into September. Kemba Walker will start. Jayson Tatum feels like a lock. Enes Kanter is sure to get first crack at the starting spot after signing for a discount this offseason. After that? There are two remaining open spots for three candidates: Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward.

Over the coming weeks, we’ll take a closer look at each of the possible combinations that Stevens could use within that trio to get a sense of what direction the team is leaning.

The NO-SMART STARTING LINEUP

PG: Kemba Walker
SG: Jaylen Brown
SF: Gordon Hayward
PF: Jayson Tatum
C: Enes Kanter

POTENTIAL POSITIVES

Stevens gets his favorite sixth man back: Two years ago, Smart volunteered to come off the bench. Last season, an injury to Jaylen Brown and a 10-10 start to the year pressed Smart back into the starting fold as an off-guard next to Irving. Now, with Rozier no longer in the fold, there is a big opening at backup point guard. Brad Wanamaker could take over that role but with the second unit full of fresh faces and inexperience, Smart could be the glue that holds everything together with that new group. He could run the offense flanked by Edwards or Langford or Wanamaker in the backcourt, while a defensive-minded frontline takes hold thanks to Grant Williams/Semi Ojeleye at power forward and one of Poirier/Theis/Robert Williams at center. Stevens has always liked playing bench units together for a few minutes per games and this unit could be a throwback to the Celtics scrappy group from two years ago that won short stints against other second units with defense. Smart’s versatility and experience captaining this group would have some massive appeal from that standpoint.

Highest offensive upside: This group of wings did not mesh particularly well at the start of last season but with a fresh guard running the show in Walker, the fit could be much better on offense this time around. Brown/Hayward/Tatum definitely provides maximum spacing around Walker at the 2-4 spots, providing a mix of shooting and shot creation at each position on the floor. With Kanter’s willingness to run the floor, screen and crash the offensive glass hard, this is the type of lineup that could create the type of pace and space that Stevens envisioned throughout last year. A lot will depend on Hayward’s health, Brown's shooting and Tatum’s shot selection but there is enough talent within this group to make this a top-5 offense if everyone plays to their potential.

Keeping Jaylen Brown happy in a contract year: This should not be a huge consideration given the fact that Brown is a restricted free agent but there is no question that he was one of the main guys to sacrifice last season amid the dysfunction. His minutes took a hit after November and did not bounce back much despite his steady improvement as the year went on. With a clean slate now in place for 2019-20, giving Brown a chance to succeed next to his new All-Star point guard may be a smart choice. He can use his size and athleticism to take some pressure off Walker on the defensive end and get back to the consistency he showed during his sophomore season.

POTENTIAL NEGATIVES

Starters could use Smart’s defense: With Horford and Baynes out the door, and a weak link in place at the center spot to replace them with the starters, there is going to be a lot of pressure on the rest of this starting group to pick up the slack on defense. Walker works harder than Irving on defense but his size is always going to be picked on in spots by opponents. The wings can all be above average on defense at their best but let’s just say I’d feel a lot better about this group getting stops consistently against elite offenses with the All-NBA first defense guard in the fold. Coming off the bench for Smart would be a strategic choice/luxury by Stevens but it’s also a tough hit for the guard coming off his career year. Whether or not this starting group can survive big minutes without him is a fair question to ask.

Does bench have enough scoring punch? While it’s safe to assume at least one starter will see the floor with the second unit during most stints, a lack of a proven shot creator with this group is a bit scary. Smart is the only player that has averaged more than 10 points per game in a season at the NBA level and he’s going to be surrounded by a combination of four rookies, Theis, Williams, Ojeleye and Wanamaker whenever he plays with just the bench. There will be plenty of mixing and matching within this group but balancing out the firepower between the two units may be a smarter choice since Smart is at his best when he’s trying to distribute instead of creating for himself. Perhaps a couple of the rookies (Edwards, Langford, Williams) will surprise with their offensive contributions, but that might not be enough to keep this group afloat on offense.

Are Brown/Hayward/Tatum the right mix? The results weren’t pretty last season early on and the fact that Stevens stayed away from the original starting five even as Hayward got healthier may have been telling as the season continued. However, a change to a strong rebounder at the five (Kanter in place of Horford) may help this trio function better on the wing. Tatum/Brown/Hayward actually had a positive net rating (+5.9) in the 385 minutes they played together in 2018-19 with elite numbers on the defensive end. That defense might be tough to recreate with Kanter on the back line but his presence in the paint may balance the floor better on the offensive end. Whether or not Stevens wants to spend time to find out whether this group can mesh together better as starters the second time around is the bigger question.

Will we see it opening night?

After last year’s painful campaign, Smart (and anyone else) should be willing to come off the bench for the sake of winning. While this would not be my choice as an ideal starting five, it might be the odds-on favorite out of the gate based on Stevens' track record. The offensive upside is tantalizing and Stevens loves the energy and versatility that Smart can bring off the bench. Whether or not the Celtics can afford to wait six minutes each half to bring in their best defensive player is a tough question to answer but it’s probably the choice that Stevens prefers if he believes the rest of this lineup meshes. That’s something we will find out during training camp next month.