We'll get to a few surprising things we've seen out of the safety group so far in training camp and what that might mean, and we'll take a quick camp spin around the AFC East to see what's up with the divisional rivals but, first, we'll start with an annual preseason reaching tradition:
PATRIOTS NOT AFC FAVORITE, ACCORDING TO FOOTBALLOUTSIDERS.COM
One of my must-reads prior to each NFL season is the almanac put out by the good folks over at FootballOutsiders.com. I always learn something, especially about the Patriots. A few nuggets you might find interesting:
- New England is tied with the Chargers for highest amount of average wins (10.2) behind the Saints (10.3). Patriots lead with a 72.2 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- Saints and Chargers lead the Patriots in odds to make the Super Bowl. Saints (12.5) lead the Chargers (10.5) and Patriots (9.2) in percentage chance to win the Super Bowl.
- New England is predicted to have the fifth-best DVOA overall, fifth in offense, 17th in defense and 2nd in special teams.
- Patriots have the easiest schedule in the league.
Signs of age were visible all across Brady’s statistics last season. He finished with his lowest DYAR (1,034) and DVOA (15.4 percent) since 2013. He ranked seventh in the NFL in DVOA, his lowest finish since 2013, and ninth in DYAR, his lowest finish since way back in 2003. In a season when passing statistics around the league dramatically increased, Brady posted his lowest QBR (68.8) since 2015, his lowest passer rating (97.7) since 2014, his lowest touchdown total (29) and rate (5.1 percent) since 2013, his highest interception rate (1.9 percent) since 2011, his lowest yards per attempt (7.6) since 2015 and yards per completion (11.6) since 2014. Pick just about any other meaningful metric, and Brady posted his lowest figure of the last three to seven years.
- I love this part every year: "The total quality of an NFL team is four parts offense, three parts defense, and one part special teams. There are three units on a football team, but they are not of equal importance. Work by Chase Stuart, Neil Paine, and Brian Burke suggests a split between offense and defense of roughly 58-42, without considering special teams. Our research suggests that special teams contribute about 13 percent to total performance; if you measure the remaining 87 percent with a 58-42 ratio, you get roughly 4:3:1. When we compare the range of offense, defense, and special teams DVOA ratings, we get the same results, with the best and worst offenses roughly 130 percent stronger than the best and worst defenses, and roughly four times stronger than the best and worst special teams."
- "Joe Thuney’s 280 snaps per blown block ranked third among all qualifying linemen."
- "The 2018 Patriots pass rush had both the team’s lowest adjusted sack rate (5.0 percent) and its lowest rank (30) in the history of the statistic. However, they did rank No. 6 in pressure rate on pass plays, and No. 2 in third-down pressure rate. This is very unusual."
- Buffalo Bills: QB Josh Allen and WR Cole Beasley haven't gotten off to the greatest of starts in camp, but they've been seen talking and working a lot between drills. How long until Beasley figures out that Allen just isn't good or accurate?
- Miami Dolphins: Old friend Eric Rowe has been working as the first-team boundary cornerback opposite Xavien Howard. ... Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the starter over Josh Rosen at QB.
- New York Jets: New defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is bringing different tactics every day. In one practice, he took away WR Robby Anderson with coverage. "I haven’t experienced this much variety of things that Gregg does, whether it’s pressure, coverage, types of coverage that he does, the disguises he does,” coach Adam Gase told reporters. “And the guys – we’re not having busts on defense. You don’t see guys just running wide open. They’re executing what he’s asking them to do. There will be minor details that need to get corrected, but I’ve never experienced it where we’re seeing as much as what we do this early. And it’s good for our guys because our guys need to see it all. (During the regular season), every week’s a different deal for us.”