Bradley Beal's decision on extension offer is worth watching

Logically, the next star to hit the trade market in the next 12 months is expected to be the Wizards’ Bradley Beal. Washington is in the midst of a rebuild with a roster full of bad contracts and John Wall expected to miss the upcoming season as he recovers from heel surgery.

Beal is in a similar situation to Paul Pierce during the mid-2000s in Boston, a very good player on a bad team. New Wizards general manager Tommy Sheppard has made it clear that he wants Beal to be a part of the team’s rebuild, a realistic goal for the franchise with Beal being just 26 and having two years left on his bargain contract.

However, Friday marks a pretty important checkpoint for the Wizards franchise in their hopes of retaining Beal over the long haul. Why? It’s the first day they can offer him an extension on his current deal which expires in the summer of 2021.

Unlike the Celtics with Kyrie Irving, the Wizards can actually offer enough in a new deal that Beal should probably consider it if he wanted to stay in Washington. Currently, he’s set to make $27.1 million in 2019-20, and $28.8 million in 2020-21.

Beal’s new extension offer from Washington will begin in 2021 and add three more years to his current deal. A look at the structure:

2021-22: $34.5 million
2022-23: $37.3 million
2023-24: $40 million

Total: Three years, $112 million

The problem for the Wizards is that this contract extension offer is a $10 million dollars less over the three years listed to what Beal’s max would be if he elects to play out his current deal and signs a new deal in 2021. Based on the current salary cap projections, here’s what Beal could sign for in 2021 if he holds off

With his own team (Up to five years):

2021-22: $37.5 million
2022-23: $40.5 million
2023-24: $43.5 million
2024-25: $46.5 million
2025-26: $49.5 million

With a free-agent suitor (Up to four years)

2021-22: $37.5 million
2022-23: $39.4 million
2023-24: $41.3 million
2024-25: $43.1 million

By electing for some long-term security now, Beal would be costing himself roughly $3 million per year compared to a potential max deal a couple of years down the line. A player might be willing to swallow that kind of a discount to play for a contender but the Wizards are far from that at this point.

If Beal turns down this current extension, as is expected, the Wizards would have to think long and hard about starting to explore the trade market for the shooting guard in the next 12 months while Beal’s value remains at its peak. While Washington’s salary books become a lot more clear next summer, there still won’t be close to enough room for a max free agent to pair with Wall and Beal. Wall’s massive deal (over $160 million for next four years) will limit the Wizards’ flexibility for years and there isn’t much young talent on the roster either for Beal to grow with, outside of unproven names like Rui Hachimura and Troy Brown Jr.

Beal may prefer to stick around this year to keep the door open for a maximum possible payday with Washington (he could be eligible for a supermax deal if he makes the All-NBA in one of the next two seasons). However, after the albatross contract that Wall signed, it’s unclear if Washington would even be willing to commit that kind of cash to Beal if he meets the criteria.

For now, Washington will remain publicly committed to Beal since that’s the stance that will benefit them the most from a negotiating standpoint down the line. It also may be the best path for the franchise to build if they can convince him to stomach at least two years of rebuilding in his prime.

However, in a league that is more wide open than ever with a smaller stash of stars available than the past few years, Beal’s situation is one that the Celtics and other organizations will be keeping a close eye on.

Boston would surely prefer that their own talent develops enough to the point where they bring back Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum on max deals if their play next year shows they are worthy of those price tags.

Still, if the Celtics decide they would rather be paying Beal $40 million than Brown $30 million starting in 2021 to maximize their next contending window, they will surely inquire about the sharpshooter, who also is a close friend of Tatum (both St. Louis natives).

Whatever happens this summer with Beal shouldn’t have much of an impact in the interim with Boston, presuming Beal doesn’t sign the extension. He’s not going to ask out yet just six months after stating he wants to retire as a Wizard. The Celtics are not going to shake up the roster they just constructed either heading into 2019-20.

The Wizards’ limited means of improvement makes Beal’s situation one to watch in the coming months. Washington is going to be bad this year and they don’t have the resources to add a big chip via trade or free agency. If Beal decides he isn't going to re-sign in Washington at some point, whether it be in February or next summer, there will be a long list of suitors lining up for him (assuming the Wizards try to get something for him before he walks away for nothing). Whether or not the Celtics are on that list with some of their top assets (Brown, Memphis pick) likely depends on how this upcoming season goes.