NHL Notebook: How a big payday for Jacob Trouba in New York could impact Bruins; Chris Kelly returns & more

One of the dominos in what is still a packed RFA pool fell on Friday evening, as the Rangers brought defenseman Jacob Trouba into the fold by way of a massive seven-year contract with an average annual value (AAV) of $8 million. 

While Trouba — acquired by the Rangers in a deal with the Jets back in June — stands as a key (if not pricey) addition to the Blueshirts in what has been a busy summer for New York, the blue liner’s new contract also could have some ramifications when it comes to the Bruins. Let’s take a look:

A new standard set for top D-men? 

While Trouba certainly cashed in on a massive new contract in New York, you certainly can’t blame the Rangers for throwing the checkbook at Trouba.

After all, what’s not to like? Still just 25 years old, Trouba put together the best season of his young career in 2018-19 with the Jets, posting 50 points over 82 games — with his 42 assists tying him with a blue liner making even more cash in Erik Karlsson. 

Add in the heavy workload that Trouba handles (22:53 ATOI) and his ability to log time on both the power play (2:04 ATOI) and penalty kill (2:28 ATOI), and the Rangers have to at least be satisfied that they’ve locked in a top-pairing defenseman for the foreseeable future. 

Even if Trouba isn’t getting paid as much as other franchise D-men like Karlsson ($11.5 million AAV) or Drew Doughty ($11 million), it’s fair to say that the Rangers’ new deal is at the very least setting the new standard for young defensemen with top-pairing potential, especially with guys like Victor Hedman ($7.85 million AAV) and Aaron Ekblad ($7.5 million AAV) making less than Trouba going forward. 

While the Bruins have largely been able to avoid the market standard when it comes to contracts as of late thanks to the bargains they’ve received from Patrice Bergeron ($6.875 million AAV), David Pastrnak ($6.666 million AAV) and Brad Marchand ($6.125 million), sooner or later they’re going to have to fall in line when it comes to the market price. Most likely, that’s going to come on the blue line, both this offseason with Charlie McAvoy and next summer with a soon-to-be UFA in Torey Krug. 

Trouba is a bit more of a complete player than Krug (who will also be 29 next summer), but it wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if the B’s defenseman snags an AAV upwards of $7 million on the open market, and potentially even more if he builds off of a postseason in which he was much more than just a power-play specialist. 

Still, that proficiency on the man advantage alone is going to lead to a nice raise for Krug, who has averaged 47.6 points over his six full seasons in the NHL — and very well could have been the sixth Bruins defenseman to record 60 points in a season if he wasn’t limited to just 64 games in 2018-19 due to injury (he still finished with 53 points). 

Add in his track record in the postseason (11 goals and 46 total points over 62 games), and the Bruins have to face the reality that if Krug hits the open market, he’s going to make at least $2 million more annually than his current cap hit of $5.25 million. 

The big question mark for the Bruins, however, has to be McAvoy, who could either cash in on a long-term deal or opt for a bridge deal in search of an even bigger haul in three or four years. 

When it comes to player profiles, there’s a lot of similarities between McAvoy and Trouba — a pair of right-shot D with top-pairing capabilities. While an $8 million AAV deal for McAvoy right now seems a bit high, given both his age (21) and the fact that injuries/tenure have only limited him to 117 games in his career, the B’s defenseman’s career trajectory currently has him on the path to either match Trouba’s current payout or exceed it in a few years, with a bridge deal this summer potentially putting him in line for an AAV hovering around $9-10 million by the time 2022-23 rolls around. 

While McAvoy is still coming into his own as a top-pairing defenseman, his numbers when compared to Trouba (sans outright points) are pretty comparable, if not better in some areas — a good sign for a skater four years younger than the Rangers blueliner. 

Let’s take a look at last year’s numbers: 

ATOI:

Trouba: 22:53
McAvoy: 22:10

Corsi-For Percentage: 

Trouba: 50.02% (Jets held a 1,409-1,408 edge in 5v5 shot attempts when Trouba was out on the ice)
McAvoy: 54.71% (Bruins held a 988-818 edge in 5v5 shot attempts when McAvoy was out on the ice)

5v5 shot differential 

Trouba: Minus-24 (Opponents had 786-762 edge in 5v5 SOG when Trouba was out on ice)
McAvoy: Plus-106 (Bruins had 530-424 edge in 5v5 SOG when McAvoy was out on ice)

5v5 Goal Differential 

Trouba: 0 (Jets and opponents each scored 68 5v5 goals when Trouba was out on the ice)
McAvoy: Plus-9 (Bruins outscored opponents, 53-42, when McAvoy was out on the ice)

While McAvoy also had Zdeno Chara logging shifts next to him for most of the year, there’s no doubting the former’s tangible talent — with the gap between him and Trouba smaller than most might expect. With a full 75-80 games in 2019-20, McAvoy could certainly put himself on the path to even more cash than Trouba currently is making now. Given Boston’s current cap constraints and McAvoy’s potential, a bridge deal, for now, might be the best route for both parties, although who knows what the new market standard will be in the near future. 

Rangers stuck in cap crunch

Along with Trouba’s deal potentially impacting the Bruins’ own cap situation, the Rangers are now stuck in quite a rut with their own finances. As constituted, New York is currently over the cap limit of $81.5 million and they still need to deal with their RFAs in Pavel Buchnevich, Brendan Lemieux, Tony DeAngelo and Vinni Lettieri.

(And you thought the Bruins’ cap situation was bad...)

Even without dealing with those four, the Rangers still need to clear out some cash ahead of the start of the regular season. That could involve trading some of those RFAs, buying out a player like Kevin Shattenkirk or perhaps seeing if someone would want a player like Vlad Namestnikov ($4 million AAV) in a deal.

One name in particular that does stand out in terms of a potential cap casualty? Forward Chris Kreider  — who is set to enter the final year of a four-year contract that will pay him $4.625 million this season. 

While Kreider stands as one of the Rangers’ most effective forwards, the writing appears to be on the wall that the Boxford native’s time in New York could be numbered. Along with their current crunch this season, the Rangers likely won’t be able to afford whatever deal Kreider cops next summer in free agency, with a long-term deal around $7 million AAV seeming to be the consensus. Add in the fact that a rebuilding Rangers club could likely get a nice haul back even for one year of Kreider, and all signs seem to point to a trade. 

Trouba’s contract and the bind that it puts the Rangers in, cap-wise, could be good news to a team like the Bruins, who are still in search of a top-six wing this offseason. 

You can’t go wrong with Kreider as a candidate, as the 28-year-old power forward has averaged 21.8 goals per season in his six full years with the Rangers. 

When it comes to Goals Above Replacement — similar to baseball’s WAR in terms of measuring the total amount of goals a player adds to his team relative to a replacement-level player — Kreider could even be a bonafide 30-goal threat with a team like Boston. If we look strictly at even-strength play (an area where Boston struggled for extended stretches during the regular season), Kreider’s even-strength GAR of 14.80 would rank first among all Bruins forwards based on last season.



His 14.20 overall GAR would also rank him fifth overall among Boston forwards last year — behind other top-six skaters in Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and David Krejci.

Of course, trading for Kreider would require dealing away at least a couple of promising prospects or draft capital — while the Bruins would also now need to clear even more cap space to absorb Kreider’s cap hit for the 2019-20 season. But if Kreider’s indeed on the market, expect the Bruins to be right in the mix. 

Chris Kelly returns 

An old friend is set to rejoin the Bruins for next season, as 2011 Stanley Cup champion Chris Kelly will return to Boston to serve as player development coordinator for the club. 

Kelly, who scored 13 postseason points and centered a third line with Michael Ryder and Rich Peverley during Boston’s Cup run in 2011, served as a development coach last season with the Ottawa Senators. During his six-year tenure with the Bruins, Kelly tallied 101 points while also helping Boston get back to the Stanley Cup Final in 2013. 

Even with Kelly’s appointment, Jamie Langenbrunner will continue to help lead the Bruins’ development team, per Steve Conroy of the Boston Herald. 

In addition to Kelly’s hiring, Don Sweeney also announced that Andrew Dickson will join the staff as an amateur scout. Dickson previously served as an NHL amateur scout for the past 11 years with the Detroit Red Wings (2013-2019) and Columbus Blue Jackets (2008-2013).

Lucic on the move

The Oilers ... made a good trade? 

Milan Lucic’s time in Edmonton has come to an end, as the Oilers dealt the power forward in a trade with the Flames in exchange for fellow winger James Neal. 

(The Oilers also retained 12.5% of Lucic’s $6 million annual salary, while they will also send Calgary a third-round pick if Neal scores at least 21 goals and outscores Lucic by 10 or more goals next season.)

While both wingers could use a change of scenery, this seems to be a coup for Edmonton, given the progression of both players. 

While Neal’s lone season in Calgary after signing a five-year, $28.75-million contract was a disaster (seven goals and 19 points over 63 games), his drop in production could be chalked up to a bad situation in Calgary, where he was often relegated to a bottom-six role away from some of the Flames’ big guns up front. 

Prior to this past year, Neal had scored at least 20 goals in all of his 10 full seasons up in the NHL. With top-six minutes likely prescribed in Edmonton, Neal could be in line for a rebound — good news for an Oilers team that only averaged 2.79 goals per game in 2018-19 and only had three players score over 20 goals. 

While Lucic is still a physical presence, it’s rather evident that his overall production has trended downwards over the years, including just 16 total goals over his last two seasons — over the span of 161 games. Not great, especially considering he spent 518 minutes alongside Connor McDavid over those two years. 

Both contracts might be tough, but I give the decisive victory to the Oilers in this deal.