We'll have some Sunday thoughts on Patriots pass receivers, the stupid 18-game proposal and why Bill Belichick isn't just letting Nick Caserio go, but first, we'll start on where things stand in relation to Tom Brady's new contract.
1. As is the case every few months around here, the question inevitably turns to ... hey, when is Tom Brady going to get that contract extension?
Well, it's like I reported on March 12: Most involved are convinced that Brady’s contract can’t be redone until August at the earliest because of the most recent restructure.
Brady was given that ridiculous (incentives ... really?) restructure around Aug. 9 last year. That's about the same time he got a two-year extension the year before. Brady's new contract — he's entering the final year of his deal — will come around that time as well.
2. Do I expect this to be a slam dunk between Brady and Bill Belichick? No, I don't. Brady has basically had to dance for his supper in the last two contracts and that won't change this time around. Belichick does not want to invest heavily in a 42-year-old quarterback. It goes against everything he stands for as a GM. But the Krafts always do Brady's contract with him, and they'll strike a deal. Have to give Brady a lot of credit. A lesser man would tell the Patriots to pound sand and make them put the tag on him next year.
3. I think Miguel hit the nail on the head for this extension back in February. Notice that this gets Brady over Jimmy Garoppolo. I think that's important.
My guess on what will happen is that the Patriots will lower Brady’s cap number from $27 million to $22 million in an extension whose new money APY is $28 million. Jimmy G’s APY is $27.5 million.
Signing Bonus: $30 million
Guaranteed Money: $52 million
Fully Guaranteed At signing: $50 million
New Money Total: $84 million ($99 million over four years)
Contract Length: Three-year extension
Average Per Year: $28 million
I am not that worried about future dead money because I expect Brady to officially retire after June 1 which would allow the Patriots to spread the hit over two years (the year Brady retires and the following year). For example, if Brady were to retire on June 2, 2021, his 2021 dead money will be $7.5 million and his 2022 dead money will be $7.5 million. In 2014 Aaron Hernandez’s dead money was $7.5 million. That amount did not prevent the Patriots from winning the Super Bowl that season. In 2021 the league cap will likely be over 50% higher than it was in 2014.