For years, the Celtics have been among the league leaders when it comes to accumulating draft assets. However, the team’s collection of picks from other franchises is starting to run closer to empty after the 2019 NBA Draft. Boston technically just used two of its three first-round picks for Romeo Langford and Grant Williams last month and managed to leverage its third first-round selection into a 2020 first-round pick from Milwaukee and Carsen Edwards at No. 33 after a pair of trades with Phoenix and Philadelphia.
The early returns on the big draft haul are encouraging after a week of summer league in Las Vegas and that’s without even seeing top pick Langford in action. Edwards and Williams look like candidates to contribute right away off Boston's bench.
However, with the Celtics still walking the line between relying on young talent and veteran star power, it’s evident they are still going to need another big addition to get back to true contender status. The good news? One of their top assets to help them achieve that goal improved in value this offseason: the lightly protected Grizzlies pick (top-6 protected in 2020, unprotected in 2021)
It remains to be seen whether the Celtics will ever use the Memphis pick themselves. Boston held firm with the Kings pick last year until the very end, a move that backfired from a value perspective after Sacramento emerged from a bottom-five projection to a near playoff finish in the West. Boston only managed to snag the No. 14 pick out of it, which certainly hurt when it came to trade negotiations for Anthony Davis.
With the Kings pick in the rearview mirror, Boston’s top remaining non-player asset is the Grizzlies pick and the result of the Memphis offseason to date has only increased the odds that the pick won’t convey in 2020. One look around the Western Conference makes it easy to see why.
Memphis itself didn’t have a bad offseason from a long-term perspective. They are primarily in asset accumulation mode, picking up first-round picks from Utah (Mike Conley trade), Golden State (Andre Iguodala). They added a couple young players on solid value contracts in Tyus Jones and Jonas Valanciunas, while adding Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke in the draft.
There is some potential for growth under new head coach Taylor Jenkins (former assistant with Milwaukee) but it’s still safe to project that this team will be one of the six worst teams in the league.
A look at the depth chart better explains why:
PG: Ja Morant, Tyus Jones, De’Anthony Melton
SG: Dillon Brooks, Grayson Allen
SF: Josh Jackson, Bruno Caboclo, Solomon Hill, Yuta Watanabe (two-way), Andre Iguodala
PF: Jaren Jackson Jr., Kyle Anderson, Jae Crowder, Brandon Clarke, Ivan Rabb
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Dwight Howard (will be bought out), Miles Plumlee
Howard is expected to be bought out. Jae Crowder will surely be shopped to the highest bidder before the trade deadline. The same goes for Iguodala. Outside of that? There’s just not a lot of above-average scoring talent on this team, barring a breakout rookie year by Morant and more growth by Jaren Jackson Jr in year two. Eventually, that duo could be formidable in the West, but it won't happen this year.
A look around the Western Conference lottery teams makes it hard to find more than one team (Phoenix?) that projects to be worse than Memphis.
Sacramento: Added Dewayne Dedmon, Cory Joseph, Trevor Ariza and Richaun Holmes while maintaining all core young pieces.
LA Lakers: Added Anthony Davis, Danny Green, DeMarcus Cousins and Avery Bradley among others.
Minnesota: Bolstered frontcourt with Noah Vonleh and Jordan Bell. Expected to get a healthy Jeff Teague and Robert Covington back into the lineup.
New Orleans: Brought aboard Zion Williamson, Derrick Favors, JJ Redick and some other promising young draft talent (Nickel Alexander-Walker, Jaxson Hayes) to the mix.
Dallas: Picked up Delon Wright, Seth Curry and added a fully healthy Kristaps Porzingis to the fold.
Even the Suns should be better despite an underwhelming offseason with overpays for Ricky Rubio and Frank Kaminsky. They also added Dario Saric on draft night as well they moved down to pick up Cam Johnson. I'd still peg them to be bottom-two in the West.
Outside of Phoenix, it’s nearly impossible to make the case any of these rosters should be better than Memphis. And while the Thunder have started a teardown, there is still enough talent leftover for them to be competitive with Danilo Gallinari, Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and veteran parts like Steven Adams and Dennis Schroder. That’s not a playoff team by any means but it’s still better than Memphis. Paul could be dealt before the season begins but the Heat will send make some passable talent for him on bad deals.
Looking towards the East, there are no clear cut tankers in the mix beyond Charlotte and Washington. The Cavs will still be in the mix at the bottom of the league but have a new head coach in John Beilein and young talent in the backcourt with Darius Garland. The Knicks added enough veteran talent to sniff above 30 wins and the Bulls should be better as well with some good health after bringing aboard Tomas Satoransky and Thaddeus Young.
All of this bodes well for Danny Ainge when it comes to the Memphis pick. Whether the Celtics plan to shop the pick ahead of the trade deadline next February or hope to cash in it with it themselves in 2021, a strong case can be made that it will roll over from 2020 into an unprotected selection in 2021. For that reason, it remains the most valuable non-team owned pick on the open market, according to multiple executives polled in Las Vegas.
The Celtics will need to proceed wisely to leverage the pick's maximum value and avoid a Kings pick situation repeating in 2021. For now, movement around the league this offseason is proving to be helpful on that front.
The new draft lottery odds will create more uncertainty for teams in the middle of the lottery. With four opportunities to move up or down in the lottery process now, it will be crucial for Memphis to finish in the bottom five of the league for the C’s to feel comfortable about the pick rolling over. Here’s a look at the odds of that happening from each position in the lottery order.
No. 1 (0 percent chance of picking below 6)
No. 2 (0 percent)
No. 3 (7 percent)
No. 4 (23 percent)
No. 5 (36 percent)
No. 6 (54 percent)
- Count me among those skeptical of whether the Rockets will be much better after acquiring Russell Westbrook for Chris Paul and two first-round picks (plus pick swaps). Westbrook puts up better stats on paper but his huge contract and questionable playoff track record makes this all-in bet a risky one for Daryl Morey. Perhaps, he thinks he will be okay turning into a secondary piece alongside James Harden but none of his decision making next to Paul George over the past two years in Oklahoma City indicates that mindset is coming.
- The NBA added in-game challenges by coaches, which can be used on called fouls, goaltending, basket interference and out of bounds plays. Thankfully, the league has set up the rule so you must have a timeout in order to make a challenge, which should help prevent needless challenges in the final minute of every close game. I wonder whether coaches will be more hesitant to use timeouts now to keep that challenge option intact.
- Crazy to see Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo wind up together in the Lakers backcourt. I can envision the duo playing together a bit off the bench in a very crowded Lakers rotation. Frank Vogel is going to have a lot of mouths to feed out there.
- Not a lot of appealing names out there for the 15th spot on the Celtics roster, but one worth keeping an eye on from a fit perspective: Jonas Jerebko. The Celtics could certainly use more 3-point shooting at the natural power forward spot.