McAdam: First series of second half will remind Red Sox how far they've fallen

As the Red Sox prepare to resume their heretofore disappointing 2019 season, their opponents in the first series following the All-Star break will provide them with a sober reminder of what's gone wrong.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, the Sox' opponents in the 2018 World Series just 10 months ago, arrive at Fenway with the best record in either league. While the Red Sox study how to get themselves back into playoff contention  -- they'll enter the second half two games behind the second wild-card spot in the American League -- the Dodgers can start printing playoff tickets.

The Dodgers own a massive 13.5-game lead over second-place Arizona in the National League West, a cushion that is the biggest of any division leader in the game. The start of the postseason is better than two and a half months away, but for now, the Dodgers must be considered strong favorites to win their third straight N.L. pennant.



At the very least, a seventh straight N.L. West title appears to be a certainty.

In sharp contrast, the Red Sox face a far less obvious fate. A fourth straight division title, while not mathematically impossible, is highly improbable, given the nine-game deficit they face in relation to the front-running New York Yankees. And even while a wild-card spot is within their grasp, it's far from assured. Moreover, such a path to the postseason guarantees nothing more than a one-game, win-or-go home opportunity.

So, what happened? How did the team which ran roughshod over its opponent last October (total runs: 28-16) come to struggle so much? And how did the vanquished team come to overcome a second straight World Series defeat to dominate its league?

Let's begin, as is always prudent, with pitching.

While the highly-paid Boston rotation has underachieved and ranks only in the middle of A.L. staffs, the Dodgers have compiled the lowest rotation ERA (3.06) in the N.L. and second-best in baseball, behind only Tampa Bay.

Boston's ace Chris Sale (3-8, 4.04) has been thoroughly inconsistent, while the Dodgers' staff leader, Clayton Kershaw, while not necessarily dominant, is 7-2 with a 3.09 ERA. Meanwhile, while only David Price (3.33) has an ERA under 4.00 in the Boston rotation, the Dodgers don't have a single starter with an ERA higher than 3.79.

Tellingly, while the Dodgers starters have logged 536 innings to date (in two more games played), the Red Sox starters have contributed just 465.1 innings. Per game, that translates into a 5.17 inning average for the Sox and 5.83 for the Dodgers.

(Admittedly, comparing teams in different leagues is a trick proposition. Dodger Stadium is known as one of the best pitchers' ballparks in baseball and the N.L. doesn't feature the DH, making for a far easier experience for opposing pitchers).

Another big difference is the current gap between the team's two best position players, both right fielders as it happens. While Mookie Betts has experienced a significant drop-off from his 2018 A.L. MVP season (1.078 OPS in 2018; .859 this season), Cody Bellinger has enjoyed a breakout season with a 1.124 OPS. Bellinger leads MLB in OPS+ and total bases and leads the NL in runs scored. He's the clear favorite to win his league's MVP.

Neither team made radical changes to its roster in the offseason, and the additions that have been made to each have contributed only minimally.

The Red Sox lost free agent infielder Ian Kinsler and relievers Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel, while retaining free agents Steve Pearce and Nathan Eovaldi. Pearce slumped through the first two and a half months before being lost to first, a back injury, and more recently, a knee problem. Eovaldi made four mostly poor starts and has been out since late April with elbow and biceps issues.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, lost free agent catcher Yasmani Grandal while signing Kelly and outfielder A.J. Pollock as free agents. Kelly (5.28 ERA; 1.565 WHIP) has been a massive disappointment and Pollock has missed most of the season after undergoing elbow surgery.

Essentially, then, these are very much the same teams that met on the World Series stage in October. The defections have been slight and the influx of new talent negligible. Rookie Michael Chavis has been a pleasant surprise at second base and first base while the Dodgers welcomed back shortstop Corey Seager, who played only 26 games last year before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Now that the Red Sox' offense has been revitalized (they rank third in runs scored-per-game at the All-Star break), they can only hope that their pitching staff will enjoy a similar turnaround in the second half -- with or without reinforcements from outside the organization.

In the meantime, they'll spend the weekend trying to determine how it is that they've declined so precipitously since the last time they were on the field with their opponents.