NBA free agency doesn't officially kick off until Sunday evening but that has not stopped six players from coming to terms on contracts that are expected to be made official after the league moratorium is lifted on July 6th. Some initial thoughts on these big deals and other developments around the association.
1. Kemba Walker (Celtics): Four years, $141 million: This is most likely the best the Celtics could do with their newfound cap room. It remains to be seen what an undersized point guard will look like at the tail end of his deal at age 32, but for now, Walker is in his prime. He’s also a strong fit for Brad Stevens’ offense, with his inclination to throw up 3s at a high volume and serve as a major threat on and off the ball. The flaws to his game (low efficiency, undersized on defense) should become less glaring with a better supporting cast around him. Given the lack of alternatives on the open market over the next summer, Walker looks like a safer bet for Boston than 2-3 mid-level players that may or may not pan out.
2. Kyrie Irving (Nets): Four years, $141 million: Despite the uncertainty from the likes of Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant on their futures, Irving and the Nets appear to be on the verge of a max deal according to multiple reports. Irving’s addition in Brooklyn will probably spell the end of D’Angelo Russell’s tenure in New York, opening the door to him earning max type deal from several different suitors when free agency opens up. While Irving will be the biggest free agent signing in Brooklyn’s history, it will be fascinating if any other big-name free agents elect to join him in the Big Apple. If not, Brooklyn will probably have trouble rising above the middle of the playoff pack in the East. Either way, Celtics fans will be excited for a chance to boo him a couple of times a year at the Garden.
3. Klay Thompson (Warriors) Five years, $190 million: The only way this negotiation was going to get interesting was if Thompson was eligible for the supermax. Once he fell short of making an All-NBA team (which would have made him eligible for a $220 million deal), then this was an easy choice for the Warriors. The torn ACL carries a little risk but Thompson has been a top-20 player in the league for the past few seasons, especially during playoff time. The Warriors want their dynasty to continue and that involves paying full value to a core piece.
4. Nikola Vucevic (Magic) Four years, $100 million: Orlando will try to build on their first playoff berth in six years by bringing back their sole All-Star, according to a report from Shams Charania of Stadium. The Magic would not have had any serious cap room if they let Vucevic walk so this comes as a relatively easy choice for the franchise. The team finally showed some overdue promise under the guidance of Steve Clifford and with a crowded big man market out there, no one was willing to throw a full max deal at Vucevic it seems. He’s one of the best stretch bigs in the league but the defensive liabilities are present as we saw in the postseason against the Raptors. This deal is fair for all sides though and should keep Orlando in the playoff picture for now in the East.
5. Kristaps Porzingis (Mavs) Five years, $158 million: It was almost a lock for this one to get done after the Mavericks gave up so much for the big man (two first round picks and taking on two bad contracts) at the trade deadline. Dallas gets to start fresh with a young core of Euros between Porzingis and Luka Doncic but I’ll be fascinated to see how well the seven-footer looks after knee surgery. The gamble is worth taking for Dallas for Porzingis at age 23 but it’s also a sizable commitment for a guy who has missed 10 games or more in every season so far of his four-year career.
6. Harrison Barnes (Kings) Four years, $88 million: The swingman opted out of a $25 million player option in order to secure a long-term deal in Sacramento. Barnes was a little bit of a disappointment in Dallas after signing a max deal three years ago. However, the Kings could use a respectable wing to help round out their young backcourt and they have the money to spend to lock him in. With no big names looking to play in Sacramento, this is probably as good as the Kings were going to do at the small forward spot. I doubt this will ever look like a good value contract but the Kings look ready to break their long playoff drought with another smart signing or two this summer.
Other rumored deals
DeWayne Dedmon to Sacramento: The Kings desperately need a big man to help protect the paint and Dedmon shouldn’t break the bank. Some type of deal for $10-15 million annually should lock him up and likely take the Kings out of the running for a potential Al Horford pursuit.
Derrick Rose in Detroit: The Pistons only have mid-level money to spend here and also have a starting point guard making nearly $20 million in Reggie Jackson. The guess here is that deal will be dealt somewhere if Rose is being brought in. After a standout year with the Wolves, he should make the Pistons more enjoyable to watch.
Horford Watch
Despite tampering going on nearly around the clock before the start of NBA free agency, it remains a complete mystery what team has reportedly offered Al Horford a four-year deal worth over $100 million according to multiple reports. The process of elimination for potential suitors is starting to take shape though. The Pelicans are out of the running already according to local beat reporters, while the Kings look to be rumored to be closing in on a deal with Dedmon, something that should take them out of the mix as well for a starting five.
The Mavericks were named as a potential landing spot for the big man last week, but Zach Lowe of ESPN.com reported recently that they will be targeting smaller targets. So what exactly is left for Horford on the open market in terms of suitors? There's not a lot left out there when you consider teams that have sizable cap room and a need. In fact, that brings up to four remaining playoff teams on the board and one team with plenty to spend.
Nets: They will have enough room for near-max money even after Irving is signed. However, they have not been connected to Horford at all and have a starting center in place with Jarrett Allen. Technically, Horford could play next to him but this seems like a backup plan at best for Brooklyn with Durant, Butler and potentially Harris in the team's sights as max free agent No. 2.
Knicks: These guys will have a ton of unused cap room if Durant and Irving leave them high and dry. Horford wants to win though and I can't see the Knicks investing a four-year deal in Horford given his age unless someone else noteworthy was going there with him. This wouldn't make much sense for either side unless a big name is coming with him.
76ers: They won't have any cap room if they re-sign Butler and Harris, but if those guys walk without compensation, the Sixers can open up some serious cap room. Horford, Embiid and Simmons would be a bizarre looking frontline and the Sixers could certainly use some more shot creation in their starting five instead of another big. It's hard to buy this one unless things go very wrong for the Sixers with their other free agent plans. Horford will be a solid backup plan though and could save some wear and tear on Embiid.
Lakers: They have been linked to bigger names like Leonard and D'Angelo Russell but it's been quiet on the Horford front for now. That could change if they miss on their initial targets.
Clippers: Still an obvious destination as a potential wingman to a max free agent like Leonard. Unclear if they would go after the 33-year-old on a long-term deal without another star in place.
Final Thoughts
There is still no obvious fit for Horford among these teams. All of them (except the Knicks) probably have other initial plans that involve signing better players than Horford so perhaps it is just a waiting game for the big man to figure out what team is the odd one out and still has lots of money to spend. Still, part of me thinks this rumored contract was some posturing by his agent. With the Kings, Pelicans and Mavericks reportedly out of the mix, Horford looks to be headed a coast, barring the emergence of a surprise suitor that opens up some big cap room. No matter what, the Celtics will be waiting patiently on his decision in the coming days, in case they can work a beneficial sign-and-trade with his next destination.