Could Celtics realistically pull off a complex sign-and-trade for Kemba Walker?

No one in the world seems to know where Al Horford is going as free agency begins, which has led to speculation that somehow the Celtics might be able to retain the veteran big man or at least stay above the cap while still bringing aboard All-Star guard Kemba Walker.

We visited this scenario last week here at BSJ, but given the uncertainty of Horford’s future at this point in the process, along with a new report from Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com that the C's are discussing a three-team sign-and-trade involving the Nets and Hornets, it is worth a deeper dive into the challenges involved for the Celtics to make it all happen.

How the Celtics could potentially stay above the cap

There is a path to this, but it’s a complicated one since it involves consent from six different parties (three teams and three players) to make it happen. Let’s go through them one-by-one. Here’s how the trade structure would look, as we broke down here at BSJ last week:

Brooklyn gets: Kyrie Irving (four-year max deal), pick(s) from the Celtics
Boston gets: Kemba Walker (four-year max deal)
Charlotte gets: Terry Rozier (starting salary at $12 million at least to make money work), maybe a sweetener

The viewpoint from all sides:

Brooklyn: The Nets are on track to sign Irving with cap room so there is no need for them to get involved in a sign-and-trade without additional compensation. To further complicate matters, they will be helping a division rival they are competing with by taking part in a deal (if it allows Boston to keep Al Horford or use a full mid-level exception). Whether a team will take part in something like this with a rival usually depends on a general manager's appetite for risk (Danny Ainge has never been afraid), but the Nets will be looking for strong value to take part in improving Boston's options.

At minimum, a first round pick will be demanded and perhaps more than that. There is almost certainly a point at which the Nets would do it (two first round picks? three first-round picks?). The Celtics might balk before they hit the Nets asking price though. The Nets would also be hard-capped in this scenario at $138 million, but that shouldn’t be a major issue since they probably weren’t going to spend to that point anyway. They may just jump at a chance to get an extra first round pick or two, even if it strengthens their rival.

Kyrie Irving: He has to agree to be sign-and-traded in order for any deal to go through. It makes no money difference for him to take part, so he would only be doing it to help his future franchise (Brooklyn). If they tell him to do it, he probably will, unless he wants to stick it to Boston.

Boston: If they want to keep Horford or their other free agents with Bird Rights, they have to work a sign-and-trade in order to acquire Walker or dump Gordon Hayward into some other’s team cap room. The latter option feels unlikely due to Hayward’s value, so the sign-and-trade is the only way to proceed here. The Celtics would have to agree to terms with Horford at a price they find fair, knowing that it’s going to cost them at least a first round pick (or two) to retain him. Is keeping Horford worth it if it costs Boston a first round pick and they are paying him more than they prefer? Or is the team better off keeping their picks and signing a cheaper big for mid-level exception or room-level? Finding a sweet spot for Boston's long-term plans will be necessary for any deal to go through.

Kemba Walker: He won’t be an obstacle in this hypothetical. He wants to go to Boston and he’ll get the same money whether it’s a sign-and-trade or outright signing.

Terry Rozier: This is probably the biggest wildcard outside of the Nets in this scenario. His money will be needed to make the salary matching work. If he signs at $12 million or more per year, that’s enough outgoing money for Boston when you include Irving (both Base Year Compensation players) to match Walker’s incoming $32.7 million in a trade. Rozier would have to be willing to be dealt to the Hornets (or another suitor) for that type of money. The Hornets are rumored to have some interest and need a starting point guard, but it’s possible Rozier wants to go elsewhere anyway. There are several non-playoff teams interested in his services so if he wants to sign an offer sheet with another team that has cap room, this plan gets blown up for Boston. The Celtics need Rozier’s cooperation to make this happen, so the price will need to be enticing for Rozier's camp.

Hornets: Their willingness to pay Rozier serves as the only obstacle here. However, the Hornets are over the cap, so the fact that the Celtics can sign Rozier and trade him for over mid-level money serves Charlotte well here. They are unlikely to require much in terms of compensation for taking part in the deal because of that benefit. Demanding more than a second-round pick seems foolish for them since the alternative for Michael Jordan is letting Walker sign elsewhere for nothing and losing out on a replacement point guard possibility.

Where does the Celtics cap room fit in?

The big man would not take part in the sign-and-trade, but the Celtics would be able to operate as an above-the-cap team if they pull off this trade. They would be hard capped (at $138 million) for taking back a player in a sign-and-trade but would still have roughly $31 million per year to work with even after acquiring Walker with their current roster.

Staying over the cap by itself would open the door to a number of useful possibilities in team building. A team over the cap would have the full mid-level exception ($9.2 million) to use for signings instead of just the room-level exception ($4.7 million), which is all a team gets that falls below the salary cap. Additionally, the team would be able to maintain Bird Rights on its own free agents, giving them the ability to sign a guy like Horford or Marcus Morris to a competitive offer if they wanted to. Those guys could also be used in sign-and-trades hypothetically.

Horford obviously walked away from negotiations with the Celtics initially when Kyrie Irving seemed to be headed out the door. Now that Walker is in the mix for Boston, they look like a team that can contend in the East if he’s back. They could also be a top contender in the East next to the Bucks if Kawhi Leonard ends up heading to the Western Conference.

Horford is going to get significant offers elsewhere, but they may not be as favorable as rumored. If the Celtics step up with a big long-term offer (if a sign-and-trade is done), he will certainly listen, but there’s no guarantee the best offer will come from Boston here if the two sides re-engage. The Celtics may just decide that they can get a good big with the mid-level exception and try to keep their cap flexibility in place over the long-term instead of committing to Horford in his mid-30s for a very high number.

Still, it’s hard to deny that the window of opportunity is wide open across the league this year, assuming that a super team is not formed by Leonard with the Lakers. The Celtics have great talent on cheap rookie deals for just one more year, which gives them a chance to load up on other parts of the roster if they see fit. Getting Walker was one part of that process. If they can maintain another core piece in Horford for a price that’s not too prohibitive (in terms of trading picks or a high salary), they may just roll the dice

Either way, operating above the cap for the Celtics is certainly worth paying a future first round pick for. How much more than that is it worth? We should find out in the coming days.