Even before they left for London, the Red Sox had a formidable shopping list for next month's trade deadline.
The bullpen has been atrocious, with 16 blown saves and seven games lost after the eighth inning -- three in which the Sox were tied and four in which they were leading. And while one established high-leverage reliever is an absolute necessity, two are probably needed.
That, however, was before Saturday's news that Brian Johnson was placed on the DL with a non-baseball-related medical matter, detected during a routine medical examination. In a release, the Red Sox projected that Johnson is "expected to resume pitching this year.''
The last bit is somewhat ominous when it comes to a timeline. The wording is such that he won't be back in another 10 days or two weeks. What it suggests is that Johnson won't be on the mound anytime soon.
And that, in turn, complicates matters significantly for the Red Sox. Now, not only do they need at least one premium reliever, but also, a competent back-end starter.
Johnson had only made two starts after missing more than two months with an elbow injury. The first, somewhat predictably, wasn't very good -- an outing in which he lasted just three-plus innings in Baltimore and allowed a run on five hits while leaving baserunners for the bullpen.
The next one was considerably better: a five-inning stint against Toronto in which he allowed a run on four hits.
Obviously, a typical Johnson start might fit somewhere in the middle. But he has the potential to give the Sox five innings while keeping them in games and giving them a chance to win.
That's something at which others on the 2019 staff have failed miserably. Of the four others who have stepped into that fifth spot (Hector Velazquez, Ryan Weber, Josh Smith and Darwinzon Hernandez) have failed miserably. Together, they've combined for 13 starts this season, producing exactly one quality start (Weber in Toronto last month).
Of the four pitchers cited above, it's natural to assume that, for now, the Sox will go with Velazquez for the time being in the rotation spot. What's less clear is what they can reasonably expect from him. In his seven starts, he's produced a 6.41 ERA and a 1.373 WHIP.
But what's really troubling when it comes to Velazquez is the total number of innings he's provided in those seven opportunities: 19.2, or, fewer than three innings per outing. Even allowing for the fact that he wasn't stretched out earlier in the season and Sox intentionally kept his starts short, that hardly inspiring. If Velazquez can't get the Sox into the fifth inning on a consistent basis, the wear-and-tear on the bullpen is only going to continue.
And the last few weeks have demonstrated, all too clearly, what happens when the relievers are overworked.
So while it's tempting to think that just about anyone can step in and give you five or so innings every five innings, the Red Sox have discovered otherwise.
Nathan Eovaldi's throwing program hasn't progressed past simply playing catch and it's now a given that he won't be back in the rotation until August. Even with the upcoming day off Monday, the Sox will need a fifth starter once before the All-Star break. Then, after the break, the Sox will play 17 straight days without a day off. Then, after a break on July 29, they'll embark on a stretch that will see them play 18 games in the span of 17 days.
Presumably, by then, Eovaldi will back and be part of the mix again. But from Tuesday in Toronto until mid-August, the Sox will have that fifth spot pop up at least seven more times.
Already needing to make up ground, the Sox can ill-afford to squander games when that spot turns up. To get on any sort of roll -- where they win, say, 16-of-20 games in order to advance in the standings. they'll need a reliable starter.
To whom can they turn?
Per usual, there will be options. The Mets may be forced to move Zack Wheeler, the Giants are almost certain to make Madison Bumgarner available and the Tigers have let it be known that Matthew Boyd can be had, though the ask from the Yankees of Gleyber Torres signaled to one and all just how expensive the return will be.
Those are all well beyond the Red Sox' means. Their farm system still in rebuild mode, they lack the sort of available top prospects that any of those pitchers would warrant.
Additionally, they wouldn't want to acquire anyone whose contract extends beyond this year, since with their present five starters, the Sox wouldn't want a commitment beyond 2019. This is all about a short-term rental, which in turn, will keep the asking price relatively modest.
Fortunately for the Red Sox, they don't need to shop for such a high-end starter. What they need, simply, is a veteran arm who can keep them in games. In short, they could use someone like Cincinnati Reds righthander Tanner Roark, who can be a free agent after this season.
Roark has made 16 starts for the Reds, and pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark, has a 5-6, 3.36 ERA. He's making $10 million this season, meaning the Sox would have to absorb somewhere between $4-$5 million, depending on when a deal got executed. In the case of Sox, of course, there's a sense of urgency here.
Others who might fit the bill: Baltimore's Andrew Cashner (7-3, 4.37) and St. Louis's Michael Wacha (5-4, 5.30).
None of these, other than potential Roark, profile as perfect solutions. But the news on Johnson makes it imperative that the Sox do something to upgrade their rotation.
Then, they can turn their attention to the real problem area in the bullpen.
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- Traded Chris Sale to the Red Sox and got Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. Kopech, obviously, has missed all of this season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but is still a highly regarded prospect with the stuff to profile as a front-line starter. Presumably, he'll return to that status next year. And Moncada, after struggling to lay off pitches out of the strike zone in his first two season, has made huge strides this year, posting an .871 OPS and a OPS+ of 131.
- Traded Adam Eaton to the Washington Nationals for starters Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning. Giolito has emerged as one of the best young starters in the game (10-2, 2.87). Lopez has taken a big step backward this year (6.12 ERA) after providing 188.2 innings and a respectable 3.91, and presumably, there's talent there to rebound. Meanwhile, Dunning, only 22, is having a fine season at Double-A and could make his debut next season.
- Traded Jose Quintana to the Chicago Cubs for outfielder Eloy Jimenez and three other minor leaguers. Jimenez made his major league debut earlier this season and while he has further development still to go, he's shown terrific promise already with 13 homers and a .478 slugging percentage.
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