McAdam: The mystery of Mookie Betts' strangely disappointing season

With a roster that is largely the same as the one which won the World Series last year, the Red Sox' 2019 first-half disappointment is largely a puzzle.

But not upon closer inspection.

Of the returning position players, just two regulars -- Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez-- are enjoying significantly better seasons than a year ago. A third, Xander Bogaerts, is having another fine season and statistically speaking, is marginally ahead of his breakout season of a year ago.

The rest? Regression abounds. J.D. Martinez has experienced a drop-off at the plate, though he still leads the team in homers.

But the biggest step backward has been taken by Mookie Betts, who easily won the American League MVP award last season and in so doing, thrust himself onto the list of best players in the game.

In 2019, Betts' numbers are decidedly average in comparison to past seasons. He's batting more than 80 points lower than a year ago, when he was the AL batting champion. At his current pace, Betts will fall shy of the 30 homer plateau which he reached in two of his three previous seasons. And his stolen bases are off dramatically with just nine as the schedule inches past the halfway point.

About the only aspect of his game that's remained the same is his ability to get on base and score runs -- two vital components, to be sure. Even then, his better-than-average .379 OBP is off considerably from last year's stratospheric .438 figure.

So, what's wrong?



Betts doesn't appear to be playing with any nagging injuries, though he undoubtedly has had some assorted aches and pains -- hardly uncommon among players.

Here are three potential theories that have contributed to a less-than-stellar first half:

Confidence

For a player who's been voted MVP and finished second another time, Betts strangely seems to lack confidence in himself.

On more than one occasion this season, manager Alex Cora has mentioned that Betts has been down on himself for a failure to produce. Betts said earlier this week that he had to give Betts something of a pep talk after Saturday's loss to Toronto when the outfielder was 0-for-2 with three walks.

"He feels like he wasn't contributing, Cora told WEEI, "and the next day I said, 'Dude, hold on, come here. You got on base three times, you scored from second, you can steal bases, there's ways you can dominate the game.'”

Past coaches, teammates and managers have all noted that Betts is ultra-demanding of himself and tends to demand too much of himself.

David Ortiz, who was a mentor to Betts during the years they were teammates, noted that Betts often can be seen taking batting practice in the team's facility behind the dugout, working tirelessly to improve.

"Mookie doesn't want to just be good -- he wants to be great,'' Ortiz said this past March.

And when Betts doesn't get the results he's searching for, he tends to get down on himself.

"I see it sometimes with his body language,'' said one evalutor. "You notice him walking back to the dugout and he looks defeated.''

"I just feel that this is a kid that, he's searching, he's thinking, and he knows how important he is for us, and he takes it personal,'' echoed Cora to WEEI. "Some guys don't show it, others do, and in his case, when you see him in the dugout by himself, it's not that he's down — he's searching, he's thinking about what I did in that at-bat, where am I, did I swing at a strike, do I need to do this, that's the case."

Baseball is a game of failure, where even the most successful hitter can make an out six or seven times out of 10. The season is long and the inability to produce can wear on a player -- especially those who demand much from themselves.

The contract.

Betts has at least twice rebuffed overtures from the Red Sox on contract extensions, and, on the occasion of Mike Trout signing his record-setting deal this past spring, said his expectation was, without ruling out re-signing with the Red Sox, to explore free agency after the 2020 season.

That's very much his right, of course. Betts and the Red Sox settled on a $20 million salary for 2019, thus avoiding salary arbitration and stands to make close to $30 million in 2020, his final year of arbitration eligibility.

What Betts has done -- no different from many athletes in baseball and other sports -- is to bet on himself. By making himself available to all 30 MLB teams, he increases his leverage and his chances of matching or perhaps even topping Trout's megadeal.

But his strategy is not without some risk.

Betts is essentially already auditioning for free agency now, and his subpar first half could be weighing on him.

Some players perform better with a layer of contractual security. A number of people around the Red Sox -- Cora included -- believe one of the reasons Bogaerts is having such a fine season is, having signed a six-year extension in the opening week of the season, he no longer has the burden of uncertainty, or the attendant fears that an injury could jeopardize his future earning power.

It's impossible to know what's in a pro athlete's head and Betts said nothing to suggest that anxiety over his pending free agency has been a contributor to his play.

But knowing that Betts is demanding of himself and sometimes, against all logic, even lacks for confidence, it wouldn't be the most far-fetched theory.

Lefties are dominating him.

Betts is a dynamic offensive talent, with quick-twitch athleticism and a legitimate claim to being a true five-tool weapon.

A year ago, he perfectly encapsulated Cora's vision for a 21st-century leadoff threat, with the ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark and provide quick leads or to get on base, steal bases and score runs. If Cora initially erred in his decision to drop Betts down to the No. 2 spot -- only to reverse himself and re-install Betts to the top spot three weeks ago, the move back hasn't helped Betts.

He's yet to come close to duplicating his game from a year ago in either of the top two spots in the batting order.

So, what's different?

For one thing, Betts has struggled mightily against lefties. Betts has a woeful .622 OPS (against righties, it's .909) against left-handed pitching and has shown next-to-no pop against them. Of his 13 homers, 12 have come against righties and in 79 at-bats, he's produced just six RBI against lefties.

Significant splits aren't uncommon for even the game's best players, and if Betts had, say, a .750 OPS against lefties, his season as a whole would be significantly better.

Instead, his underperformance against lefties drags down his overall numbers and limits his impact in games.

Lefties weren't a problem a year ago. To the contrary, Betts had a better batting average (.368 against lefties; .339 against righties); higher OBP (.471 to .427); higher slugging percentage (.736 to .610) and higher OPS (1.207 to 1.037).

So, what's different this year? Most obviously, how opposing lefties are attacking him.

"I've seen him get pounded inside a lot more this year,'' said one scout. "It seems like, in the past, the idea was to pitch him away and hope you could get him to chase or induce weak contact. But that didn't work, so now they're busting him in more and he hasn't adjusted yet.''

There's still time, of course, for Betts to make that adjustment and any others. From a statistical standpoint, it's virtually impossible to imagine that he could match last year's numbers even with a strong second half.

But a revitalized Betts -- and perhaps a more confident and mentally relaxed one -- could go a long way in lifting the Red Sox into the thick of the playoff race.