The Celtics did some wheeling and dealing on draft night, making two trades that served a variety purposes as they attempt to put their best step forward for the 2019-20 season. Let’s take a closer look at the steps Danny Ainge and company took heading into free agency and examine an overview of the future of the team’s free agents.
Guaranteed Salaries for 2019-20 season
Gordon Hayward: $32.7 million
Marcus Smart: $12.6 million
Jayson Tatum: $7.8 million
Jaylen Brown: $6.5 million
Guerschon Yabusele: $3.1 million
Robert Williams: $1.9 million
Semi Ojeleye: $1.3 million
Romeo Langford (No. 14 pick): $3.45 million
Grant Williams (No. 22 pick): $2.38 million
Carsen Edwards (No. 33 pick): $897,158
Tremont Waters (No. 51 pick): $897,158
Cap Hold 1: $897,158
Guaranteed money committed: $74.8 million to seven veteran players and four draft slots and a mandatory cap hold.
2019 NBA Salary Cap Projection: $109 million
Luxury Tax Projection: $132 million
Draft pick cap implications
Romeo Langford and Grant Williams: The Celtics will sign both players for 120 percent of their draft slot (the league standard for all draft picks). The total for Langford ($3.45 million) and Williams ($2.37 million) will count against the cap for the same amount no matter when they sign so this will have no bearing on the C's free agency.
Carsen Edwards: The Celtics liked Edwards enough that they were considered him with their one of their first-round picks according to a team source, but they were confident enough that he would be available later. That realization allowed them to pick up an asset in the trade with the Sixers (No. 20 for No. 24 and 33) that ended up turning into Edwards in the second round. In addition to picking up a second pick, they got a side benefit when it comes to creating potential cap room by dumping the No. 20 pick ($2.6 million).
Instead of having that amount count against the cap, they get to slot in a minimum cap hold ($897,158) until Edwards signs (the standard hold for any second round pick). He will likely sign for more than that (probably up to a four-year deal with part of C's cap room) but the Celtics get to open up $1.7 million more under the cap by moving back a few slots in the draft to take him. That was not the impetus of the move by itself, but it serves as a size benefit to give Boston a little more ammo to work with if they want to open up max cap room.
Tremont Waters: Like Edwards, he gets a minimum cap hold and will be in the running for a roster spot depending on how he performs in summer league and training camp. The Celtics were high enough on Waters according to a team source that they had him slotted in the top-30 on their draft board. Whether or not he makes the team or signs a two-way deal eventually, his cap hold will count the same this summer ($897,158).
Current depth chart
PG: Smart, Edwards, Waters (if he makes team)
Wings: Tatum, Hayward, Brown, Langford
Bigs: Grant Williams, Ojeleye, Robert Williams, Yabusele
Frontcourt overview: There is a pretty big hole in the middle after the Baynes trade that will need to be addressed via free agency and trade. It’s easy to see Grant Williams slotting in and taking at least a good chunk of minutes at power forward off the bench and potentially more depending on how well he acclimates right away to the pro game. There’s also a reasonable chance that Tatum ends up starting at the four again, but if that’s the case, the Celtics are going to have to add a more traditional big or above-average rebounder at center to ensure they won’t get demolished on the glass on a nightly basis. Robert Williams will get a chance but he’s going to have to have a big summer to get some consideration for the starting spot. I’d put it as a coin flip on whether Yabusele is on the roster next season at this point.
Backcourt overview: The backcourt is a fascinating situation as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Celtics end up giving Marcus Smart a chance to run the show as a starting point guard after his breakout year but there’s no question that Stevens loves him as an energy guy off the bench too. After earning first-team All-Defense, going back to the bench would be a tough demotion for Smart, so the bet here is that Smart remains in the starting five in some form. He could slide to the shooting guard slot (with Brown staying as a bench weapon) if a top tier point guard is targeted in free agency but this part of this roster is definitely in good shape compared to the frontcourt. Opportunity will be plenty here for Smart, Hayward, Tatum and Brown to soak up big minutes, while Edwards and Langford will get some bench run behind them that will be dependent on how well their game translates to the NBA right away.
Cap Room Scenarios
There have been all kinds of references on social media to how much cap room the Celtics can open up this offseason, but a lot of that depends on which of the team’s own free agents are still part of the plan.
For the purposes of this exercise, we will presume that Al Horford and Kyrie Irving are still planning on moving on. The team may elect to make a modest qualifying offer to Daniel Theis ($1.6 million) but sources have indicated to BostonSportsJournal.com that a return overseas is a possibility for the big man. It’s hard to envision any room in the backcourt for Brad Wanamaker as well after Edwards was drafted since the team is trending younger in the backcourt.
Free agent cap holds
Marcus Morris: $10.2 million
Terry Rozier: $9.1 million
Daniel Theis: $1.6 million
Brad Wanamaker: $1.4 million
What are cap holds?
These are the numbers that are tied to a player’s previous salary when it comes to free agency. Essentially, if the team wants to clear cap room, they need to renounce the cap hold of the player, which eliminates the salary attached to him to the cap. This normally doesn’t happen until it's necessary by the front office since a team loses Bird Rights on a player (the ability to sign him up for any amount they want) if they renounce a cap hold. Essentially, if a player is renounced, there is no chance they will be re-signed.
What kind of salary cap space can the Celtics open up?
Cap room if Celtics maintain cap holds on Marcus Morris and Terry Rozier: $16.7 million
Cap room if Celtics maintain cap hold only on Marcus Morris and no other free agents: $24.9 million
Cap room if Celtics maintain cap hold on only Terry Rozier and renounce all other free agents: $26 million
Cap room if Celtics renounce all of their own free agents: $34.2 million
Overview: It will be incredibly intriguing to see how the team approaches free agency, particularly with Rozier. Morris seems a long shot to stay here due to his age (30) and the fact that he should be highly sought after on the open market after the best season of his career. His cap hold ($10 million) is actually smaller than his expected salary though ($15-20 million per year) so if the C’s decide they are done with Rozier and want to use some cap room on in free agency while keeping Morris, they have the ability to bring in a good player for $25 million. Ainge may ultimately elect to go younger with Morris but he played well enough in the postseason where he should get some consideration if the price is right and the Celtics want to put together a pseudo-contender next year for the East. Morris bought in well to Stevens’ scheme last year and was the only player to overachieve in the postseason. If the team wants to get younger or invest in a max-type name, Morris will be gone.
With Rozier, it is all going to come down to his market. The team positioned itself well to move ahead without him by drafting Edwards and Waters, giving them a scorer and ball handler behind Smart if needed. Ainge and Brad Stevens remain fans of Rozier even after his inflammatory comments after the year ended but the truth is they can probably do a lot better than Rozier on the open market at the guard spot. If he is not going to be happy coming off the bench, then there is no real point in bringing him back since he's not deserving of a starting gig over Smart or Brown. He was a net negative on the court for the majority of last season and his shooting numbers reflected that.
However, if the Celtics are convinced he can regain his form from two years ago in a bigger role off the bench, perhaps they will bury the hatchet. I don’t believe Rozier is going to have a big market for his services in free agency, particularly with several teams in the market for a point guard (Bulls, Suns) drafting point guards with their first-round picks. The Celtics can wait out the market and hope Rozier settles for mid-level type money with them on a short-term deal if his market is weak. They may just elect to move on altogether from him though if they have their sights set on a bigger fish with $34 million in cap room, something that can be achieved if he's renounced.
Unless the Celtics land a big fish in free agency, I’d expect his free agency to drag out like Smart’s did last year. A lot of teams have plenty of money to spend but it’s fair to guess Rozier won’t be high on their lists. There may not be much left over for him when the dust settles, which puts the Celtics in a good spot if they want to retain him on a team friendly deal.
NBA News and Notes
- Keep an eye on the Bucks making a big move in free agency after dumping Tony Snell's contract earlier this week as part of a draft deal. They could just be keeping options open to bring back the majority of their core but it's a possibility they could have enough room to add a bigger name while keeping Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton if they manage to dump Ersan Ilyasova's deal.
- In perhaps the least surprising news of the summer, the Wizards have declined Jabari Parker's $20 million option for next season. They will still maintain his Bird Rights to bring him back but he will be looking at a significant paycut after being wildly overpaid this past season.
- An intriguing buy-low option for the Celtics heading into next year? Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. The Nets declined to make him a qualifying offer last week, which makes the 24-year-old an unrestricted free agent.
- The Suns continue to be one of the more baffling franchises in the association after their draft night moves. First, they dumped a respectable contract (TJ Warren) off the books and needed to attach the No. 32 overall pick to do it. That would have made sense if they were set on opening cap room but hours later they decided to take on Aron Baynes $5.4-million contract in a deal with the Celtics in which first-round picks were swapped. Baynes should be a good mentor to DeAndre Ayton but is a confusing use of cap room after an asset was used to dump Warren.
